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ARTICLES
The Politics of Investing
Economics: China and Commodities
Markets: Has the stock market peaked?
Economics: China: Hype or Happening
Economics: The Demographics of Change
Markets : Are We Running Out of Oil?
Economics : Is There a Housing Bubble?
Markets : Will Consumers Sink the Market?
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Breakdown or Breakout?
In the week following the U.S. election, stock markets
turned in one of their better performances surging some 7%. So, are we in
for better markets in the near-term? According to some market
prognosticators, we are. On November 5'th Goldman Sachs declared in a note
to clients: �Time for a move. The S&P 500 has traded in a 100-point range in
2004. We believe the S&P may now break out as uncertainty surrounding the
election and third quarter earnings has ended.� The Wall Street Journal
Online recently quoted Morgan Stanley's Internet analyst Mary Meeker who
reportedly said that the �Internet Boom is Under Way�. The question for
investors is: are they right?
To be sure, there is much to be optimistic about. In the last
few weeks we have been buffeted by some surprisingly good numbers including
a surge in the employment report (337,000 jobs created in October), lower
energy prices and the easing of geopolitical/terrorism fears. With the
Republicans sweeping not only the Presidency but also the two houses, the
prospect of lower taxes and the privatization of social security are
appearing real. As well, the balance sheets of corporate America continue to
improve as companies have used the low interest rate environment to pay down
debt. The reason markets have rallied is because investors love to cheer on
good news � at least until it stops. And with corporate profits at a 40 year
high and after tax profits of 7.6% of GDP, it doesn't get much better. As
market commentator Jim Cramer recently said, �The only way to catch up is to
join the crowd�They are buying Google because, what the heck, when the
market's up, buy Google�. But the stock market is driven not just by
fundamentals but also by expectations. So are expectations too high?
Read the Complete Article
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Report on Money is a division of The McConnell Group
an investment research and mangement consulting firm which publishes
research reports and commentary from time to time on securities and trends
in the marketplace. The opinions and information contained herein are based
upon sources which we believe to be reliable, but The McConnell Group makes
no representation as to their timeliness, accuracy or completeness. Mr.
Stephenson writes a regular commentary on the markets and individual
securities and the opinions expressed in this commentary are his own. This
report is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any
security. Nothing in this article constitutes individual investment, legal
or tax advice. Investments involve risk and an investor may incur profits
and losses. We, our affiliates, and any officer, director or stockholder or
any member of their families may have a position in and may from time to
time purchase or sell any securities discussed in our articles. At the time
of writing this article, Mr. Stephenson did not maintain an investment
position in any of the securities mentioned in this article.
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