The Taipan Group's 247profits e-Dispatch
Baltimore, New York, Chicago, Berlin, Bonn, London and Paris
August 19-20, 2004
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***The dollar's and euro's muddy tracks�
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>From the Desk of J. Christoph Amberger
Dear Friend,
The notes were hard, incessant, repetitive, dissonant, and of no recognizable
pattern.
Ping. PaPing. PapaPingg. Pioouuuiiingggg.
It was like Chinese water torture: The best wife of 'em all had asked me to
stay home this morning until the piano tuner had done his dirty deed. And I
had not realized just how many out-of-tune strings are hidden in the depths
of your average upright piano. It took two and a half hours until the man
(who bears a strange resemblance to the mad mail carrier Newman on
"Seinfeld") signaled that he was finished by releasing the sudden cascade of a
Bach fugue.
I thought I was inured to all kinds of noise and immune to distractions. But
after two and a half hours, my brain felt like someone had been playing
acoustic Ping-Pong with it. It's been a while since I wrote a check with such
glee for it finally being over�.
***Reading an article published by our perma-bearish friends at The Daily
Reckoning, I was astonished to find that something actually made sense to
me! Regarding the outlook for the euro, London-based analyst Sven Lorenz
wrote:
"Politicians will always do everything it takes to win the next election. They
peddled the euro with the promise that a united European economy would
create growth and prosperity. But the promises never materialized, and the
voters are growing restless.
"New ideas are needed to win votes. Reintroducing national currencies could
prove the number-one promise that guarantees election victory. Yet most of
the media lack the perspective to report this event in advance. Instead,
whatever the hottest current trend is, the media talk about it as though it will
go on forever. The US dollar fell for two years in a row, and most media
reports make one believe the US dollar is set to fall further.
"Things always change - sometimes in a big way. Mark my words: in a
year's time, talk about the demise of a currency will be focused on the euro,
not the US dollar.
"It will once again hit the majority of investors, commentators and analysts by
surprise - just like the strength of the euro did two years ago."
Could The Daily Reckoning be coming around to seeing it our way? Or are
we so far ahead in our worldview that we're catching up to the stragglers of
the previous cycle?
Whatever the long-term outlook for exchange rates, it looks like the present
continues to be mired in the muddy tracks that dollar and euro have been
trading in for the past six months.
Today's news that the Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators
dropped by 0.3% in July was canceled out by Department of Labor reports
that the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment insurance
dipped by 3,000 to 331,000 last week.
***Not Everybody is Getting Battered in Today's Market
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Earnings Announcements for Friday, August 20, 2004:
Ansoft Corp., Bombay Co., Dillard's Inc., Genesco Inc., Goody's Family
Clothing Inc., Hot Topic, Men's Wearhouse, Phillips-Van Heusen Corp.,
Ross Stores Inc., Shermag Inc., Talbots Inc., and Value Vision International
are some of the companies releasing earnings.
Brought to you by your free daily "WaveStrength Market Report" e-
newsletter. You can sign up for your copy here:
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***Quote of the Day:
"If there is a family of nations, it's a vicious, homicidal, perverted,
degraded, dysfunctional, inbred group of mongrels. But more likely, the
'family of nations' is a myth."
--Ben Shapiro, August 18, 2004
***WORLD OF PROFITS***
*** "At this point, our indicators are losing their synchronicity: two thirds
point to a bullish upside of 0.8%, with a chance for a close 0.4% below
today's."
Hong Kong lived up to its promised upside, closing at 12,396.67, up 168.13
points or 1.37%.
The indicators now signal a full-blown trend reversal: expect the week to end
with loss of up to 1.5%
*** "Now, our indicators again wax obscure. There is a strong bullish tinge
in tomorrow's outlook, with a realistic upside of 0.6%. But exporters are
hinting at a countertrend that could sink the index by 0.2%."
Japan's Nikkei 225 ended the day at 10,903.53, up 129.27 points or
1.20%. Despite its proximity to 11,000, we think we'll see a contraction of
0.5% before the index crosses this magic mark.
***DESK OF DENHOLM***
This just in from Taipan's resident Editor-at-Large, Martin Denholm:
Don't ask me what I was doing up and awake at 4:00 this morning. For
whatever reason, I couldn't sleep, so I flipped on the television and in
between watching sitcom reruns and the Olympics, I found myself watching
CNBC for a while. Watching the show from London focusing on Britain's
FTSE-100 index and the rest of the European markets made me feel back at
home for a few moments. Not that the hosts had much of interest to say,
mind you. In early morning trade, investors seemed to feel as sluggish as I
did, with the markets meandering along in a trading range as tight as a
Hollywood celebrity's new facelift.
This came despite bubbling tensions in Najaf, where yellow-toothed soap-
dodger Moqtada al-Sadr was busy insisting on a truce from US forces
before agreeing to disarm and get out of Dodge along with his Medhi militia.
As I write, US and Iraqi forces are bombing the area surrounding the Imam
Ali mosque where al-Sadr's forces are holed up.
One other story emerging in the wee hours this morning was, of course, yet
another new high for oil prices - around US$47.30. Ho-hum. You know, I
could take a vacation and just ask my 247profits colleagues to run the same
story every day for me. "Oil prices shot to a new high today
(blah�blah�blah�)." Actually, oil prices just hit US$48.20. Unbelievable.
***Sales Streak Snapped: Well, it had to happen eventually. Tapped-out
British consumers finally took a break from spending in July, sending retail
sales down for the first time in 14 months.
Following a 1% rise in June, sales edged down 0.4% as clothing stores
endured a 2.7% sales decline - the biggest since September 2002.
One thing that always bugs me with these retail sales reports is that
economists always seem to cite the weather as a reason for a rise or fall.
Doesn't matter what the numbers are, it's always because of the darn
weather! It's infuriating. For goodness' sake, change the record, boys!
You don't think it could perhaps be because the Bank of England's five
interest rate hikes since November (to 4.75%) are now finally beginning to
bite? Or maybe because consumers just don't feel like shopping? What a
bunch of buffoons.
***Blazin' in Brazil: No retail slowdown for Brazil. The exact opposite, in
fact, as the sector stretched its sales growth to a seventh straight month in
June with an impressive 12.8% jump. That followed a 9.9% gain in April and
a 10% surge in May, as declining unemployment kept Brazilians spending.
So it's no surprise to see Brazilian industrial production also extending its
bullish run. June marked the tenth straight month that year-over-year output
rose, with the 13% jump the biggest monthly gain since February 2000.
While both sets of figures are excellent, the Brazilian central bank could be
tempted to raise interest rates, which already stand at 16%, in order to keep
inflation in check.
Talk to you tomorrow - same time, same place.
***TAIPAN TIDINGS***
Don't Miss this Important Market Warning:
You must act immediately to prepare for the volatile market ahead.
Current economic, political and security factors are forming a turbulent
market climate that will bring masses of unprepared investors to their knees.
But a select few inventors who see it coming - and act accordingly - will
prosper.
Don't be left out. View the Full Report right here:
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J. Christoph Amberger
Executive Publisher
and The Taipan Group's
247profits e-Dispatch Team
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