"Nigel Stanley"
<[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>On 31/10/06, Adrian Stott <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>> In many wealthier countries (UK, Germany, Japan, etc.), fertility is
>> now well below replacement level. This is a VERY good thing.
>
>Not necessarily for the infertile generation's pensions!
I believe it has become very clear that pay-as-you-go pension schemes
are a bad idea (and corporate ones, come to that). With definite
similarities to what is happening to the waterways, the only way a
pensioner can be secure in his pension is if it is fully funded, and
within his own control (i.e. a personal and portable pension plan, not
least to satisfy lovers of alliteration).
Fixing this for the millions who have not built up pension capital, in
the expectation that the next generation will support them, is
definitely a problem. However, probably the *worst* way of doing it
is to encourage more population growth, for the reasons already
discussed on this ng.
The real situation is that the previous generation (who were working
when the PAYG approach was invented) got a pension they didn't have to
pay for (as they had not paid for the generation before that). In
effect, this means that current pensioners are faced with paying twice
if PAYG is abandoned. That's obviously not on.
I feel some nasty taxation coming on.
>This is all getting a bit too Malthusian for me.
I have a feeling that Rev. Malthus may not have been wholly wrong, but
merely premature (although the crunch may not come from lack of food,
as he suspected, but from environmental destruction).
However, the fertility declines now occurring in the rich countries
are voluntary, not forced, so I think you can't blame them on the
Malthus effect.
Adrian
Adrian Stott
07956-299966
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