Nelayan, 

The last week of the preseason was good to us as I went 5-1 ATS and 0-1 on my one 
money-line selection. Overall 5-2 for +300 units. View my previous picks here: 
http://www.freeunderdog.com/2004-nfl.html

The first week of the regular season is always a difficult one to handicap but I 
definitely think there are a few games that are worth a serious look. Last year I 
started the regular season with a 3-1 ATS mark in week one so hopeully my week one 
luck will continue this year.

I like four games this week with the complimentary pick below.


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The Dog


Wunderdog Premium Selections
--------------------------------------
My season subscription gets you every pick from the preseason through the Super Bowl 
for about $20 per week. You can also purchase weekly picks for just 39 dollars or a 
monthly package for $99 (40% off the weekly rate).

Check out the subscription options here:
https://srv02.velocera-eng.com/~freeunderdog.com/subscription/subscribers/paid_newsletter_form.php



Complimentary Selections
----------------------------------
*Arizona +11 (-110) vs. St. Louis

Too much respect here for St. Louis and not enough for Arizona. St. Louis looked 
pretty bad in the preseason. Mike Martz' clock-management gaffe last week contributed 
to a 1-3 record. I believe that you play like you practice and it's hard to just flip 
a switch and go from poor play to a big win. Big road underdogs do very well ATS in 
week one of the NFL season when playing a conference opponent. Denny Green will have 
his team ready to play and will keep this one close enough for an ATS win. Let's not 
forget Dennis Green's resume: He was 97-62 with the Vikings, taking them to the NFC 
title game twice. The NFL, more than any other sport, is one of motivation. Arizona 
will be motivated to start their new era off with some respectability. One unit on the 
Cardinals.


**I have three premium games for paying subscribers. To order: 
https://srv02.velocera-eng.com/~freeunderdog.com/subscription/subscribers/paid_newsletter_form.php


========================= NFL Football Resources =========================
Six Reasons Why Underdogs are the Smart Bet in the NFL: 
http://www.freeunderdog.com/regularseasonphilosophy.html

2004 NFL FreeAgency Review: http://www.freeunderdog.com/2004-NFL-free-agency.html

2004 Draft Winners and Losers: 
http://www.freeunderdog.com/2004-NFL-draft-winners-losers.html

Up-to-Date NFL ATS Records: http://www.freeunderdog.com/nfl-football-ats-standings.htm

NFL Game-of-the-Week Preview: 
http://www.freeunderdog.com/nfl-football-game-of-the-week-preview.html

Live NFL Football Lines: http://www.freeunderdog.com/lines-and-odds-nfl.html
======================================================================


Star Ratings Explained
------------------------------
I list a * rating next to every game. This rating indicates my confidence (1 star = 
least, 4 stars = most). When I track my results, I weight each game based on these 
ratings.

1 Star = 100 unit bet, 4 stars = 400 unit bet

For a more detailed explanation of units and how I use and calculate them, check this 
out: http://www.freeunderdog.com/units-explained.html.


Money-Line / Straight-up Betting Explained
------------------------------------------
Money-line betting (also called straight-up betting) is an alternative way to bet a 
football game. Instead of using the point spread, you simply pick which team you think 
will win the game. If that team wins, you win. If that team loses, you lose. 
Money-line betting is an effective way to make a lot while risking a little by picking 
underdogs to win the game outright. For a detailed description of the money line, go 
here: http://www.freeunderdog.com/moneyline.html


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Good luck!
The Dog


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