The Taipan Group's 247profits e-Dispatch
Baltimore, New York, Chicago, Berlin, Bonn, London and Paris
August 26-27, 2004
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***Aggravated bulls. Aggravated perma-bears. Oil's speculative bubble.
And more!
***Oil prices are plummeting: US prices are now nearly 13% below last
week's record US$49.40. But why? OPEC isn't pumping more. Yukos is
still in trouble. Read on�
***Don't Miss this Important Market Warning:
You must act immediately to prepare for the volatile market ahead.
Current economic, political and security factors are forming a turbulent
market climate that will bring masses of unprepared investors to their knees.
But a select few inventors who see it coming - and act accordingly - will
prosper.
Don't be left out. View the Full Report right here:
http://www.youreletters.com/t/50702/3785361/556051/70/
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>From the Desk of J. Christoph Amberger
Dear Friend,
If you look up "summer doldrums" in the dictionary, chances are that you'll
find a snapshot of today's market performance next to the explanation. And
it's not just the US market. Both the Nikkei 225 and the Hang Seng closed
within a hair of breakeven.
It's like watching paint dry!
It's aggravating for bulls. And it's aggravating for the perma-bears who
celebrate every 100-point drop in the Dow as the first trumpet heralding
Financial Judgment Day. Even my colleague Bill Bonner appeared to throw
up his hands in disgust when he wrote:
"The Dow, the dollar, gold - all have been tethered, like junkyard dogs. The
Dow to 10,000� gold to $400�the dollar to $1.20 per euro. Each time
they try a run for it, they get yanked back.
"There's been no meltdown, no melt-up� no breakdown, no breakout�
no bear, no bull�
"Nothing has happened for so long people have come to believe nothing will
ever happen."
***But the mere fact that the market has been hugging the flat line this
summer does not mean there was no money to be made: Following the
buying patterns of top insiders, for example, has helped Profit Hog Insider
subscribers make profits of 22%, 15%, 25% and 38% just in the past few
months.
The PHI team recommended buying shares of Biosante Pharmaceuticals on
July 26, knowing that its lead product candidate had just completed Phase II
clinical trials, the company had an upcoming conference presentation, and
insiders had recently purchased more than 1.35 million shares of the stock.
Yesterday, they gave their members the sell signal, pulling in solid gains of
15% in less than one month's time.
Here's what one satisfied member had to say:
"Just wanted to drop you a quick note to say 'nice call.' I only wish I
had bought more of it. I got in at US$5.63 on 7/28 and sold this
morning at US$6.88. A little over 21.8% in less than a month, I could
get used to that. Thanks!"
--Greg
(If you join Profit Hog Insider today, you'll learn about a company whose
insiders just bought more than 600,000 shares and could launch as rumors
swirl that it is a prime acquisition target!)
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***Oil prices are plummeting: Crude oil for October delivery rose six cents
to US$43.50 a barrel. It earlier dropped to US$39.80 a barrel on the New
York Mercantile Exchange, its fifth consecutive drop since the futures price
peaked a week ago.
US prices are now nearly 13% below last week's record US$49.40.
Where does that relief come from? Has demand stopped growing? OPEC
isn't pumping more, my brother-in-law's Ford Excursion isn't suddenly
getting more than 15 miles a gallon on the highway, the Strategic Petroleum
Reserve hasn't opened the floodgates� and Yukos is still in trouble.
Could it be that oil's speculative bubble has been punctured to a degree that
we'll see US$30 per barrel again before we see US$50?
***For tomorrow, I have asked my colleague Brit Ryle to provide you with
one of his most recent research reports.
Brit has long followed the oil markets, and he thinks it's time to take a
serious look at real alternatives to petroleum power. You can find out about
his latest recommendation in this field and the reasoning behind it right here in
the Friday edition of the e-Dispatch.
Earnings Announcements for Friday, August 27, 2004:
Blyth Inc., Gametech International Inc., Kirkland's Inc., Michaels Stores
Inc., and Perry Ellis International are some of the companies releasing
earnings.
***Quote of the Day:
"If you're listening to a rock star in order to get your information on
who to vote for, you're a bigger moron than they are. Why are we rock
stars? Because we're morons. We sleep all day, we play music at night
and very rarely do we sit around reading the Washington Journal
[sic]."
--Alice Cooper
***WORLD OF PROFITS***
*** "Can we trust them again? We remain skeptical� maintaining a
downside of 12,500 for next week, while allowing sufficient space for the
index to graze 12,900 later this week."
After an early high at 12,843.86, Hong Kong's Hang Seng index ended the
day on a sour note, wrapping up business at 12,784.39, down 8.64 points
or 0.07%.
Again, our indicators are flashing red, with worst-case downsides of 1.5%�
but we will stick with yesterday's prediction.
*** "What's ahead? Our forward indicators point to an upside near 11,200
tomorrow."
How 'bout that: the Nikkei 225 peaked at 11,225.95 before ending a mixed
trading day at 11,129.33, down 0.69 points (0.01%).
For tomorrow, our indicators point at a negative potential of minus 0.5%.
***DESK OF DENHOLM***
This just in from Taipan's resident Editor-at-Large, Martin Denholm:
***Rising in Canada: Let's start today with a quick trip north of the border
to Canada, where the nation's statistics agency said retail sales crept up a
mere 0.2% to C$28.7 billion (US$22.1 billion) in June.
Auto retailers enjoyed the only smattering of sales growth during the month,
notching up a 1.5% increase. Other product sales suffered declines, like a
1.7% drop in household equipment such as furniture and electrical items.
While consumers took a break in June, Canada's businesses enjoyed a
profitable end to the second quarter. On the back of an impressive surge in
profits within the energy and manufacturing sectors, overall corporate profits
swelled over 4% to a record C$50.7 billion for the three-month period.
With oil and natural gas prices off to the races, this is hardly surprising. Oil
and gas company profits rose almost 11%, while factory prices enjoyed an
11.3% leap. Energy prices have jumped almost 11% from a year ago.
The jump in prices is affecting Canada's core inflation rate, which swelled to
an annualized rate of 1.9% in July - the highest since December 2003.
The economy is also growing faster than projected, with exports propelling
GDP growth to almost 5% during the second quarter. It's expected to post
2.75% growth this year and 3.5% in 2005.
With the Bank of Canada's target inflation rate at 2%, expect to see interest
rate hikes soon. Don't just take my word for it, though. Quoted in the
Toronto Globe and Mail, Deputy Governor David Longworth said, "We
need to reduce the amount of monetary stimulus [�] to avoid a buildup of
inflationary pressures." That could begin as soon as September 8 at the
bank's next monetary policy meeting. Whether then or in October, look for a
0.25% hike to 2.25% from the present 43-year low of 2%.
***Oil Down! How about that for a headline? London Brent crude slipped
under the US$40 per barrel mark for the first time in three weeks today,
while US light crude fell to US$43.10.
This comes despite another attempt by insurgents to sabotage eight oil
pipelines in southern Iraq. Fortunately, their dastardly mission didn't
succeed, and although exports fell to 68,000 barrels per hour (a 1.6 million
barrel per day pace), little damage was done and officials soon expect
pumping to rise to 80,000 barrels per hour, or around two million barrels per
day.
***Retail Mess. Overall retail sales in August are expected to be "very
messy." That's according to retail economist Michael Niemira, director of
research at the International Council of Shopping Centers, quoted in the
Minneapolis Star Tribune.
To blame: High oil and gasoline prices, which are affecting some Americans'
purchasing power. The devastating effects of Hurricane Charley in Florida
and elsewhere. And the fact that last August's figures received a boost from
tax cuts.
The group pegs sales growth this month at 2.5%, revised down from 3% to
4%. That would be the weakest monthly growth since June 2003.
See you back here tomorrow.
***TAIPAN TIDINGS***
***Rumor has it that the a group called Milanese Gardeners for the Truth is
casting aspersions on St. Augustine's "Confessions."
Apparently, the famous tipping point of Augustine's spiritual enlightenment -
induced by the voice of a child chanting "tolle, lege" in a Milanese garden -
does not jibe with the facts.
The Vatican is hastily backpedaling from its long-held version of events,
acknowledging that the scene may have taken place up to 50 miles south of
the Milanese garden, that the child in question had not yet been born, and
that "tolle, lege" ("pick up and read!") really emanated from a local
newspaper vendor.
But a speaker for the Pontiff stresses, "It's the thought that counts."
J. Christoph Amberger
Executive Publisher
and The Taipan Group's
247profits e-Dispatch Team
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