A Federal U-Turn
The Daily Reckoning
Ouzilly, France
Wednesday, August 25, 2004
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*** Bill's gardener...a teenage lottery winner...Warren
Buffett...
*** Eric Fry goes to Disneyland...
*** Hedge funds, property, women...when should you
purchase?
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"If I can't take it with me, I'm not going!"
- Sign on wall in a New Mexico restaurant
All this miserable canoodling...
Day after day...hour after hour...
Year after year...until you finally, in a fit of reason,
come to your senses, give it all up...and drop dead! After
a lifetime of earning, saving, investing...you go on to
your reward without a farthing in your pocket, leaving no
forwarding address for your brokerage statements.
Yesterday, Damien, our part-time gardener, brought over
presents - including a bottle of fine Bordeaux.
"Damien, we should be giving you presents...not you giving
us presents," we said, thanking him.
"Well, I used to work for this guy near Chatellerault. An
old guy who died a few years ago. I worked on his gardens,
of course. But then he died, and I didn't think much about
him.
"But then they called me to a lawyer's office in
Chatellerault not long ago. I was afraid I was going to be
arrested or something. But I came to find out the guy had
left me his house! So I'm just celebrating a little...
"You're not going to give up gardening, are you?"
"Nah...I'm not doing anything different. I already have a
house...and I eat well. And I like to work. Besides, I
can't sleep...I only sleep four hours per night. That's why
I work two jobs..."
Damien bustles around our place from 6 a.m. until
noon...then, he goes to work for the local road maintenance
crew. Money seems to have no meaning for him.
"Wouldn't you like to take a vacation?" we asked.
"They force me to take a vacation from my work [at the
county], but I don't want to go anywhere. I like it
here..."
Meanwhile, from the Daily Mail comes more evidence that
money cannot buy happiness, even at today's EZ credit
rates. A young girl won over $2 million in the UK's
National Lottery to become the eighth richest teenager in
Britain. What came next for her was a series of pointless
spending sprees...and brainless boyfriends...ending,
according to yesterday's report, about where it began -
sitting in front of the television for long hours of the
day, wondering what to do with herself.
Money seems to bring so little contentment we wonder why
people spend so much time and effort trying to get it.
But this is just one of life's many mysteries.
Another one that comes to our attention today is how the
teetering, tottering, shumbling, shambling financial
markets are finally going to get up off the couch and do
something. The Dow, the dollar, gold - all have been
tethered, like junkyard dogs. The Dow to 10,000...gold to
$400...the dollar to $1.20 per euro. Each time they try a
run for it, they get yanked back.
There's been no meltdown, no melt-up...no breakdown...no
breakout...no bear...no bull...
Nothing has happened for so long people have come to
believe nothing will ever happen. There are now 9,000 hedge
funds, many of them betting that they can continue to
borrow short and lend long forever. [Ed. Note: Dan Denning
has developed a new antidote to the market malaise. He
thinks this is the only way to make money in the current
environment. The results are remarkable. Using the Boyd
Cycle to manufacture a decision process, Denning picks
winning trades with military accuracy. Here's the
explanation:
The OODA Loop
http://www.youreletters.com/t/50117/3785758/645057/0/ ]
"I mean," Ken Fisher explained to us, "we thought the twin
deficits were a trigger mechanism and that the carry trades
would be wiped out. Now we know they were not. The dollar
has not collapsed as people thought it would."
Warren Buffett, however, has bet $19 billion that the
dollar will fall. But Warren has a quality that few hedge
fund managers can afford: patience. The hedge fund manager
must show decent results each quarter...Buffett can afford
to wait. Sooner or later, the day will come when what must
happen someday will happen. When that happens, Warren
Buffett - if he is still alive - will get his reward.
Then, he can go to his Greater Reward like the rest of us -
penniless.
But with a smile on his face.
In the meantime, here's Eric with more news:
---------------------
Eric Fry, reporting from the Happiest Place on Earth...
- Your New York editor engaged in a bit of masochism
yesterday by treating his family to a day at Disneyland.
After depositing $394 at the entrance for six tickets, your
editor attempted to recoup his sizeable investment...he
never had a chance.
- He could have spent one solid week in the park and never
felt compensated for the price of admission. To the
contrary, he experienced a kind of negative
amortization...the longer he strolled around the park, the
less he wanted to be there. The physical grounds at
Disneyland were as antiseptic as usual, of course.
But impeccable hygiene only takes you so far.
- Many of the most popular rides and attractions were
closed for renovation. Those that were operating were as
entertaining as always. But your New York editor simply
could not escape the idea that he could have spent $394
much more creatively. "Who can afford to pay that kind of
money?" he wondered to himself, as he wandered around a
half-empty amusement park.
- Something is broken, dear reader. Thirty years ago, your
New York editor visited a very different sort of Disneyland
- a Disneyland that charged a nominal entrance fee and then
sold individual tickets for its rides. (Remember the "E-
ticket"?)
- Disneyland is still a very nice place...but it has become
a very expensive very nice place...much like the New York
Stock Exchange. Stocks are still treating investors well,
but the price of admission seems a bit out of control.
- Stocks continue to command rich valuations, despite the
fact that oil prices are nearing $50 a barrel,
semiconductor companies are struggling to sell computer
chips and Wal-Mart's sales growth is grinding to a
halt...Why should stocks continue to command rich
valuations? Could it be that share prices have become so
expensive that even falling oil prices won't help them?
- Oil prices tumbled for a third consecutive day Tuesday,
as the price of light crude for October delivery fell 84
cents, to $45.21 a barrel, yesterday. The gold price also
retreated, falling $7.30, to $405.00 an ounce.
- Meanwhile, the stock market slumped for the second
straight day, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 26
points, to 10,099, and the Nasdaq dropped 2 points, to
1,837.
- Will stocks soon resume their winning ways? Unlikely,
says one savvy investment professional known to your New
York editor. To the contrary, the anonymous market seer
predicts the stock exchange is about to become the
unhappiest place on earth, as the Nasdaq tumbles about 40%
from current levels.
- Hold on to your hats, Mouseketeers, the stock market
might become a little dangerous.
---------------------
Bill Bonner, back in France...
*** There is the "flim"...and there is the "flam."
The flim is just investors' instinct to do the very worst
thing at the very worst time. Ordinarily, investors have no
interest in tech stocks, for example. That's why tech
stocks are usually cheap. As with mining stocks, investors
know they are little more than a hole in the ground with a
liar on top.
Occasionally the average investor will take an interest in
tech or mining stocks - that is, after the stocks have made
the papers and already become preposterously expensive. His
interest peaks at the very moment when he can lose the most
money in them.
But flim without flam is like Bonnie without
Clyde...Democrats without Republicans - you need both of
them to give the lumps a proper shellacking. Fortunately,
there is the creative, innovative, profit-seeking spirit of
Wall Street to offer investors ways to part company with
their money.
Through no fault of his own, a man makes money - say by
flipping houses in San Diego. The next thing you know, he
is at a cocktail party bragging about the hedge fund he's
put his money in. It's gone up 25% in the last 12 months,
he tells his audience. Not knowing any better, the poor
fellows around him want in too. None seem to realize that
the hedge funds have no better ways of making money than
the regular mutual funds...and no greater likelihood of
making him rich than an ordinary common stock.
Less, even. For the more fashionable the hedges become, the
more willing investors are to pay the flam - fees to the
fund managers. What's more, hedge funds tend to be in zero-
sum transactions - bets for which there is a loser for
every winner. Out of 9,000 hedge funds, some must be
winners; others must be losers. Someone must take the other
side of every trade. Over time, all must come out about
even - minus the flam.
And hedge fund managers are no different from other
investors - only better paid. They get caught up in
whatever delusion is popular...and sucked into whatever
trade has the most potential to ruin them. Currently, it is
the belief that they can take advantage of the Fed's
negative borrowing rates - while lending their own money
long at higher ones. As long as nothing happens, they look
like geniuses. But somehow, sometime something always comes
along to blow them up. We wait to find out what.
*** Everybody's talking about a bubble in real estate. But
"Can you really have a bubble when everyone worries about
one?" asked Ken Fisher.
Residential property in the United States has risen 50% -
or $6 trillion - in the last five years. This is one of the
fastest rates of increase ever recorded.
What's next? Prices could flatten out. They could go down.
Or they could go up.
We don't know. Buying real estate on the basis of national
trends is a little like getting married because Congress
lowers tax rates for married couples. The real issues are
in the details - what woman, when, how?
What property? At what price? Where?
Our advice: Forget the big picture. Only buy
investments...or get married...when the object of your
desires is irresistible.
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---------------------
The Daily Reckoning PRESENTS: Here's a controversial essay.
Gary Shilling explains why the CPI OVERSTATES inflation and
why fears of future inflationary spikes are misplaced. His
conclusion? The Fed will be cutting rates within months...
A FEDERAL U-TURN
by Gary Shilling
Until recently, a revival of inflation in the United States
was a major concern for investors. The spotlight was on
employment and consumer commodities, but the recent slump
in payroll jobs convinced many that perhaps the inflation
scare was overblown.
Now, even though inflation worries have receded, along with
the consumer price index, can investors forget about
inflation? Keep in mind that the price of gasoline leaped
by more than 40% since December 2003 to its summer peak,
and the price of milk - another frequently purchased item -
has risen more than 10% in the past year.
The price spikes in these items - necessities for most
households - have convinced many commentators that despite
June's soft patch, inflation in general is spiraling
upward.
We disagree: Even if some prices have risen sharply,
investors should not position themselves for inflation.
Here's one reason why. Gasoline only accounts for 2.7% of
consumer outlays, while milk accounts for even less, 0.2%.
This concentration on small purchases neglects the big
price declines in big-ticket, infrequently purchased items.
These items are often discretionary, and purchase can be
postponed if price increases appear temporary - or delayed
if further price drops are expected.
New and used vehicles are in this category; outlays for
autos and parts account for 5.2% of consumer spending.
Computers are another example and, adjusted for the rise in
computing power, their cost to consumers has dropped
spectacularly.
Despite the widespread belief that inflation is much higher
than reported, the evidence is that the consumer price
index is overstated. A congressional study found that the
CPI is biased upward in four areas. First, since the index
has fixed weights, it doesn't account for the tendency to
buy more of what's cheap and less of what's expensive.
Second, the group of retail stores sampled monthly in the
survey of selling prices changes slowly over time. As a
result, rapidly expanding discounters like Wal-Mart are
underreported, while those stores selling at full price are
overweighted.
Third, quality improvements are understated, meaning that
prices are recorded as higher than they would be with
proper adjustment. Computers are one example.
The fourth upward bias in the CPI results from the fixed-
weight base period, currently 1982-1984. DVD players,
wireless phones and lots of other new tech items didn't
exist 20 years ago, but now account for significant
portions of consumer spending. And their prices have fallen
dramatically, so the CPI is overstated, since it doesn't
include them.
This study estimated that the annual increase in the CPI
was overstated by 1.1%. While some subsequent adjustments
reduced the CPI by 0.2% per year, it still shows much more
inflation than an unbiased measure would report.
In fact, the U.S. government has begun issuing chain-
weighted CPI figures along with the 1982-1984 official
numbers. The chained indexes correct for the substitution
and new products problems and consistently show lower
inflation rates, both for the total CPI and the core index
that excludes food and energy.
But inflationary fears are so deeply embedded in most
Americans that even if they were able to set aside all of
their convictions that inflation is being vastly
underestimated, they would still believe that the Federal
Reserve is oblivious to the threat and is even promoting it
with rapid monetary expansion, especially since the
beginning of 2003.
My problem with this, though, is that, besides the
traditional monetary measures, there are numerous other
measures of money, like credit cards, which many consumers
use to buy everything from groceries to gasoline to
clothing. In any event, the money supply in the past year
has grown less than nominal GDP and has been far from
inflationary.
Furthermore, global excess capacity should keep American
business pricing power in check, and this, in turn, will
maintain steady pressure on labor costs. In addition, the
Wal-Marts of the world are another important factor in
keeping inflation low as cost cutting and lower prices are
made possible by productivity enhancement.
I see the rise in inflation fears as being one more brief
uptick within the disinflationary trend of the past 23
years. And so far, the Federal Reserve apparently agrees.
The central bank will probably raise its federal funds
target rate at a moderate pace. We envision a quarter-point
increase at each policy meeting until the end of the year.
And then, as concerns about inflation turn to renewed
worries about deflation, the Federal Reserve will switch
from raising to cutting interest rates.
How's that for contrarian?
Regards,
Gary Shilling
for The Daily Reckoning
Editor's Note: Dr. Gary Shilling is president of A. Gary
Shilling & Co. Inc., an investment advisory and economic
consulting firm and publisher of the monthly INSIGHT
newsletter.
Not only has Dr. Shilling beaten the stock market by a wide
margin over many years, he has provided consistently
accurate forecasts to his subscribers. Twice ranked as Wall
Street's top economist by polls in Institutional Investor,
Dr. Shilling was also named the country's No. 1 Commodity
Trader Advisor by Futures magazine. And last year,
MoneySense ranked him as the third best stock market
forecaster, right behind Warren Buffett.
A regular columnist for Forbes magazine, Gary Shilling
appears frequently on radio and television business shows
and has written six books, including Is Inflation Ending?
Are You Ready? in 1983 and, more recently, two books
detailing his forecast for the new world order and its
consequences for your wallet. For his very latest research,
see:
INSIGHT
http://www.agaryshilling.com/insightdr.html
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