Nelayan, In this newseltter I've got my overrated and underrated CFB teams as well as a pick for Saturday night's game. Enjoy...
Early Bird Special - Sign up Now and Save $50 --------------------------------------------- Check out my prior season picks week-by-week here: http://www.freeunderdog.com/2003-cfb.html. I was 37-25 (60%) for +1720 units ($1,720 for $100 players) including 65% in the Bowls. Take advantage of my early bird special. Purchase a season subscription to my Premium CFB newsletter now and save $50 off the regular price. Or, purchase an NFL/CFB combo package and save $125. Check out my Premium Picks packages here: https://srv02.velocera-eng.com/~freeunderdog.com/subscription/subscribers/paid_newsletter_form.php. The Dog 2004 College Football Underrated and Overrated Teams ---------------------------------------------------- Six Teams That Will Be Better Than Advertised --------------------------------------------- Utah Urban Meyer, the leader of Utah�s football program has become one of the hot young commodities on the coaching market. Look for his name to become more valuable during the next off-season. Utah returns seven on offense and eight on defense this season. The leading returnees are QB Alez Smith. The defense, however, will be the heart and soul of the football team. DL Jason Kaufusi returns from an injury for his sophomore season. He was the MWC rookie of the year two years ago. Morgan Scalley, a returning FS, was named to the All Mountain West team one year ago. This team will scare bigger football powers early in the season and should coast to the Mountain West title. This team could be the party crasher to the BCS dance this season. Colorado The Buffs finally get to play football following an unreal off-season in which a number of players were labeled rapists by many in the Boulder community. Funny, no one was ever even brought to court over any of the allegations. The fallout caused one coach, Vance Joseph, to lose his job, and six players to transfer for various reasons. On paper, this team looks eerily similar to the one in 2001 that won the Big 12 Championship. 17 starters return, led by Joel Klatt, Jeremy Bloom, Bobby Purify and OLB Akarika Dawn. The Buffs return three offensive lineman but seven have what can be called considerable playing experience from one year ago. Barnett�s teams live and die by the ground game. This team should be able to run the football, which will aid new defensive coordinator Mike Hankwtiz. Hankwitz has reverted back to the 4-3 scheme, one that was successful in Boulder for years prior to the arrival of Barnett and former Defensive Coordinator Vince Okruch. The schedule is much m! ore favorable than one year ago. Colorado State and Washington State suffered significant personnel losses after last season and North Texas tragically lost its quarterback in an auto accident earlier this week. Colorado could very easily head to Columbia, Missouri 3-0. The Buffs will surprise many this season. Alabama Mike Shula has Bama back on the road to respectability. They return six starters on offense led by quarterback Brodie Croyle, and Evan Mathis and JB Closner along the offensive line. TB Ray Hudson averaged 5 yards per carry last season in a backup role. Assuming Croyle has recovered from surgery on his shoulder, this could be the best offense that Tide fans have seen in some time in Tuscaloosa. The defense looks solid on paper and loaded at linebacker where Demeco Ryans, the teams leading tackler last season, and Freddie Roach return. The schedule also looks to favor the Tide as their toughest games come late in the season at LSU and Tennessee. The annual grudge match against Auburn is at home this season as well. This could be the surprise team in the SEC this season. Arizona Out with the old, and in with the new in Tuscon. Mike Stoops, and his very disciplined approach, will overhaul the Cats program. Expect success Sooner than later, no pun intended. Loads of returnees are back but that probably will not be enough this season. While we do not expect a significant number of wins from the Wildcats, they�ll be a good ATS team in 2004. 10 starters return on offense and eight on defense. The offense returns all five offensive lineman and all four defensive lineman, something that really intrigues us about this team. Junior tailback Mike Bell was good one year ago and should excel this season behind a seasoned offensive line. This team will upset someone this season. Our bet is that it will come at home on September 18th when the Cats host the Wisconsin Badgers. Boise State The Broncos only return three starters on offense and six on defense from last seasons WAC Championship team. Somehow, I think HC Dan Hawkins will find a way to plug those holes. The loss of QB Ryan Dinwiddie will hurt but look for Legadu Nanee to be the next stud QB at Boise. The defense will be the strength of this team in the early going. DE Julius Roberts is a returning All WAC selection who will give opposing tackles nightmares. They should upset Oregon State early on their home field. Arizona State The Sundevils return eight offensive starters. Of the eight, quarterback Andrew Walters and WR Derek Hagan are the most important. Walter may be the best pure passer in the country. He sorely missed WR Shaun MacDonald one year ago but will have his timing own this season as two starters return at the receiver position. Hagan was clearly Walters top target one year ago as he hauled in 66 catches for 1,076 yards as a sophomore. On defense, all of the defensive backs return, led by safeties Riccardo Stewart and Josh Barrett. Junior College transfers Quency Darley and DeWayne Hollyfield will be counted on along the defensive line. We�ll learn a lot about the Sundevils when the Iowa Hawkeyes visit Tempe on September 18th. Iowa is a team that Arizona State really should beat outright this season. Six Teams That Will Not Live Up to Expectations ----------------------------------------------- Missouri The Brad Smith show will be coming to a Big 12 stadium near you. It seems that the whole country is jumping on the Mizzou bandwagon but we see many holes within the Tigers. We�ll start off by pointing out that they only return nine starters, four on offense and five on defense. Hi-lighting our question marks are the return of only one offensive lineman and no running backs. Sure Brad Smith is an incredibly gifted collegiate quarterback but Zach Abron was a quality back last season, and the offensive line was effective at keeping opposing rushers away from Smith. One has to question whether those slated to step in will be ready to help lead this team to a Big 12 North title as so many are predicting. Defense, or lack thereof in Columbia has been a problem for years. They have had a terrible time stopping the run against the upper level teams in the Big 12 and with only five starters back from a very average unit one year ago, we again question the merit of their preseason fav! orite status in the Big 12 North. We�ll learn a lot about Missouri when they face Colorado on October 2nd. The Tigers non conference schedule is a joke with dates against Arkansas St., Troy St. and Ball St. before facing Gary Barnett�s Buffaloes. Barnett has never lost to his alma mater. We expect Missouri to be a good football team, but they will not win the North this season. Texas Sure Texas will be a top ten team, but the people in Austin are growing tired of being so close, yet so darn far away. A bevy of talent lives within the program in Austin. Players like Vince Young, Cedric Benson, and Derrick Johnson, are among the best at their position in the country. They return seven starters on offense and defense, and have loads of young studs more than ready to step in and contribute. The schedule is a joke as well. A date at Arkansas is the only thing that may strike a little fear into Horn fans hearts, but Mr. Nutt may get some serious payback this time around. The Horns season will once again come down to the Red River Shootout. There really is no talent disparity in this match-up, but there is a huge difference when it comes to coaching. Even during his days in Chapel Hill, Mac Brown was a lights out recruiter who could not get over the hump against Florida State. Texas will once again win 10 games, but they�ll once again lose to Oklahoma in Dallas! , leading us to label them as a disappointing team in 2004. Oklahoma State How many teams could lose players like Tatum Bell, Josh Fields, and Rashaun Woods and expect to build on a previous season? That answer would be no one. All three were among the nation�s best at their positions and leave a huge gap in the middle of the Pokes offense. They return seven starters on both sides of the ball and will have a respectable defense, but the schedule is brutal once again. The offense will benefit from the return of four offensive lineman, but finding playmakers will be a chore early on for Head Coach Les Miles. The Pokes also play Missouri, Oklahoma and Texas in consecutive weeks. Missouri and Texas fall as road games as well. Les Miles is a wonderful coach and has this program on the right track, but this season will be a step backward for Oklahoma State. Virginia Tech Frank Beamer�s program has finally come down to earth, or so it appears. They will now have to face real competition as well in the new ACC. Tech was only 4-8 ATS last season and we do not see them being any better in 2004. Only four starters return on both sides of the ball. That, coupled with a tumultuous offseason lead us to question what the 2004 season has in store for the Hokies. Bryan Randall returns on offense but he is not what we would label a stellar quarterback. He has benefited from his surrounding talent the past two seasons. It will be interesting to see what he can do this season without Kevin Jones alongside him. All signs point to a more than disappointing season for the Hokies. We�ll be fading them regularly. Ole Miss Gone is Eli Manning. Nuff said right? Not really. Ole Miss will not be a bad team this season, and truthfully, we�ll need to see how much odds makers respect them in the early part of the season to decide if they are overrated at all. One thing is for sure, they�ll struggle in the SEC. They return six starters on both sides of the ball but, like Oklahoma State, the losses look enormous. Not only is Eli gone, so are IP Spence and Justin Wade, the Rebs two starting linebackers from last season. Also gone is their top receiving threat Chris Collins. As expected in the SEC, the schedule is brutal with trips to Baton Rouge, and Tuscaloosa, and home dates with Tennessee and Auburn. The non conference schedule is a joke so they will get some W�s, just not many in conference. Iowa State The Hawkeyes were just about crushed by graduation. They only return 2 starters on offense and they are along the offensive line. The defense looks to be in better shape but team leader Bob Sanders is gone to Indianapolis. The defense will have to hold the team together in the early portion of a brutal schedule that includes trips to Arizona State, Michigan and Penn State. Home dates during the same time period include Michigan State and Ohio State. The season could be over by early October for the Hawkeyes. They�ll be back but not this year in Iowa City. Complimentary Selections ---------------------------------- *USC/Virgina Tech OVER 48.5 College football starts out with an intiguing matchup on Saturday as USC travels to the East Coast to face Virginia Tech in the Black Coaches Classic. As seen in my preview, the Hokies have lost a ton in recent years to graduation and will be without the services of three of their top offensive playmakers in Vick, Imoh, and Hill. At the time of this write up, it does not appear likely that SC WR Mike Williams will play in the contest either. Eighteen is a lot of points to lay this early in the season but the total, currently at 48.5, looks a little low in this one. Regardless of how young SC's WR's are, the man who will delivering the football is an absolute stud. VT only retained one DB from one year ago, not to mention only three of their front seven. USC is 16-5 OVER (+10.5 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons and 5-1 OVER (+3.9 Units) when they force and commit the same number of turnovers over the last 3 seasons. The Hokies are 8-1 OVER (+6.! 9 Units) when they allow 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons. USC is 17-6 OVER (+10.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons. Expect SC to have its way by air and land early against a green Hokie club, but Tech will hang around and could make it interesting come the fourth quarter. Tech may very well turn it over early and often in this one, leading to a bunch of points for the Trojans. Just too early to lay those points. Over the total for one unit. Complimentary Selections ---------------------------------- *USC/Virgina Tech OVER 48.5 College football starts out with an intiguing matchup on Saturday as USC travels to the East Coast to face Virginia Tech in the Black Coaches Classic. As seen in my preview, the Hokies have lost a ton in recent years to graduation and will be without the services of three of their top offensive playmakers in Vick, Imoh, and Hill. At the time of this write up, it does not appear likely that SC WR Mike Williams will play in the contest either. Eighteen is a lot of points to lay this early in the season but the total, currently at 48.5, looks a little low in this one. Regardless of how young SC's WR's are, the man who will delivering the football is an absolute stud. VT only retained one DB from one year ago, not to mention only three of their front seven. USC is 16-5 OVER (+10.5 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons and 5-1 OVER (+3.9 Units) when they force and commit the same number of turnovers over the last 3 seasons. The Hokies are 8-1 OVER (+6.! 9 Units) when they allow 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons. USC is 17-6 OVER (+10.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons. Expect SC to have its way by air and land early against a green Hokie club, but Tech will hang around and could make it interesting come the fourth quarter. Tech may very well turn it over early and often in this one, leading to a bunch of points for the Trojans. Just too early to lay those points. Over the total for one unit. Wunderdog Premium Selections -------------------------------------- Early Bird Special - Subscribe NOW and Save $50 My season subscription gets you every pick from the preseason through the Bowls for about $20 per week. If you subscribe now, you'll save $50 off the regular price. Or, subscribe to my NFL/CFB combo package and save $125. You can also purchase weekly picks for just 39 dollars or a monthly package for $99 (40% off the weekly rate). Check out the subscription options here: https://srv02.velocera-eng.com/~freeunderdog.com/subscription/subscribers/paid_newsletter_form.php ========================= CFB Football Resources ========================= 2004/05 College Football Preview: http://www.freeunderdog.com/2004-college-football-preview.html Up-to-Date CFB ATS Records: http://www.freeunderdog.com/college-football-ats-standings.html CFB Game-of-the-Week Preview: http://www.freeunderdog.com/college-football-game-of-the-week-preview.html Live College Football Football Lines: http://www.freeunderdog.com/lines-and-odds-cfb.html ====================================================================== Star Ratings Explained ------------------------------ I list a * rating next to every game. This rating indicates my confidence (1 star = least, 4 stars = most). When I track my results, I weight each game based on these ratings. * = 1 Star (bet 100 units) * = 2 Stars (bet 200 units) * = 3 Stars (bet 300 units) * = 4 Stars (bet 400 units) For a more detailed explanation of units and how I use and calculate them, check this out: http://www.freeunderdog.com/units-explained.html. For you beginners, this page will also lead you to a good description of the money-line and how it is used. --------------------------------------------------------- To manage your subscriptions (add or remove yourself from individual newsletters), change your email preferences (email address, text vs. html format), or view your account and order history, please click the link at the very bottom of this newsletter. --------------------------------------------------------- Pass this Newsletter on to a Friend! If you know someone who would like to receive my newsletter and picks, please direct them here: http://www.freeunderdog.com. --------------------------------------------------------- The information in this newsletter is based on opinion is intended for informational purposes only. No guarantees or warranties are implied. Use this information at your own risk. --------------------------------------------------------- Good luck! The Dog Manage Your Subscriptions: http://www.freeunderdog.com/subscription/subscribers/subscription_management.php?action=login&id=bfbeeb2a25888f2f6d02676493579c65 [Non-text portions of this message have been removed] ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor --------------------~--> $9.95 domain names from Yahoo!. Register anything. http://us.click.yahoo.com/J8kdrA/y20IAA/yQLSAA/BCfwlB/TM --------------------------------------------------------------------~-> Yahoo! Groups Links <*> To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/kumpulan/ <*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] <*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
