The Taipan Group's 247profits e-Dispatch
Baltimore, New York, Chicago, Berlin, Bonn, London and Paris
August 31-September 1, 2004
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***Fits of Uncontrollable Laughter - and the Company That Could Conquer
Them!
***Correction from Greece� the case of the soapy swimming pool� and
more below.
***From its inception in November 2000 to July 2004, Red Zone VIP has
generated total gains of 3,684%!
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>From the Desk of J. Christoph Amberger
Dear Friend,
"Why are you pouring soap into the swimming pool," asked the best wife of
'em all this morning, as I was cleaning up a gusty night's debris from the
water.
I looked at what I thought was a bottle of algaecide in my hand. Darn it: it
was soap! Worse, I had been using soap to check algae since early August.
That explains the mild foam that would rise to the surface whenever a child
splashed a bit too much while playing "Marco Polo"�
I had a feeling this would not be my day�
***Low volume continues to keep the US markets in a listless state of mind.
Overall, it is interesting to see where all the money has gone over the past
couple of weeks.
Profits for S&P 500 companies may have increased by 20% or more in
Q2� the fourth time in as many quarters such growth has been achieved
and only the fifth time that happened in 50 years.
Still, the week ending August 18 saw a net inflow into money-market funds
of US$7.4 billion, according to AMG. Investors thus far have withdrawn
US$111.6 billion from this group of funds in 2004.
That same week, municipal debt funds experienced US$9.8 billion in cash
withdrawals (or 2.9% of assets). High-yield bond mutual funds added a
rather measly US$264.0 million in net inflows, which brings the 2004 year-
to-date total to negative US$7.8 billion (-5.7%).
Bond funds overall registered a US$749.3 million inflow during that period.
***While the overall market quivered yesterday, Brad Colburn's Volume
Spike Indicator lit up like a Christmas tree. It coughed up a rocket of a stock
and he sent his Volume Spike Alert members a buy recommendation around
noon:
"I've noticed that biotech stocks have been heating up recently. I saw a
nice batch of movers and shakers this morning, but only one really
grabbed me by the collar. It's called Avanir Pharmaceuticals
(AVN:AMEX).
"AVN trades for US$2.61 as I write. It's already hit a brand new 52-
week high of US$2.65 today. To tell you the truth, I wouldn't be
shocked if AVN hit another high. Why? AVN makes a drug that treats
PBA. PBA, or pseudobulbar affect, is a condition of uncontrollable
laughing or crying that afflicts patients with neurological disorders
such as MS, Alzheimer's or Lou Gehrig's disease.
"As of this moment, there are no FDA-approved drugs to treat PBA.
But in a recent Phase III trial, AVN's Neurodex significantly reduced
the frequency and severity of PBA attacks.
"That announcement came last week and AVN launched. Today it's
doing the same thing. It's up over 12%. AVN's average daily volume is
a hair over 487,000. As I write, it has spiked up over 1,530,000.
"I believe something is about to happen. It could be an FDA approval,
though I don't think that process would take just a week. Either way,
something is up. I'm recommending AVN as a buy under US$3.00.
Keep a 20% stop loss as a buffer."
Today was more of the same for AVN. The stock actually made another
brand new 52-week high of US$2.98. There were no news announcements
today, but volume remained in the picture. Towards the end of the day,
AVN's volume measured a little over 2.1 million.
Readers who got in at the recommended price of US$2.61 were sitting on a
14% gain at today's high.
And they say you can't make money in a sideways market!
***e-Dispatch reader Angelo S. from Greece wrote in reference to my
Olympic thoughts yesterday:
"I think you're taking this too personally. I'm Greek and I can tell you that it
wasn't the Americans the Greeks were booing. The majority of Greeks have
nothing against Americans and I think that if you know any Greeks, you
would know that. The booing was aimed at the whole race and everybody
included in the system. In other words, if no American runners were in the
race, they would still be booing. I also do not agree with all the screaming
that took place, but what I would say instead is that, 'It was not right for the
Greeks to be taking this out on anybody other than the Greek 200-meter
runner (Kenteris) who missed the drug test and not that Greeks have
something against Americans.'"
Awright. That settles it, then.
The Man Who Pinpointed the Tops in the NASDAQ, S&P and Russell
2000 Now Says�
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Earnings Announcements for Wednesday, September 1, 2004:
Corinthian Colleges Inc., Diageo PLC ADR, and Veritas DGC Inc. are
some of the companies releasing earnings.
Brought to you by your free daily "Profit Hog" e-newsletter. You can sign up
for your copy here:
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***Quote of the Day:
"More fallout over the prison scandal in Iraq. Over the weekend British
Prime Minister Tony Blair apologized for the mistreatment of prisoners
in Iraq. Apparently some of the prisoners were given British food."
--Conan O'Brien, August 30, 2004
***WORLD OF PROFITS***
*** "But will the bull continue? Our indicators anticipate profit taking� with
a potential downside of 1.5%."
The Hang Seng's low point today was 12,806.85, a tad off our prediction.
The index closed at 12,850.28, down 27.50 points (0.21%).
Our indicators now are once again working against each other in a way that
allows no clear prognosis. We hedge our bet for a breakeven day with a
recurring downside near minus 0.6%.
*** "Our indicators see tomorrow's upside at breakeven, with a downside
potential of 0.4%."
The Nikkei 225 outdid our bearish sentiment, closing at 11,081.79, down
102.74 points or 0.92%.
While no clear direction of the index can be discerned from our indicators
today, we think the Nikkei will continue to move in tight tracks between
11,000 and 11,100 for the next two days.
***DESK OF DENHOLM***
This just in from Taipan's resident Editor-at-Large, Martin Denholm:
***Japanese Jolt: Well, so much for that widely expected boost in Japanese
industrial production today. Once again, analysts were left with egg on their
faces as consensus forecasts for 1% growth didn't materialize.
For the second month running, Japanese manufacturers sat on their hands,
with output remaining flat in July following an ugly 1.3% drop in June. So it
was hardly a surprise to see investors choke on the news, sending the Nikkei
225 index tumbling down 102 points today. As a sign of the Japanese
economy's forward progress, however, July production was up 5.9%
compared with July 2003.
Not to be deterred, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry is sticking
to its projection for a "gradual rising trend" over the next couple of months. It
forecasts a 1.5% output increase in August, followed by a 0.6% advance in
September.
But IC Insights casts a shadow over at least one sector. It states that after a
solid 25% rise in growth this year, it expects the semiconductor industry to
slow sharply and, in fact, shrink 5.8% in 2005.
***Aussies to the Polls: It's official: Seeking a fourth term in office,
Australian Prime Minister John Howard announced voters will go to the urns
on October 9.
Economically, Howard has a solid platform on which to run. During his eight
years in power, the Aussie economy has averaged a stellar 3.7% growth
each year. By aligning the country closer to the US, he's also presided over
a free trade agreement leading to an increase in exports and annual budget
surpluses in six out of eight years. According to the Center for International
Economics, the agreement will swell the Aussie economy by A$6.1 billion
per year. The country has reduced debt by A$70 billion and the jobless rate
is at a 23-year low.
Australians also benefited from a four-year, A$14.7 billion income tax cut
package that started in July, as well as child credit payments of A$3,000 to
new mothers. That helped retail sales notch up the biggest monthly increase
in three years in July.
And no worries about low voter turnout. In Australia, it's compulsory to
vote.
***Winter Will Be� Wintry. You can't beat the local news for absolute
claptrap sometimes. Surfing the television stations last night, I came upon a
story telling viewers about the latest US weather projections for this winter
from the Farmer's Almanac. Apparently, we can look forward to cold,
snowy conditions in the northeast, snow in the north, warm and wet weather
in the south and dry and warm days in the west.
Then, with an absolutely straight face, the newscaster said the projections are
based on historical data and astronomy and are made two years in advance.
I sat there laughing, thinking to myself: "Yes� and the fact that IT'S
WINTER!!" Hardly groundbreaking stuff. Isn't the weather always like this
in winter? That's a minute of my life that I'll never get back�
***More nonsense: As I write, I'm listening to national British radio station
"BBC Five Live." I almost fell off my chair at this one. Apparently, the UK
Royal Mail says its performance is improving� despite the company missing
performance targets in all 15 UK regional mailing zones during the first
quarter of the financial year!
I think I need to lie down. Talk to you tomorrow.
***TAIPAN TIDINGS***
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J. Christoph Amberger
Executive Publisher
and The Taipan Group's
247profits e-Dispatch Team
P.S. If you followed the EVS team's advice in their "Year of Profits" report,
you'd be sitting on 460% gains in just three weeks!
This same team just made investors aware of the opportunity to make 15%
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Not Everyone is Getting Battered in Today's Market. Here's Why.
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