The Taipan Group's 247profits e-Dispatch
Baltimore, New York, Chicago, Berlin, Bonn, London and Paris
September 17-20, 2004
***********************************************
***Tight trading. Is this a consolidation prior to a major move up to a new
high? Or the rounding top in a wave-cycle within a falling market? Read on for
the WaveStrength forecast�
***Google News: Shares raced to $108 this week, and he "sell" alarm started
ringing in the ears of the Heidrick & Struggles people. They cashed out to the
tune of US$129 million in profits�
***Urgent Oil Wars Stock Report: Find Out What Stock to Own Now!
The greatest financial attack on US investors is underway�
Do nothing and you'll lose everything! Or prepare now and make 850% by next
year.
Access the late-breaking report right here:
http://www.youreletters.com/t/59666/3785361/648574/70/
***********************************************
>From the Desk of Adam T. Lass
Dear Friend,
Word floating around the ether today is that the market's trading range is so
tight because today is witching day, when all sorts of option and futures
contracts are either delivered or expire.
Yeah, right.
Let's look at some facts.
These are the S&P's closing prices for the month of September thus far:
1,105.91
1,118.31
1,113.63
1,121.30
1,116.27
1,118.38
1,123.92
1,125.82
1,128.33
1,120.37
1,123.50
The range between the highest and lowest close is 23.14 points. Think this is
tight? The range for the past four days is a mere 8 points.
Figures like these are just about the only real facts we have to work with.
Everything else is mere conjecture at best or electioneering spin at worst.
And we have to use these numbers to figure out something really important: Is
this a consolidation prior to a major move up to a new high? Or the rounding
top in a wave-cycle within a falling market?
Not that simple price and time are paltry sources of information. In fact,
properly parsed, they offer the only clean, bias-free clues to the true inclinations
of the herd as a whole.
But there are many different ways of examining and processing the numbers,
and substantial pools of adherents who will only accept a signal as valid if it is
generated by their particular favorite.
***So let's take a quick Cook's tour to see if they agree or disagree on the
herd's mindset:
This is my essay, so I get to pick the first signal, and my particular favorite at the
moment is MACD-H. Here we see the fast average meeting the slower average
at 0.75, even higher into overbought territory than the signal that marked the
beginning of this summer's crash (oh, sorry: -7.26% "soft patch").
Do you prefer studying a multiple moving average system? Try this on: The 10-
day average hasn't beaten the 50-day average for more than 30 trading days
since March. In fact, the average time it has spent in the superior position is 16
days. It has been in the superior position now for 12 days.
Are you an aficionado of John Bollinger's elegant use of a single 20-day
average with markers two standard deviations above and below? Price has
gapped away from the top line twice in 10 days.
Both Dow and Elliot theory lean heavily on Fibonacci retracements. The S&P
has failed at the crucial 38.2% marker 7 out of the past 10 trading days.
Dr. George C. Lane's stochastics? Stuck above the overbought line at 75 since
the first week of September.
Wilder's ADX? The averaging green line is above both other indicators and
slamming toward the third rail at 40.
***So far, I've written about little more than cold, dry numbers. And what
these numbers indicate is that this market is not, repeat, not coalescing support
for a run at the 52-week high.
Rather, it is at the top line of a falling trend, and preparing to turn down and lose
approximately 7% of its value for the fourth time since March.
This drop has been in the cards for at least the past 11 trading days. And yet it
has not arrived. A reasonably neutral observer might ask if this gives the lie to
the conclusions of so many indicative systems.
Ahh, but nothing truly happens in a dry, politics-free vacuum. There are a lot of
things weighing heavily on the shoulders of this market: sky-high oil, a massive
import/export gap, expanding national debt, a tremulous Fed, weak employment
and poor profit forecasts.
And on the other side of the scale is a small group of men desperate to retain
power. To achieve this, they must see to it that the market remains up over the
next few weeks. A collapse at this juncture would spell disaster both for them
and their sponsors.
***Is there enough money in their bank to keep the props in place? Hell, I
don't know. I figured it would give out months ago. But come Election Day the
props will no longer be needed, because they will either have served their
purpose or failed.
Historically speaking, late fall is a buyer's low, not a seller's high, with
September seeing the brunt of the post-summer selling action. I expect to see
this pattern again this year.
Cordially,
Adam Lass
Senior Editor, WaveStrength
***Adam Lass, the Man Who Pinpointed the Tops in the NASDAQ, S&P and
Russell 200, Now Says�
"Get 15.2 Time Richer by Election Day 2004!"
All in all, WaveStrength racked up an amazing 15 winners during this hot
streak, amassing a total of 1,517% in gains during the last big stock market slide
of 2002.
Using this system you could make gains no matter which way the market moves.
Just recently, WaveStrength members sold 3M August 90 Puts for 113% in
one day. Would you like to make gains like these?
Learn how low-risk options can make you five to ten times as much money�
http://www.youreletters.com/t/59666/3785361/426/70/
***Presidential Punting
Today's tradesports.com standings for the 2004 Presidential Election are:
PRESIDENT.GWBUSH2004 65.2/66.8
PRESIDENT.KERRY2004 35.5/35.0
Earnings Announcements for Monday, September 20, 2004:
Adobe Systems Inc., CarMax Inc., Carnival Corp., Cintas Corp., DPAC
Technologies Corp., KB Home, Lawson Software Inc., Lennar Corp., Nike
Inc., palmOne Inc., Red Hat Inc., Rowe Companies Inc., and Texas Industries
Inc. are some of the companies releasing earnings.
***Quote of the Day:
Instead of quotes, we thought you might like to see this collection of political
cartoons on what we've all now come to know as "Rathergate":
http://ratherbiased.com/rather-cartoons.html
***WORLD OF PROFITS***
***The Nikkei made it three straight - three straight losing days, that is. Japan's
benchmark index shed 56 points (0.5%) to close at 11,082.49 - the lowest
since September 3.
Not too surprising, since this is a long weekend. Japan's markets will be closed
both next Monday and Thursday for national holidays, so it's tough to predict
how investors will feel come Tuesday morning. In any event, volume is likely to
be light.
But we're looking for traders to return in a buying mood, despite Japan's
economy losing some steam recently and the ongoing takeover battle for the
country's fourth-largest bank, UFJ Holdings. Gains of around 20-40 points.
***Over in Hong Kong, the news was better, as the Hang Seng closed at
13,224.93 - its highest level since March 9. For the day, however, there wasn't
much to get excited about, with the index tacking on just 15 points (0.1%)
despite volume hitting HK$22.9 billion over Thursday's HK$15.8 billion.
Another flat day beckons on Monday. Look for the market to end in positive
territory - up no more than 20 points.
***DESK OF DENHOLM***
This just in from Taipan's resident Editor-at-Large, Martin Denholm:
***Sony Wins Buyout Battle, But Profit Struggle Continues: Not sure if I've
told you this before, but I firmly believe Tuesday is the most boring day of the
week.
But for Sony, this past Tuesday had to go down as one of its best days ever.
After protracted negotiations, it finally succeeded in gobbling up a vast amount
of additional products and lay a solid foundation for further boosting its market
share.
That's because after Time-Warner dropped out of the running on Monday,
Sony agreed to a deal to buy out MGM - one of America's proudest and most
prestigious media companies. Sony will pay US$12 per share for MGM (worth
US$2.85 billion) and assume its US$2 billion worth of debt, making the total
deal worth just under US$5 billion.
That means Sony will add MGM's 4,100 movies (including the lucrative James
Bond franchise) to its own 3,500, creating the world's largest film library in a
heartbeat. According to some estimates, that means Sony will now own about
40% of all the Hollywood movies ever produced. In addition, a separate deal
with Comcast, America's largest cable provider, will allow the latter to screen
all Sony/MGM pictures via its cable and video-on-demand systems.
While the deal is definitely beneficial, and one I think will prove to be a very
good strategic move, problems remain. Sony absorbing MGM's debt is
something sure to be reflected on the balance sheet. It remains to be seen how
Sony will adjust, given the current struggles blighting its own electronics division.
The deal apparently isn't going to be enough to stave off what the company says
will be a distinctly "un-merry" Christmas. Sony says profits will be hard to come
by, blaming the high costs associated with manufacturing flat-screen televisions
and a sales decline in DVD equipment.
The electronics division accounts for two thirds of the company's sales. If
downbeat executives are correct, it would mark the second straight year of
Christmas blues for Sony, which turned in a desperately disappointing 46%
slump in operating profits (49.5 billion yen/US$449 million) for the Christmas
period last year.
***Googling for Profits: One bunch of people who certainly aren't having a
problem turning a profit are the executives and consultants at Heidrick &
Struggles.
It's a month now since Google finally went public amid a flurry of pent-up
anticipation that at times bordered on the ridiculous, with the offering price
surging past US$100 before hitting the market at US$85 per share.
But the folks at Heidrick & Struggles weren't complaining, since they'd
received 1.2 million shares at a special price of 30 cents per share - a reward
for a recruiting job they did for Google back in 2001.
And talk about a nice late-summer gift! As Google shares raced to US$108 this
week, the "sell" alarm started ringing in the ears of the Heidrick & Struggles
people. They cashed out to the tune of US$129 million in profits.
If only we could all be so lucky! Oh well. I guess I'll have to settle for the Red
Sox laying a beating on the Yankees this weekend instead. Have a good one.
***TAIPAN TIDINGS***
***You Can Use the Same Secret Intelligence Gathering Tactics Used by the
CIA to Make As Much As 144% in Less Than Two Weeks...
How would you like be one of the privileged few who see 150 % gains in just
15 days...
107 % gains in 3 days... even as much as 246% gains in only 7 days? Now you
can.
Get the facts:
http://www.youreletters.com/t/59666/3785361/645969/70/
J. Christoph Amberger
Executive Publisher
and The Taipan Group's
247profits e-Dispatch Team
P.S. Introducing the WaveStrength Market Report� the most recent
innovation from the WaveStrength team.
Each day you'll receive daily market forecasting on the Dow, NASDAQ and
S&P, educational material on options terms and techniques, technical chart
analysis and options trading services.
Try it. It's FREE. And, as you know, the Taipan Group respects your privacy,
so you have nothing to lose:
http://www.youreletters.com/t/59666/3785361/427/0/
===========================================
Keep the e-Dispatch coming to your mailbox!
If you enjoy reading the e-Dispatch, help us out by
"white-listing" our service... before delivery is interrupted.
You can find the details here:
http://www.youreletters.com/t/59666/3785361/134/56/
A big thanks in advance from your faithful e-Dispatch team.
===========================================
Now made available for e-Dispatch Readers Only!
Visit the 247profits e-Dispatch Blog. We update it daily.
It just another way for you to access our insights and
addictive stock market commentary.
To access the blog, visit:
http://www.youreletters.com/t/59666/3785361/367/56/
SPECIAL OFFER: As another 247profits e-Dispatch Membership
benefit, you have the opportunity to receive a FREE two-week
subscription to Investor's Business Daily.
10 FREE issues of Investor's Business Daily, the daily newspaper
for self-directed investors. Every issue of IBD includes stock
tables with IBD's exclusive SmartSelect Ratings, coverage of
institutional buying trends and 42 charts of top-rated stocks
currently advancing.
Here's where you can sign up:
http://www.youreletters.com/t/59666/3785361/391/56/
**NOTE TO AOL AND COMPUSERVE USERS: Please cut and paste the
links into your browser to access our special reports and other
offers.**
***********************************************
Copyright � 2004 by Taipan Group LLC. All rights reserved. The
Taipan Group's 247profits e-Dispatch is sent daily to a select
group of investors who share the courage and foresight to stay
ahead of today's markets. The Taipan Group unites the
stock-picking talents of several analysts and editors. We
publish a variety of monthly print newsletters, weekly and daily
trading alerts, and information services. Each of the services
is based on individual trading/investment philosophies or
vehicles and specific investment approaches.
Please note: It's not our intention to send email to anyone who
doesn't want it. If you would like to remove yourself from this
mailing list, please see the instructions at the bottom of this message.
For more about us, and a summary of our editorial policy, please
read here:
http://www.youreletters.com/t/59666/3785361/392/56/
and here:
http://www.youreletters.com/t/59666/3785361/393/56/
Our Members Only service frequently referred to in the
e-Dispatch includes a subscription to TAIPAN, the monthly
communiqu� compiled by our Taipan Think Tank, as well as special
reports, rebates on conferences, and related information
services. For more information on how to enjoy full Membership
Privileges, please visit our home page:
http://www.youreletters.com/t/59666/3785361/394/56/
The Taipan Group's 247profits e-Dispatch is intended
specifically for mature investors with a strong sense of
individual responsibility who want to arbitrage different
viewpoints to optimize their personal investment strategy. We
reserve the right to remove readers we believe do not meet these
criteria from our distribution list without prior
notice.
You are welcome to distribute this message, at your discretion,
to others who you believe share the values of the Taipan Group.
NOTE TO OUR READERS: Taipan Group LLC or The Taipan Group's
247profits e-Dispatch does not act as an investment advisor or
advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment.
Investments recommended in this publication should be made only
after consulting with your investment advisor and only after
reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company
in question.
Taipan Group LLC expressly forbids its writers from having a
financial interest in any security that they recommend to their
readers. Furthermore, all other employees and agents of Taipan
Group LLC and its affiliate companies must wait 24 hours before
following an initial recommendation published on the Internet,
or 72 hours after a printed publication is mailed.
*******
This email was sent to
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
because you or someone using your email address subscribed to
this service.
*******
To unsubscribe, Click the following link or copy and paste it
into your browser:
http://www.youreletters.com/u?id=3785361N&u=http://www.247profits.com&l=dispatch
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor --------------------~-->
Make a clean sweep of pop-up ads. Yahoo! Companion Toolbar.
Now with Pop-Up Blocker. Get it for free!
http://us.click.yahoo.com/L5YrjA/eSIIAA/yQLSAA/BCfwlB/TM
--------------------------------------------------------------------~->
<a href=http://English-12948197573.SpamPoison.com>Fight Spam! Click Here!</a>
Yahoo! Groups Links
<*> To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/kumpulan/
<*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
<*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
