Nelayan, Last week was good to us as we went 6-3 on a star basis. View my 2004 previous picks here: http://www.freeunderdog.com/2004-nfl.html.
I like nine games this week, five of which I have provided for everyone below. I've also included my 2004 NFL FreeAgency Review. Enjoy... Early Bird Special - Sign up Now and Save $50 --------------------------------------------- Over the past three seasons, I have produced a documented winning record in handicapping the NFL which has resulted in +5,305 units for subscribers. For $100 per-game players, that's $5,305 in profit. Check out my prior season picks week-by-week here: http://www.freeunderdog.com/previouspicks-NFL.html Take advantage of my pre-season early bird special. Purchase a season subscription to my Premium NFL newsletter now and save $50 off the regular price. Check out my Premium Picks packages here: https://srv02.velocera-eng.com/~freeunderdog.com/subscription/subscribers/paid_newsletter_form.php NFL Handicapping Tips --------------------- Over the next few weeks, in addition to my picks for the NFL preseason, I'll be sharing a lot of information and editorial with you including: - My NFL regular season philosophy (http://www.freeunderdog.com/regularseasonphilosophy.html) - My NFL pre-season betting philosophy (http://www.freeunderdog.com/preseasonphilosophy.html) - NFL Draft Winners and Losers (http://www.freeunderdog.com/2004-NFL-draft-winners-losers.html) - NFL FreeAgency Preview (below) - How to bet the NFL money-line The Dog 2004 NFL FreeAgency Review ------------------------------------- What an amazing off-season in the National Football League. Some of the leagues best and most recognizable players will be putting on new uniforms this August. The Buccaneers dis-banded their Super Bowl defense, losing John Lynch and Warren Sapp to the AFC West. Both of these players are on the downside of their career, but they are winners, and will contribute in a major way to their new teams. The Vikings added Marcus Robinson which makes their WR tandem nearly impossible to defend. Antoine Winfield will bolster their defensive backfield, an area of need for Minnesota. We also saw maybe the biggest deal in the history of the NFL when the Redskins sent Champ Bailey and a 2nd round pick to Denver for ballyhooed running back Clinton Portis. People will pay close attention to the performance of Portis and Tatum Bell, the RB whom Denver drafted with the second pick they acquired from the Redskins. Portis will not have the benefit of a great offensive line in DC, so it should be! interesting. Many of the off-season acquisitions will go a long toward determining how their teams perform this season. Significant Signings and Their New Team --------------------------------------- Jeff Garcia, Browns, QB � Will be interesting to see if one the worst offensive lines in the game can protect him. John Lynch, Broncos, S � See below Jesse Armstead, Panthers, LB � Armstead is getting old, but he can still play. Garrison Hearst, Broncos, RB � Great locker room guy. Could get 100-150 carries. Ian Gold, Buccaneers, LB � If he has recovered from ACL tear, he is a steal for the Bucs. Marcellus Wiley, Cowboys, DE � Great pickup by Parcells. Troy Vincent, Bills, CB � Will take over for Winfield. Antoine Winfield, Vikings, CB � Great, great addition for the Vikings. Grant Wistrom, Seahawks, DE � Solid get for the Hawks here. Shawn Springs, Redskins, CB � Will he ever play like he did in college? The Redskins and Dan Snyder�s wallet hope so. Marcus Robinson, Vikings, WR � Could flourish playing opposite Moss. Injuries have been a problem. Walt Harris, Redskins, CB � will compete for a starting spot but will probably be the nickel back for the Skins. Warren Sapp, Raiders, DT � Too old? Come on, he�ll help the Silver and Black�s defense right away. Robaire Smith, Texans, DT � Bolsters Houston�s defensive line. Duce Staley, Steelers, RB � This guy can run. Dez White, Falcons, WR � Has great talent, now he has a quarterback who can get him the ball. Bertrand Berry, Cardinals, DE � see below Thomas Jones, Bears, RB � began to show flashes last season of the talent that made him a first round pick by the Cardinals Eddie George, Cowboys, RB � Parcells did it once with Otis Anderson who was 29 when he gained over 1000 yards for the Giants. Cowboys fans hope this veteren pickup will be enough to get them over the top in the NFC east. The two most intriguing teams of the off-season were by far the Washington Redskins and Denver Broncos who completely overhauled their rosters in hopes of returning to their glory days. The Washington Redskins started the off-season off with the announcement that Joe Gibbs would return as head coach. His teams were dominant in the eighties and nineties, with stifling defenses, a grind it out running game, and well timed play action passes. Snyder and Gibbs quickly acquired the running back they so coveted when they sent Champ Bailey to Denver for budding superstar Clinton Portis. The Redskins then added Shawn Springs and Walt Harris to fortify the corner spot left vacant by Bailey, and drafted Sean Taylor out of Miami with their first pick in the draft. While the pick angered Kellen Winslow, Gibbs and company made the right decision. Taylor should become a perennial pro bowl safety in the league. Michael Barrow was added to the linebacking corps and Cornelius Griffin along the defensive line. The Denver Broncos have been plagued by an average defense since John Elway�s retirement and prior. After acquiring Bailey, the shut down corner the franchise has never had, they added John Lynch who will bring tremendous leadership to the defense. The Broncos also resigned Al Wilson, who is the heart and soul of the entire team. They lost Bertrand Berry, who lead the team in sacks last season, to the Cardinals, but held onto Reggie Hayward who is a similar player. Keep an eye on Luther Ellis, who has not played for two seasons due to injuries. When healthy, he is a terror along the defensive line. Ellis could the steal of the off-season. Denver drafted DJ Williams of Miami who has unlimited potential at outside linebacker, but Denver�s recent first round selections have been anything but exceptional. Williams should change that, and they�ll need him to right away. He should start from the get go in Denver, a team in need of solid linebacker play after the loss of John Moble! y and Ian Gold. Overall a busy offseason for a lot of players and teams. These changes should make for a 2004 in which some players re-invent themselves and help their teams reach new heights. Complimentary Selections ---------------------------------- *Indianapolis -4 (-110) over Buffalo Indianapolis can't be happy with their offensive performance last week as they got trounced at home by the Jets 31-7. Home favorites off a home loss in which they scored 10 or less points bounce back very nicely against the spread in the preseason. It's the preseason but that doesn't mean the offense didn't work extra hard this week and has something to prove. In addition, home favorites who lost big last week also perform well against the spread the following week. One unit on Indy. *NY Giants +3 (-110) over NY Jets *NY Giants straight-up (+135) over NY Jets I know, I know - the Jets always win this preseason matchup. The theory goes that the Jets, historically the bottom-dwellers take this game more seriously and beat the Giants when they could because they certainly couldn't beat them in the regular season. Well, times have changed. The Giants won 4 games last year. One could argue the Jets are the better team. Also, the head coach has changed. Tom Coughlin is a tough as nails coach who demands the best from his players no matter when they are playing. After their 31-7 trashing of the Colts, the Jets will be taking it easier this game. In week three of the preseason, dogs facing opponents off back-to-back wins with the last being a blowout win cover nearly nine out of ten times. One unit on NY at +3 and one unit on NY to win outright. *Tennessee +3.5 (-110) over Dallas *Tennessee straight-up (+160) over Dallas Two coaches that like to win in the preseason matchup on Monday Night Football. In weeks 3 and 4 of the preseason, teams off two straight wins when getting points cover the spread nearly three quarters of the time. Anything can happen in the preseason so I like getting points (over a field goal) here with the better, deeper team. *St. Louis -3 (-110) over Washington Anyone who sat last Monday night's game had to feel embarrased for the Rams. They were awful and the frustration was all over their faces. That sort of game gets players chomping at the bit for next week's game so they can prove to everyone (including themselves) that they aren't that bad. Combine this with the fact that St. Louis is winless in the preseason and has yet to score more than 10 points and we have a situation where the Rams should be trying a little bit harder than their competition. Home teams off two straight losses tend to beat the spread in their next game. One unit on the Rams. *Miami/Tampa Bay Over 33 Thirty three? Come on. That's way too low. The public is overreacting to the fact that Tampa Bay scored 6 points and Miami got shut out last week. These are good reasons to bet the over. Just as Dallas put forth an extra offensive effort last week following their week 1 shutout, these teams will as well. They've been focusing alot on offense this week to figure out how to improve from last week's horrible performances. Games in the last couple of weeks of the preseason in which the O/U is under 35 and involve a road team off a loss have gone OVER 19 out of 22 times over the past five seasons. Expect this one to as well. One unit on the over. **I have four premium games (including two 2-star picks) for premium subscribers. To order: https://srv02.velocera-eng.com/~freeunderdog.com/subscription/subscribers/paid_newsletter_form.php Wunderdog Premium Selections -------------------------------------- Early Bird Special - Subscribe NOW and Save $50 My season subscription gets you every pick from the preseason through the Super Bowl for about $20 per week. If you subscribe now, you'll save $50 off the regular price. You can also purchase weekly picks for just 39 dollars or a monthly package for $99 (40% off the weekly rate). Check out the subscription options here: https://srv02.velocera-eng.com/~freeunderdog.com/subscription/subscribers/paid_newsletter_form.php ========================= NFL Football Resources ========================= Six Reasons Why Underdogs are the Smart Bet in the NFL: http://www.freeunderdog.com/regularseasonphilosophy.html 2004 NFL FreeAgency Review: http://www.freeunderdog.com/2004-NFL-free-agency.html 2004 Draft Winners and Losers: http://www.freeunderdog.com/2004-NFL-draft-winners-losers.html Up-to-Date NFL ATS Records: http://www.freeunderdog.com/nfl-football-ats-standings.htm NFL Game-of-the-Week Preview: http://www.freeunderdog.com/nfl-football-game-of-the-week-preview.html Live NFL Football Lines: http://www.freeunderdog.com/lines-and-odds-nfl.html ====================================================================== Star Ratings Explained ------------------------------ I list a * rating next to every game. This rating indicates my confidence (1 star = least, 4 stars = most). When I track my results, I weight each game based on these ratings. * = 1 Star (bet 100 units) * = 2 Stars (bet 200 units) * = 3 Stars (bet 300 units) * = 4 Stars (bet 400 units) For a more detailed explanation of units and how I use and calculate them, check this out: http://www.freeunderdog.com/units-explained.html. Money-Line / Straight-up Betting Explained ------------------------------------------ Money-line betting (also called straight-up betting) is an alternative way to bet a football game. Instead of using the point spread, you simply pick which team you think will win the game. If that team wins, you win. If that team loses, you lose. Money-line betting is an effective way to make a lot while risking a little by picking underdogs to win the game outright. For a detailed description of the money line, go here: http://www.freeunderdog.com/moneyline.html --------------------------------------------------------- To manage your subscriptions (add or remove yourself from individual newsletters), change your email preferences (email address, text vs. html format), or view your account and order history, please click the link at the very bottom of this newsletter. --------------------------------------------------------- Pass this Newsletter on to a Friend! If you know someone who would like to receive my newsletter and picks, please direct them here: http://www.freeunderdog.com. --------------------------------------------------------- The information in this newsletter is based on opinion is intended for informational purposes only. No guarantees or warranties are implied. Use this information at your own risk. --------------------------------------------------------- Good luck! 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