Well, the front set up farther north than expected and so did the heavier 
precipitation today. So we had a shallow front across central NY today. The 
surface front was in far northern PA and the front at 5000 feet (roughly) was 
actually across Lake Ontario. So north of this in Canada was the main 
precipitation shield and hence no fallout conditions down here. Central NY saw 
chilly conditions with northerly winds between the surface and a few thousand 
feet with southwest to west winds above this. Overnight many birds were 
migrating north so presumably birds that migrate higher than a few thousand 
feet up kept going into southern Canada on the southwest winds and stopped 
where the rain was. In reality the bird migration likely was sorted out based 
on how high each species or even individuals migrate. To get a fallout we need 
a solid batch of precipitation which typically has cloud tops around 10 to 20 
feet which is a wall for the migrants. Since this precipitation set up farther 
north than predicted is why it wasn't that impressive. However, winds between 
5000 and 15000 feet were strong from the west-southwest and maybe this could be 
why the western meadowlark showed up?  It is also interesting that in western 
NY the front was a bit deeper and could explain why Jody saw more migrants. 
Anyway, always learning. 
Tonight we will see south winds aloft, north winds close to the ground. 
Precipitation again will be across northern NY. More arrivals will be the norm. 
I think once the cold front comes through Monday with heavier rain we will see 
more migrants. 
Thanks and good birding to all! Dave 
    On Friday, April 13, 2018, 7:33:30 AM EDT, David Nicosia 
<daven102...@gmail.com> wrote:  
 Last night there was massive migration in the eastern U.S that stopped in 
northern NY state where there was a rather diffuse front. Not sure if there 
will be any significant concentration of migrants. This morning as of this 
writing the front at the surface is across the northern counties of PA and then 
drops southeast south of the Catskills. At  about 5000 feet up the front is 
farther north roughly from Buffalo to south of Albany but again it is not a 
very sharp front yet. At about 10000 feet up the winds are from the west and 
its hard to find any front. So what this means is that birds that migrate 
between 5000 and 10000 feet and up probably will keep going unless they 
encounter precipitation. At this point there isn't much precipitation near NY 
or in the northeast U.S. Once the storm intensifies in the midwest and pulls 
east, the front at all levels up to 10-15 thousand feet will sharpen up and 
precipitation will spread east. 
Right now it looks like the surface front will lift back north to the southern 
tier of NY state today but the precipitation will stream across northern NY so 
I wouldn't expect too much just arrivals and some pockets of migrants. 
For tonight, the precipitation and associated front aloft shifts south and 
looks to be setting up from about Buffalo to Albany and it will be raining 
north of this. The surface front will actually drop south into northern PA but 
it will be shallow as the precipitation will be farther north. So I would 
expect best conditions across upstate NY north of the southern tier, which 
includes the Finger Lakes area, and Buffalo to Albany. 
Its hard enough to predict the weather so trying to predict what the birds will 
do is even harder. Hopefully some of this will pan out. 
Good Luck!Dave Nicosia -- Cayugabirds-L List Info: Welcome and Basics Rules and 
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