| Hello
NFL Handicapping Fans,
NFL Picks are
9-1 ATS in first two weeks.
Week Two was a 5-0 week ATS with winners on Chicago,
Carolina, San Francisco, Miami and Buffalo. ATS picks were +500
units. The money-line picks split, going 2-2 for +340 units thanks
to two huge underdog winners in Chicago and Carolina. Overall
we were +840 units on the week. My Monday Night Football recommendation
on the Eagles also won. I didn't make this an official pick,
though so I won't be counting it. View my previous NFL picks here.
This
week's newsletter includes an overview of the money-line.
Betting
the Money-Line in the NFL: Risking A Little to Make a Lot
While seasoned gamblers understand the money-line, many sports bettors are
not familiar with this betting option and the huge potential benefits associated
with utilizing it. This article will describe the money-line and how it can
be used to risk a little and win a lot in the NFL.
What
is the Money-Line?
Playing the money-line is equivalent to picking a team (favorite or underdog)
to win the game straight-up. For this bet, there is no spread. If the team
you pick wins the game outright, you win your bet. If the team loses, you lose
the bet. Tthere is no juice or vig (although the odds you get have casino profit
built in).
I
know what you’re thinking – just pick the favorite
each time and laugh all the way to the bank! Well, it’s
not that simple. If this bet paid even money, you would simply
pick the favorites each week, win more than 50% of your bets,
and retire young. That’s why, of course, this bet doesn’t
pay even money. If you select a favorite to win straight
up, you need to put down more than you can win. If you select
an underdog, you need to put down less money than you can
win. Let’s look at a couple of examples:
Example
1: Miami Dolphins -3 over Minnesota Vikings
For this game, the sports book has set the Money Line at -180 for Miami and
+150 for Minnesota. That means that if you want to bet Miami to win straight
up, you would need to lay $180 to win $100. If you want to take Minnesota to
win straight-up, you would lay $100 to win $150.
Example
2: Buffalo Bills +6.5 over Green Bay Packers
For the second game, the bookmaker has set the money at -300 for the Pack and
+230 for Buffalo. The larger numbers reflect the larger spread. If you can
pick a 6.5 point underdog to win straight-up, you would win $230 for a mere
$100 bet.
Risking
a Little to Win a Lot
What you may have noticed is that if you can successfully pick underdogs to
win straight-up, you can win a lot of money without risking nearly as much.
I like this fact about the money line. And, if you combine money-line picks
into parlays, you can really hit the jackpot with a small investment. For example,
if we parlayed Minnesota and Buffalo with the money-line in the above example,
a $100 bet would yield $725 in winnings. Throw in a third team (say, the Giants
at +4.5) and a $100 bet would win $2,169.
Obviously,
it is harder to pick underdogs to win straight-up, right?
Yes, but maybe not as hard as you initially think. The spread
only comes into play about 84% of the time in the NFL. In
other words, the team that wins the game doesn’t cover
the spread only 16% of the time.
Also, since you win more than you bet when picking dogs with the money line,
you have to win a much smaller percentage of your games to break even. The
particular percentage depends on the spread in the games you pick (the higher
the spreads, the fewer games you need to win since the money line pays more
for higher spread dogs).
For
example, let’s imagine over the course of the season
you were to pick 100 three-point underdogs to win straight-up
at a money line of +150. In this scenario, you would only
need to win 40% of those games to break even. On the 60 losses,
you would of course lose 60 units (there is no juice on money
line bets). On the 40 winners you would win 60 units (1.5
x 40).
If
you were to pick one hundred 6.5-point underdogs to win straight-up
at a money line of +230, you would only need to win about
31% of your bets to break-even.
So,
there is an opportunity to do well with the money-line if
you can select enough dogs that win straight-up.
What it All Means
This season, consider using the money-line to your advantage. If you like an
underdog and think they have a shot at winning the game outright, you might
be better off putting that $100 on money-line for your team. If they win straight-up,
you’ll rake in a lot more profits than if you had just bet them to cover
the spread. If you aren’t sure, split your bets and put $50 on the dog
to win straight-up and $50 to cover the spread. If the team covers the spread
but doesn’t win the game, you break-even. If they win the game, you win
both bets!
I
have four total picks this week. The comp
pick is below.
Good
luck!
![The Wunderdog]()
| 