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The Taipan Group�s 247profits e-Dispatch Baltimore, New York, Chicago, Berlin, Bonn, London and Paris October 12-13, 2004
***Bullish views on the American economy� making sense of last week�s unemployment numbers� more. ***News about the Bush Administration�s tax cuts� another streak of genius!
(That�s good enough to turn 5,000 dollars into 3.5 million in 3 years.) Access your WaveStrength Bonus Report right NOW. *********************************************** Dear Friend, �Foul demons that clog this vacuum cleaner, I command thee: OUT!� I was reminded of this famous Gary Larson cartoon of appliance faith healers when VP-candidate Senator John Edwards today supplemented his previous ambulance-chaser stints as a medium to the spirit world (channeling the feelings of unborn children) with an excursion into good, old-fashioned snake handling: �When John Kerry is president,� he was quoted, �people like Christopher Reeve are going to walk. Get up out of that wheelchair and walk again.� (He kept mum on their future ability to walk on water� but I�m sure a crash course in European neo-pacifism will take care of that as well.) Only in America.
Because according to him, they needed to have been a lot bigger. He pointed at President Reagan�s 1986 tax cut, which lowered overall tax rates while collecting the same revenue. We�ve been saying that all along: Apparently, there is a streak of genius running through the Taipan research department.
With all the �glass-half-empty� griping going on, I�m half expecting to be accosted by unemployed corporate lawyers trying to sell me #2 pencils in the parking lot. Larry Kudlow provides a much-needed different - and in my view justified - perspective: �U.S. job creation continued to move ahead at a steady pace with the announcement Friday that 96,000 non-farm payrolls were added to the economy. [�] Over the past thirteen months 1.9 million new jobs have been created. The unemployment rate stands at a historically low 5.4 percent. One hundred forty million Americans are now working, a new U.S. record. [�] �Average hourly earnings have increased by 3.1 percent annually through September. This number has been steadily rising over the past year from a meager 0.8 percent increase registered in October 2003. Personal income is growing at 5 percent over the past year. This measure includes wages, salaries, rents, interest, dividends, and Social Security payments. Adjusting for inflation, real income has increased 2.6 percent over the past year, a hefty gain. Total compensation, including non-cash and non-taxable benefits like healthcare, has grown 3.9 percent (adjusted for inflation) over the past year.� Overall, this is a scenario that warrants downright bullish views on the American economy in the upcoming year.
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Today�s tradesports.com standings for the 2004 Presidential Election are: PRESIDENT.GWBUSH2004: 57.9/59.0 (yesterday�s standing: 58.4/59.0)
Accenture Ltd, Apple Computer Inc., CEC Entertainment Inc., Closure Medical Group, Datalink Corp., Graco Inc., Harley-Davidson, Host Marriott, Lam Research, National Processing Inc., Net2Phone Inc., Network Equipment Technologies, New York Times Co., Novellus Systems, Popular Inc., and SanDisk Corp. are some of the companies releasing earnings. Brought to you by your free daily �WaveStrength Market Report� e-newsletter. You can sign up for your copy here.
�Kerry
is our Neville Chamberlain, assuring us that we are not really at war, that
the seeming conflict is all a misunderstanding that can be cleared up with
a little clever diplomacy, and that he will bring us �peace in our time.��
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*** �Our indicators are sticking to their guns, calling for another upswing tomorrow. We�ll call it at around 0.7%.� Our bullish call did not materialize today, as the Hang Seng spent all of today below the red line set by yesterday�s close. It finished the day at 13,251, down 53.54 points or 0.40%. For tomorrow, our indicators present a picture of confusion: With a low range at minus 1.2%, there is the potential for a small upside near 0.5%.
The Nikkei did in deed pull back, to 11,201.81, representing a loss of 147.54 points or 1.30%. For tomorrow, we are unable to locate major bullish impulses aside from an unexpected (and somewhat unlikely) cresting of the oil price. Expect further losses near 0.3%.
This just in from Taipan�s resident Editor-at-Large, Martin Denholm: My colleague Ian Cooper turned to me this morning and said: �Man, this oil situation is way out of hand. You know I just paid US$2.10 a gallon for gas this morning?� The guy is right. In fact, �out of hand� is an understatement. This morning it was a case of �another day, another dollar.� Another dollar up that is, with prices now having breached the US$54 per barrel mark. Help! I�m running out of adjectives here.
That came after net revenue fell from US$4.93 billion to US$4.84 billion - a 3% drop - and earnings from the investment banking business slumped 22%. But far be it from me to be the bearer of just bad news. Marriott International - the largest hotel company in the US - reported an impressive 45% surge in third-quarter profits thanks to a pickup in both leisure and business travel. Net income jumped from 92 million (37 cents per share) in Q3 2003 to 133 million (56 cents per share) last quarter.
A flourishing economy. Rampant oil prices. If you had to bet, you�d probably say inflation would be rising at a fair pace too. But not in the UK. While not decreasing, inflation is rising at an oddly slow pace - the slowest since March, in fact. Consumer prices rose just 1.1% in September over September 2003 and a tiny 0.1% month-over-month. Projections called for a 1.4% and 0.4% rise, respectively. This adds to evidence that the Bank of England�s recent monetary tightening is beginning to take effect - which might persuade the bankers to leave interest rates alone until next year. So is it time for Governor Mervyn King to get out the BoE letterhead and write to Chancellor Gordon Brown? He�ll have to if the inflation rate dips below 1%. Competitive pressures within the retail sector led clothing prices alone to sink 5.7% during September - the biggest monthly drop since December 2002. And despite rising fuel costs, air fares actually declined by 7% over September 2003. So imagine my surprise when I read this headline in the Independent newspaper: �UK economy placed on inflation alert.� The article goes on to say that inflationary pressure is set to build because factory prices jumped to an eight-year high in September, while wage claims are also expected to rise. Factory prices rose 0.3%, taking the annual inflation rate to 3.1%. Gasoline prices jumped 10.7%, while raw materials costs climbed an annualized 7.3% - the biggest hike since November 2000. It�s a different story over in continental Europe, however. Inflation remained above the European Central Bank�s 2% ceiling for the fourth straight month in August as prices rose at an annualized 2.3% rate. Cheerio for today.
***Urgent Oil Wars Stock Report: Find Out What Stock to Own Now! The greatest financial attack on US investors is underway� Do nothing and you�ll lose everything! Or prepare now and make 850% by next year. To access this free report, visit this link. J. Christoph Amberger
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Title: Bullish on the American economy...
