Looking at the three most reliable medium range models, the GFS, European
and Canadian models, we continue to see a large high pressure system
setting up over the southeast U.S Monday night. This high extends from the
surface up through up through 10,000 feet and with its clockwise flow,
Monday night will see a southeasterly flow across the Gulf of Mexico
focusing on Texas and the west Gulf States in the lowest 5000-7000 feet.
Then the flow curves more southerly and then southwesterly by the time it
reaches the northeast U.S. So Tuesday May 1st may see a lot of arrivals
along with temperatures in the 70s and even low 80s in some areas. The bulk
of the migration Monday night will be west of NY state but there is a good
potential for southerly overshoots especially in western and central NY.  I
expect a lot of our earlier warbler species, Baltimore orioles,
rose-breasted grosbeaks, and maybe a few early scarlet tanagers and indigo
buntings to arrive among many others.

Then for Tuesday night, the winds in the lowest 5000-7000 feet will come
right across the Gulf of Mexico up the west side of the Appalachians into
NY state. It looks like more migrants for western/central NY with this flow
pattern. May 2nd should be an awesome day with temperature pushing 80 in
many areas and a lot of new arrivals. I don't see fallout conditions just
new arrivals.

Then Wednesday night, things get more complicated, the european model
brings a cold front through which will intercept this southerly flow making
the 3rd potentially interesting. However, the GFS and Canadian are slower
with this front. The Canadian brings it through Thursday night to Friday
the 4th, the GFS holds it off until the weekend of the 5th and 6th. So that
is where the uncertainty lies, when does this cold front come through and
end this early neotropical migrant surge into NY state. The European closes
the window earliest, late on the 2nd, the GFS keeps the fun going all next

Bottom line, we are looking at May 1st and most of May 2nd as good days for
new arrivals with a cold front coming through the late on the 2nd to the
5th to drop down migrants.

More updates to follow as things become clearer...

Go to birdcast for awesome information up to this weekend. I am looking out
beyond the time period of birdcast of which weather predictions get much
more complicated, making the more detailed information that birdcast
provides impossible...

Dave Nicosia


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