The Taipan Group's 247profits e-Dispatch
Baltimore, New York, Chicago, Berlin, Bonn, London and Paris
September 10-13, 2004
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***The Hitler Diaries�
*** "I fought the Fed, and I won"� the slowdown that wasn't�
China and the Jersey Turnpike!
***Amazing Wealth-Building Secret Generates 3,684% Gains.
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>From the Desk of J. Christoph Amberger
Dear Friend,
This campaign is getting curiouser. First, there was a candidate who
got a National Guard dentist right (who couldn't remember scraping
tartar off his political opponent's teeth)� but then got the time and
place and acting president during his wartime epiphany just plain
wrong.
Then there is a former Lieutenant Governor of Texas who claims to
have "pulled strings" for that same opponent in his capacity as
lieutenant governor� a year before he took office.
(Apparently, 20th-century history is not the strong suit of some
people.)
But it's getting even curiouser than that: This week, I find myself
nostalgically transported to 1983, when the German magazine Stern
published what they thought were Hitler's diaries.
Of course, even as they celebrated the scoop, historians pointed out
that Hitler was quite famous for not taking notes himself. Hey, the
story made for good copy� and good copy sold issues. In good
time, it was revealed that the magazine had paid the then stellar sum
of DM9.9 million for the diaries to a West German memorabilia
dealer named Konrad Kujau, through the efforts of Stern reporter
Gerd Heidemann.
There was just one problem. Over-eager to rush their discovery to
press, the magazine had skimped on the fact-checking. The diaries
were amateurish fakes. The paper fibers and whitener were of
postwar manufacture, their contents cribbed from Max Domarus's
tome Hitler's Speeches and Proclamations and rife with that
author's historical errors.
Heidemann, the reporter who got the scoop, was accused skimming
almost DM2 million off the price. He and Kujau were later convicted
of fraud and spent over four years in the slammer.
Don't worry, there's no need to bake metal files into cherry pies yet:
Dan Rather will weather the current hoopla over the apparent
forgeries of the National Guard "documents"� after all, what
personal interest could the US mainstream media possibly have in
intentionally partaking in a hoax against a conservative political
candidate�?
As an anonymous writer at sniggle.net put it:
"That [the diaries] were accepted as true by eager press vultures and
skeptical scholars alike goes to show that the success of a hoax or a
fraud often has more to do with individual idiosyncrasies, the social
mood, and dumb luck than the careful cunning of the trickster."
Apparently, not much has changed in 21 years.
Luckily, we here at the Taipan Group don't even pretend to be
journalists�
*** "I fought the Fed, and I won," bragged the Red Zone's Chris
DeHaemer this morning:
"Back in May, the government of China put out warnings that it
would attempt to slow the economy. Naturally, this caused an
immediate and swift descent of the stock market that lasted until
about two weeks ago.
"If you've read the latest issue of Taipan you will know that this
unholy collapse caused by government intervention was akin to
Greenspan's 'irrational exuberance' speech and signaled a clear buy
opportunity. The years following Greenspan's warning were the best
the US markets have ever seen - ever.
"That is why I recommended to Taipan and Red Zone readers that
they should by value stocks in China, namely Chinese Internets.
These stocks are cheap by any valuation, have loads of cash and are
growing like ragweed on the shoulders of the Jersey Turnpike.
"The slowdown that wasn't: The great irony is that China hasn't
been able to talk down the economy any better than Greenspan
circa 1996. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's
industrial output growth accelerated acutely in August for the first
time in six months. In fact, industrial value-added output rose 15.9%
year-on-year in August. This was above July's 15.5% growth and
the 15% rise forecast by eight anonymous economists surveyed by
Bloomberg News.
"Now the question arises as to what the government will do next -
and, more importantly, how the markets will react. We are long and
strong. We all know that an attitude of 'the end is nigh' can last for
many years and actually fuels expansions.
"And while I'm at it: Our Indonesia play, P.T. Telecom
(TLK:NYSE), has been a consistent winner as a blood-in-the-
streets proxy for Indonesia (a country with historical bouts of gore
and asphalt). Yesterday, we bought calls in the aftermath of the
Australian Embassy bombing. Today, Red Zone VIP readers are up
35% as it ticks above US$17.50."
Find out more!
http://www.youreletters.com/t/57901/3785361/644898/70/
***The dollar briefly rose against the euro in response to narrowing
trade deficit numbers for July. Then, of course, it ceded all yields
when the terrible, terrible news emerged that inflation is really not a
big problem in the US right now, what with the August Producer
Price Index (PPI) falling 0.1% and core PPI neutralizing July's
miniscule gain to a resounding breakeven.
Who'd have thunk?
The wires reported today that "a declining dollar has yet to spur an
inflow of overseas funds to revive a lethargic U.S. mergers and
acquisitions market."
Hmm, could this be because economic conditions in Europe and
Japan are such that companies feel little urge to splurge on new US
subsidiaries despite their increased buying power?
After all, acquisitions of Eurozone companies by US and UK
business are alive and kicking, notwithstanding the lower dollar. US
acquisitions overseas amounted to an estimated US$37.9 billion in
the year to September 9.
Earnings Announcements for Monday, September 13, 2004:
AAR Corp., Campbell Soup Co., CHC Helicopter Corp., CKE
Restaurants Inc., Dynamex Inc., Falcon Products, Meade
Instruments Corp., Spectrum Control Inc., and Vermont Pure
Holdings Ltd are some of the companies releasing earnings.
***Quotes of the Day:
"I want to make clear to you, I want to make clear to you if I
have not made clear to you, that this story is true, and that
more important questions than how we got the story, which is
where those who don't like the story like to put the emphasis,
the more important question is what are the answers to the
questions raised in the story, which I just gave you earlier."
--Dan Ra ther, September 10 th, 2004
"Those who still believe that Saddam would have been
persuaded to mend his ways through an endless series of U.N.
resolutions would do well to ponder the Iranian and Syrian
experiments. We have a beautiful resolution; we have Kofi
Annan and Jacques Chirac in the driving seat; we are doing
multilateralism, and yet we are getting nowhere."
--Amir Taheri, September 10, 2004
"Three years after the attacks of September 11, the terror has
lost nothing of its virulence, but much of its horror. Helplessly,
we impute honorable motives to the perpetrators and interpret
their arbitrary acts as political desperation. But what if all they
care about is the joy of killing and the fun of dying?
"The bloody trail of the terrorists runs from New York to Bali,
from Istanbul to Madrid, from Beer Sheva to Moscow. And the
closer the attacks to us, the more absurd the reactions get. It's
as if there were earthquakes everywhere, and instead of
stockpiling food supplies, the people in the endangered regions
started reading nature poems to each other."
--Henryk M. Broder, September 10, 2004
***WORLD OF PROFITS***
*** "For tomorrow, we see no reversal of the trend. Expect further
losses near 0.8%."
Time to take a hammer to our indicators? Hong Kong's Hang Seng
index thumbed its nose at us, closing at 13,003.99, up 61.79 points
(0.48%). But actually we weren't that far off, as the index spent all
but the last trading hour in the red, dipping as low as 12,865.06.
There is now a nascent buoyancy in the Hang Seng that could result
in gains of another 1% next week.
*** "The indicators continue to hover at a level 0.5% below
breakeven."
Japan's Nikkei 225 closed at 11,083.23 after a thoroughly bearish
day that saw the index wrap up business on a "bullish" note� "only"
87.73 points (0.79%) below the open.
For next week, the overall sentiment of our indicators continues to
be muted� although it looks like there are limited bullish impulses
forming in the export sector.
***DESK OF DENHOLM***
This just in from Taipan's resident Editor-at-Large, Martin
Denholm:
***Japanese Jolt: What the Japanese wanted - and expected - was
an upward revision to second-quarter GDP. What they received
instead was a downward adjustment from 0.4% to 0.3%.
Unsurprisingly, investors reacted with disgust, sending the Nikkei
225 stock exchange down 87 points today. Officials blamed a 7%
cutback in public spending from the first quarter as the government
attempts to reduce the budget deficit. And although the 1.3%
annualized economic expansion was sharply lower than the expected
1.7%, the 6.4% recorded in the first quarter, and well below
economists' forecasts of 2.9%, officials tried to soothe frazzled
nerves by noting that it was nevertheless the fifth straight quarter of
growth.
The Japanese government remains unfazed by the news, maintaining
that the economy is "recovering at a solid pace." This rosy outlook is
reflected in its estimate of 3.5% GDP growth for the fiscal year
ending March 2005, which would be the fastest in eight years. Bank
of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui claims the economy "is steadily
heading towards a sustainable growth path." The theory is based
largely on rising employment and healthy corporate profits.
***China Refuses to Slow: So much for China's attempted
economic slowdown! The National Bureau of Statistics says
industrial production soared almost 16% to 455 billion yuan (US$55
billion) in August compared to a year ago.
Although it was the first rise since February, when production
growth hit 23%, the figure came in 1% higher than expectations. So
it might be the kick in the pants China's central bank needs to raise
interest rates for the first time since 1995 (alas, no truth to the rumor
that the bankers have been asleep all that time!). There are rumors
circulating that the bank is seriously weighing whether to act more
decisively to slow the country's extraordinary pace of growth.
An article in the New York Times suggests rising inflation and a
frenetic spate of lending by banks to industries that has resulted in a
red-hot investment boom will force the bank to tighten policy.
Consumer prices jumped 5.3% in the year through July, but the
current base interest rate is 5.31%.
The latest inflation report, due out on Monday, is expected to show
August inflation racing to around 5.4% - the highest since 1997.
Hardly surprising, since infrastructure and fixed-asset investment
ballooned 32% in August, with steel output jumping 23%.
Yi Gang, the central bank's monetary policy director, denied that the
bank is on the brink of raising rates. But after 9.1% Chinese GDP
growth last year and 9.7% through the first half of 2004, it's pretty
clear that the current measures aren't working to arrest the surge.
Full-year GDP growth is expected to roll in between 7% and 8%.
But don't expect a decision to come before all of August's economic
data are released and the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy
decision on September 21. If, as expected, the Fed hikes interest
rates again, that would put pressure on China do to the same, as the
yuan is pegged to the dollar.
I'm out of here for this week. Have a pleasant weekend and I'll talk
to you Monday.
***TAIPAN TIDINGS***
***A Dangerous Market for the Unprepared!
You must act immediately to prepare for the volatile market ahead.
Current economic, political and security factors are forming a
turbulent market climate that will bring masses of unprepared
investors to their knees.
But a select few inventors who see it coming - and act accordingly -
will prosper.
Don't be left out. Get all the details right here�
http://www.youreletters.com/t/57901/3785361/556051/70/
J. Christoph Amberger
Executive Publisher
and The Taipan Group's
247profits e-Dispatch Team
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