WELCOME TO IWPR'S CAUCASUS REPORTING SERVICE, No. 635, March 29, 2012 SOUTH OSSETIA HEADS INTO CRUCIAL VOTE Rerun of presidential election stems from debacle in November. By Gana Yanovskaya
YOUTH PROTEST IN AZERBAIJANI CAPITAL Scuffles as police move in after rock singer insults president. By Shahla Sultanova EVICTION HIGHLIGHTS AZERI REFUGEES' PLIGHT Thousands of displaced people in western city live in poor conditions with uncertain prospects. By Ulvi Telmansoy COMMENT DESPITE ODDS, CONFIDENT MOOD IN KARABAKH Armenian residents still as determined as ever to win international acceptance. By Richard Giragosian **** NEW ************************************************************************************ LATEST PROJECT REVIEWS: http://iwpr.net/make-an-impact/project-reviews VACANCIES: http://iwpr.net/what-we-do/vacancies **** IWPR RESOURCES ****************************************************************** CAUCASUS PROGRAMME HOME: http://iwpr.net/programme/caucasus BECOME A FAN OF IWPR ON FACEBOOK: http://facebook.com/InstituteforWarandPeaceReporting FOLLOW US ON TWITTER: http://twitter.com/iwpr **** http://iwpr.net/ ********************************************************** DONATE TO IWPR: http://iwpr.net/donate **** http://iwpr.net/ ********************************************************** SOUTH OSSETIA HEADS INTO CRUCIAL VOTE Rerun of presidential election stems from debacle in November. By Gana Yanovskaya A presidential election in South Ossetia this weekend is likely to be inconclusive, requiring a second round of voting before the Caucasian republic has a new head of state. The final contest is likely to pit the South Ossetian ambassador to Moscow against a former KGB general. This election is a rerun, overshadowed by a stand-off created by the original poll in November. Opposition candidate Alla Jioyeva emerged as the clear winner then, but the authorities annulled the result when it became clear their favoured candidate had lost. After Jioyeva’s supporters took to the streets, a deal was reached where veteran president Eduard Kokoity agreed to stand down but the opposition agreed to hold the election again. Although Kokoity did resign, the deal broke down when Jioyeva said the authorities had broken their side of the bargain. (See More Election Turmoil in South Ossetia.) Neither Jioyeva nor her rival in November, Anatoly Bibilov, is standing this time. Of the four candidates, three are seen as close to Kokoity – human rights ombudsman David Sanakoev; Dmitry Medoev, the envoy to Moscow, and Communist Party leader Stanislav Kochiev. Only Leonid Tibilov, a former general in the KGB, is seen as independent of the authorities. Kosta Dzugaev, a political analyst working for the government, sees Tibilov and Medoyev as the front-runners, who will probably end up facing each other in a second round. “I think that’s the consensus view,” he said. “It’s hard to predict who will win, but by all appearances, the electorate is divided between these two individuals.”. Although Jioyeva has not lent her backing to any of the candidates, many of her supporters and most other opposition figures are behind Tibilov. Among them is Sergei Zasseev, a Jioyeva ally who was originally nominated to stand in this election himself. “The situation has been on the verge of catastrophe at many points during the last month. The nation is disunited. The current government hasn’t let many people through [as presidential candidates],” Zasseyev said. “Today we need someone who has many years on his shoulders, a brave individual, and I see Leonid Tibilov as such a person.” Many voters are impressed Tibilov’s past record, in particular his lack of a close association with the Kokoity administration. “Unlike the other pretenders for the post, Tibilov hasn’t been in government for many years,” Madina Mamieva, a voter in the South Ossetian capital Tskhinval, said. “He’s been under pressure from ex-president Kokoity for the last four years, and they even tried to prosecute him. We know for sure that this candidate isn’t tied in to the current regime.” Tibilov has made much of Kokoity’s animosity towards him, saying, “As soon as he came to power, I fell out of favour.” Although seen as close to government, Medoyev, too, has sought to distance himself from Kokoity, whose image was harmed by the post-election protests in November and by his allies’ failure to abide by the deal they made with Jioyeva. As he told voters, “I promise you that if I’m elected president, one of my first decisions would be to seek the dissolution of parliament, which is now an institution that stands in opposition to the people, and is controlled by [former chief prosecutor Taimuraz] Khugaev and Kokoity,” he said. This approach has won Medoyev some support from opposition-minded groups like the Fidibasta and Social Democratic parties and the Union of Ex-Combatants. Yury Vazagov, a political columnist with the newspaper South Ossetia, said all four candidates would be trying to position themselves to capture at least some of the opposition vote. “Pre-election alliances are a temporary thing…. We are talking about a protest vote here,” he said. “Very disparate forces have come together in pursuit of a common goal. But of course each force is pursuing its own interests.” Gana Yanovskaia is an IWPR-trained journalist in South Ossetia. YOUTH PROTEST IN AZERBAIJANI CAPITAL Scuffles as police move in after rock singer insults president. By Shahla Sultanova More than a thousand young Azerbaijanis braved driving snow to gather in Baku’s Sabavil district on March 17 for a demonstration against corruption and the jailing of journalists and activists. It was the first rally to be granted official approval in the capital since 2005, and was organised by the Youth Rights Defence Committee, an umbrella group bringing together the youth wings of the opposition Popular Front, Musavat, Democrat and Civil Solidarity parties; the Azad, Nida, Positive Change and Dalga youth movements; and the Human Rights Club. Government officials were quick to point out that the protest was proof that freedom of speech existed in Azerbaijan. Ali Hasanov, chief of the public policy department in the president’s office, expressed regret at trouble that marred the end of the demonstration. He was referring to a performance by the rock group Bulistan after the speeches finished. Police intervened when singer Jamal Ali used profanities and insulted President Ilham Aliyev. As well as Ali, they detained guitar player Natig Kamilov and Etibar Salmanli of the Nida group when they tried to protect the singer. The three were taken away in a police van and Ali was given ten days in detention, while Salmanli and Kamilov got six and five days, respectively. Shahla Sultanova is a freelance journalist in Azerbaijan. EVICTION HIGHLIGHTS AZERI REFUGEES' PLIGHT Thousands of displaced people in western city live in poor conditions with uncertain prospects. By Ulvi Telmansoy Nearly two decades after they were displaced by the war over Nagorny Karabakh, Azerbaijani refugees living in the country’s second city Ganja face housing difficulties and an uncertain future. The conflict ended in 1994 with Armenian forces in control of Karabakh and surrounding areas but no formal peace deal. The Azerbaijanis who lived there fled, and with no agreement on Karabakh’s future in sight, they have had to adjust to years in a kind of exile in their own country. Refugee officials say Ganja is home to 16,000 people displaced by the war, 11,000 of them from Kelbajar, one of several areas outside Karabakh that the Armenians captured and simply held on to. Many are still living in communal hostels, while the lucky ones have had housing built for them by the authorities. “The main problem is overcrowding in the hostels. There are four or five people to a room, sometimes even seven or eight,” Nushab Mammadova, head of the Tomris human rights organisation in Ganja, said. “This isn’t an isolated problem facing individual families – it affects the majority of withoutrefugees living in Ganja.” Facing housing shortages, some refugees squatted in unoccupied homes, while others put up buildings of their own, illegally. In a judgement on one such illegal “self-build” case last week, the city court in Ganja ruled that a building that had been home to refugee families since they arrived in 1993 should be torn down. It all happened so quickly that the families did not get a chance to remove their belongings. The case was brought by local resident Siyaset Mammadov, who owns the land. During the conflict, he agreed to let the refugee families put up a house for themselves, but now he wants the land back. “At that time, I gave verbal agreement for these refugees to build temporary accommodation. But then they refused to leave, so I have enforced my rights through the court,” he said. Durdana Guliyeva, 34, had lived in the house since fleeing from Kelbajar with her family in 1993. “Last year some official demanded that we vacate our house. But we didn’t have anywhere to go,” Guliyeva said. Now she and her family have moved into a hostel, where they are sharing a single room with no facilities, and they see no prospect of moving somewhere better. Court clerk Eldaniz Hajiyev insists he sent the house occupants repeated notices of eviction, which they ignored. Local lawyer Zabil Gahramanov said the families should be entitled to compensation for the destruction of property inside the building when it was demolished. They could also seek damages through the courts, as the authorities should have let them remove their things. Gahramanov also pointed to a presidential decree from 2004 which states that refugees can only be required to move out of housing if they have been offered alternative accommodation. Suleyman Abbasov, the local representative of the State Committee for Refugees, said the government was building houses for all displaced persons, but that it was taking time. On the specific case of the evicted families, Abbasov said, “If [they] haven’t been given a room in a hostel, then they are going to have to wait for a new refugee settlement to be built. Another settlement is planned for next year.” Mammadova of the Tomris human rights group said the waiting list for accommodation was very long, and coupled with overcrowding in the hostels, this led refugees to build houses without permission, or squat in empty flats. “The authorities have recently become more active in fighting these trends,” she said. “Of course they have to curb illegal house-building, but they also need to provide decent living conditions for refugees. The government is responsible for ensuring this, if it cannot secure their return to their [original] homes.” Ulvi Telmansoy is a journalist with the ANS broadcasting company. COMMENT DESPITE ODDS, CONFIDENT MOOD IN KARABAKH Armenian residents still as determined as ever to win international acceptance. By Richard Giragosian After 20 difficult years living in Azerbaijan’s shadow, Armenians in Nagorny Karabakh appear increasingly confident about the future. Although the conflict remains unresolved and Karabakh has not won international recognition as a separate state, people there remain steadfast about holding onto their hard-won independence. Progress on building a new state and establishing a political process continues regardless of the problems. In fact, Nagorny Karabakh’s electoral record suggests its democratic credentials are better than Armenia’s, let alone Azerbaijan’s. Such developments tend to be ignored by outsiders, for whom Karabakh is either a focus for geopolitical competition or the subject of mediation by major powers like France, Russia and the United States. On the ground, though, perspectives and priorities are quite different. For most people in Karabakh, the most pressing concern is the state of the economy, rather than the dormant peace process. While proud of their republic, they struggle to make ends meet, and many rely on money sent back from relatives working abroad. And as the situation has deteriorated in recent years, some residents will admit – albeit reluctantly and in private – that they too are thinking of leaving in search of work. Young people, too, acknowledge that they worry about finding work once they graduate. Take Anna, a 23-year old holding down a job in one of the better hotels in the local capital Stepanakert. Her sense of satisfaction with having a steady and reasonably well-paid job is tempered by frustration and regret. “I like my work and I’m happy – but I am also ashamed,” she told me. “I am sad because I do have a job while my brothers and my father can’t find work. And my friends are jealous. I feel guilty sometimes, and sad too.” The general lack of optimism about the economy and job prospects also applies to politics. Asked about the upcoming parliamentary election in neighbouring Armenia in May, very few people expressed much interest. “Sure, the Armenian election is obviously important, but not so much for us,” Tevan, 21, a university student studying politics and international relations, said. “In any case, everyone knows the outcome – the Republican Party will win. But that doesn’t really affect us here in Karabakh. The real difference is that here in Karabakh, every election that we’ve ever had has been free and fair, whereas in Armenia, I can’t remember any free or fair election.” This strong sense of pride in Karabakh’s democratic credentials – which many feel is not sufficiently appreciated elsewhere – is widespread. As Anahit, a middle-aged housewife put it, “We are never going to leave our lands, and you must understand that we’ll never ever accept anyone trying to hand us back to the Azerbaijanis. After all, we are free, strong, and living in a democracy. Why we would we ever want to revert to Azerbaijan?” As justification for this position, other residents noted that February 19 marked the eighth anniversary of the murder of an Armenian army officer by an Azerbaijani soldier while both were attending a NATO course in Hungary. Memories of the incident reinforce fears of Azerbaijan, especially as some officials there hailed the murderer as a true patriot. The escalating tensions along the front line that separates Armenian-held territory from Azerbaijan, with sniper fire that is now almost routine, only seem to make Karabakh’s residents more determined to claim independence. The threat of renewed conflict is never far from people’s minds. This underlying mood continues to permeate Karabakh. People living in border areas believe an Azerbaijani attack is increasingly likely, although they believe the Karabakh military would be able to fend off any assault. In urban centres, the possibility of war in nearby Iran is also a preoccupation. According to Hamlet, a father of four, “It isn’t like we are siding with the Iranians. But we don’t want war to return to this region. We can remember what war is really like, and no one deserves that again. We trade with the Iranians, and Iran has never betrayed us by supporting Azerbaijan as the Turks did. But I am worried.” War with Iran would, Hamlet said, harm Karabakh’s already frail economy. “If there is war, the [Iranian] trucks will stop coming and, God forbid, the Azeris may think they can attack us if there is a war going on nearby,” he said. The danger of renewed hostilities with Azerbaijan is real enough. The divide between how Armenians and Azerbaijanis see Karabakh’s future remains insurmountable. And since the Karabakh Armenians are blocked from participating in the peace talks, which involve Yerevan and Baku only, the chances of progress seem remote. For the people of Karabakh, the next two decades are likely to be full of challenges just as daunting as those they have weathered over the past twenty years. Richard Giragosian is director of the Regional Studies Centre, an independent think tank in Yerevan, Armenia. **** http://iwpr.net/ ********************************************************** CAUCASUS REPORTING SERVICE provides the international community with a unique insiders' perspective on events in the North and South Caucasus. Using our network of local journalists, the service publishes news and analysis from across the region every week. The opinions expressed in IWPR's Caucasus Reporting Service are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the publication or of IWPR. The service forms part of IWPR's Caucasus programme, which supports local media development while encouraging better local and international understanding of the region. IWPR's Caucasus programme is supported by the British government, the Norwegian government, the European Commission and the Finnish government. The service is currently available online in English and in Russian. CAUCASUS REPORTING SERVICE: Editor-in-Chief: Anthony Borden; Senior Editor and Acting Managing Editor: John MacLeod; Caucasus Editor: Oliver Bullough; Associate Editors: Shahin Rzayev in Baku, Seda Muradian in Yerevan and Giorgi Kupatadze in Tbilisi. 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