The Taipan Group's 247profits e-Dispatch
Baltimore, New York, Chicago, Berlin, Bonn, London and Paris
August 18-19, 2004
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***The much-predicted real-estate crash fails to gather speed. Mortgage
rates down, applications for home loans up! Our IMH:NYSE play is trading
just shy of US$25� plus more good stock news to follow.
***Where are the Germans? Where are the Russians? Where are the grimly
determined athletes?
***Not Everyone Is Getting Battered in Today's Market
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>From the Desk of J. Christoph Amberger
Dear Friend,
"Where are the Germans?"
Coach Bin, my Chinese fencing coach, appeared puzzled at the glaring
absence of German fencers from the Olympic medal rosters.
For that matter, where are the Russians? Not just in fencing, but anywhere?
Where did all the grimly determined Russian and East German athletes that
used to give the West a run for its ideological money every four years
disappear to? Can "Old Europe" produce above-average results only in
totalitarian athlete factories? Or are we witnessing the first indications "that
much of Europe is turning into a continent of geezers," as Jim Hoagland so
aptly put it last May.
The US, however, had reason to celebrate: Two young American women
won gold and bronze in women's individual saber - an event that wasn't
open to women until just a few years ago - winning the first US gold in that
sport in a century� and in one fell swoop harvesting as many US medals as
have been won by US athletes of either sex in that sport since the beginning
of the Olympic Games.
You'd think that this might be worth a bit of ink to the American press. But
as the two young ladies belong to no discernible ethnic minority, have no
apparent sob story (alcoholic grandmother, dead pet gerbil), and - worse! -
compete in a sport that requires a wardrobe more extensive than a telegenic
swimsuit, this here will be as much public coverage as you'll see about it.
***It's a mad, mad, mad, mad world. Marketers used to argue that they
weren't selling caskets� that people would buy more than one of any given
product.
Leave it to Costco to break new ground: You now can have all your funeral
arrangements made at 30% off with the major US discounter� while you
have your hearse's tires replaced at the store's automotive service bay.
***A Chicago entrepreneur is taking the challenge out of rope jumping: He
took the obstructive middle out of a jump rope and now sells you two
twirling strings for less than 20 bucks.
Can you spell "Creative Destruction"?
Schumpeter never saw that one coming.
***The much-predicted real estate crash that isn't is gathering speed:
A week after the Fed raised rates for the second time, mortgage rates are
down and new applications for US home loans rose while refinancings
surged. The Mortgage Bankers Association's seasonally adjusted market
index rose for the week ending August 13 by a whopping 11.9% to 689.4.
Its refinancing index jumped by 20.9 % percent to 1,982.7.
Would it surprise you to learn that our mortgage and real estate play,
IMH:NYSE, is not only trading just shy of US$25 now� but has reported
second-quarter estimated taxable income of US$58.0 million or US$0.88
per diluted share, compared to US$28.6 million or US$0.56 per diluted
share for the same period last year. IMH's book value per share increased
61% to US$11.19 at June 30, 2004, compared to US$6.96 at June 30,
2003 - enabling the company to increase its quarterly dividend to US$0.75
per common share in the second quarter�
Editor's Pick: $3 a gallon? $4 a gallon?
The Big Three automakers have already invested billions in alternative
energy. And so has Big Oil. Because they know what's coming.
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into $12 to $18. Or more. But you'll have to act fast. Alternative energy will
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Earnings Announcements for Thursday, August 19, 2004:
Agile Software Corp., Autodesk Inc., BJ's Wholesale Club, Blue Coat
Systems Inc., Brown Shoe Co., Ciena Corp., Electronics Boutique
Holdings, Flowers Foods Inc., Gymboree Corp., Hibbett Sporting Goods,
Hormel Foods Corp., Limited Inc., Navistar International Corp., Novell
Inc., Party City Corp., Petco Animal Supplies Inc., Qualstar Corp., Saks
Inc., Shoe Carnival Inc., Staples, Sycamore Networks Inc., Weider
Nutrition International, Winn-Dixie Stores Inc., and Zargon Energy Trust are
some of the companies releasing earnings.
Brought to you by your free daily "Fear and Greed" e-newsletter. You can
sign up for your copy here:
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***Quote of the Day:
"American public passion for the Olympics has withered ever since the
fall of the Soviet Union because America has lacked a real, political
rival, not because America has lacked athletic rivals. Who wants to
watch America and Britain go at it? It's boring. When Al Qaeda fields a
team - and hey, if 'Palestine' can have one, why not Al Qaeda? - you
can bet Americans will care again."
--Ben Shapiro, August 18, 2004
***WORLD OF PROFITS***
*** "For tomorrow, our indicators hint at a repeat performance of
Monday's bearish curve. Spread your safety net at around 1%."
Moving between 12,194.41 and 12,269.36, Hong Kong's Hang Seng
supported our indicators' bearish sentiment by finishing the day at
12,228.54, down 27.58 points (0.23%).
At this point, our indicators are losing their synchronicity: two thirds point to
a bullish upside of 0.8%, with a chance for a close 0.4% below today's.
*** "For tomorrow, the indicators point to a laboriously bullish day� which
is to say, a day with an upside below 0.5%."
How about that! The Nikkei 225 for once listened to the percolations of our
indicators, closing at 10,774.26, up 48.29 points (0.45%). (We should
CHARGE for this service!)
Now, our indicators again wax obscure. There is a strong bullish tinge in
tomorrow's outlook, with a realistic upside of 0.6%. But exporters are
hinting at a countertrend that could sink the index by 0.2%.
***DESK OF DENHOLM***
This just in from Taipan's resident Editor-at-Large, Martin Denholm:
***Singapore Still Swinging: There's no stopping Singapore these days. The
country's economy took off during the second quarter, storming ahead at an
annualized 11.9% pace - the fastest in ten years. Would you believe that was
almost 3% higher than Trade and Industry Ministry estimates? Manufacturing
posted a 20.6% leap, while services recorded 11.6% growth.
Such stellar expansion led the government to raise its full-year estimate from
a range of 5.5%-7.5% to 8%-9% instead - a mark that would make
Singapore Asia's second best performing economy after China.
***Back to Work in Oz: Snapping a three-month losing streak, Australia's
economy rebounded from its slowest growth in a year and added 21,600
jobs in July. That kept the unemployment rate at 5.7%, close to the 23-year
low of 5.5% set in May.
As the government's income tax cuts and A$3,000 child credit payments
kick in, consumers are heading to the stores, eager to spend their extra
money. That's leading retailers to hire additional part-time staff. While July's
retail sales have yet to be announced, I'd expect them to be good following a
2.1% rise in June - the biggest increase in three years.
***Kiwi Joy: Jet across the Tasman Sea and you'll find more happy New
Zealanders joining the ranks of the gainfully employed. Turned out to be a
great second quarter for the country, with the economy generating twice as
many new jobs as forecast (18,000) and pushing the unemployment rate
down to a 17-year low of 4%. With its population of four million, New
Zealand now proudly owns the lowest jobless rate of the 27 countries that
make up the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
Just last month, Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard said labor conditions
were "tight." Bet he's a bit more relaxed now! New Zealanders are using the
extra income to fund purchases of new cars and consumer goods. Economic
growth in the year to March accelerated to 5%.
But in raising interest rates to 6%, Bollard cited rising inflationary pressures in
the economy, so this news may well force him to hike rates again.
***Last Month of Life for US Airways? The struggle in the airline sector
continues. Yet another company finds itself teetering on the edge of the
dreaded Chapter 11 precipice. US Airways, the nation's seventh largest
carrier, warned employees and investors that it could file for bankruptcy
protection as soon as mid September if it doesn't cut costs immediately.
This would mark the second period of protection for the airline after an
eight-month spell in 2002 and 2003. Despite lowering its costs during that
time, it still needs to reduce its budget by US$800 million. It's already
eliminated 20 routes from its Pittsburgh hub and persuaded pilots to take a
12.5% pay cut with longer hours until 2008.
***Oh, Canada: As one airline prepares to enter Chapter 11, another
emerges from the mire. After agreeing to wholesale restructuring, including
slashing 25% of its workforce, Air Canada received 99% approval to set sail
without creditor protection on August 23. Creditors will assume a 46% stake
in the new company, the rather long-winded Air Canada Enterprises
Aviation Holdings.
Time for me to fly, too. See you tomorrow.
***TAIPAN TIDINGS***
*** "These Banks Harbor Nuclear Secrets that Could Vaporize Your
Wealth"
Hidden financial time bombs lying in America's big banks are about to
detonate and cause total economic chaos� with fallout so great it will make
the S&L crisis of the late eighties look benign. Buffet calls it "a mega-
catastrophe waiting to happen." Fortune Magazine calls it "the risk that
won't go away." To discover "The Three Fallout Shelters" the government
and America's big banks would prefer you knew nothing about - and to
learn how you can not only use these fallout shelters to stay out of harm's
way but also rack up gains of 1,894%� 896%� 120% and more (just as
we did in 2002-2003), visit:
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J. Christoph Amberger
Executive Publisher
and The Taipan Group's
247profits e-Dispatch Team
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