Maybe this is relevant:  another effect that strengthens the anti-predation 
function of a herd is the "confusion effect" of many similar animals milling 
quickly about so the predator cannot fasten on any one.  This is easy to 
demonstrate with a computer simulation and one reason that strong sex 
dimorphism might not be selected in such species.  So a skitteriness such that 
the flock flies up, moving confusingly together, may put off many a hawk that 
is trying to fasten on a single prey.  (I have had to catch up my budgie flocks 
many times, and it is useless to go for a flipping flying group---we predators 
must be able to fasten on one to be effective.)

This doesn't explain their leaving feeders but might explain frequent 
up-flights and confusing movements at any sign of a possible predator--if in 
doubt, go up; if someone else goes, go up!  Starlings do this--see the 
Stevenson road compost!

Anne

On Jan 9, 2013, at 1:05 PM, Geo Kloppel wrote:

> Hi Wesley, you wrote:
> 
>> I'd actually expect the opposite: something that's called a "selfish herd" 
>> effect, where the larger the group, the less likely that you'll be 
>> depredated because by chance alone you're far less likely to be killed by 
>> the small number of predators in the area if you're in a group of 100 than 
>> if you're in a group of 2, for example.
> 
> Maybe, but selfish herd payoff calculations have to take account of the costs 
> of the behavior too: increased intra-specific competition, marginalization of 
> the weak, and the much greater conspicuousness of large aggregations to 
> predators.
> 
> I definitely take your point about finite and depletable winter food supplies 
> enforcing more-or-less continuous exploration for fresh resources, but why 
> would this result in larger aggregations being any "twitchier" than smaller 
> ones?
> 
> -Geo
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