One note of caution with this: it is only the surface winds. Birds, as you
know, migrate from a few thousand feet up to probably over 10,000 feet in some
cases and species.
I find this website most helpful for winds aloft forecasts...
https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ Pick the model of choice. I usually go
with the NAM for the next 3 days and then the GFS out beyond that (but use with
caution). Pick 925 mb for 1-3 feet above ground level winds, 850 mb for around
5000 feet AGL, 700 mb for around 10000 feet AGL and 500 mb for 20000 feet AGL
(roughly). After you choose the level, pick wind speed. It will give you the
wind speed and direction and you can use the slide bar to project out into the
future. You can easily set jet streaks (areas of enhanced winds). The site
also has the surface winds too.
Good birding
Best,Dave
On Tuesday, May 14, 2019, 11:31:06 AM EDT, Christopher T. Tessaglia-Hymes
<c...@cornell.edu> wrote:
I was having an offline conversation with Laura Stenzler and Ton Schat about
what days might be the best in the forecast for their personal 24-hour
bird-a-thon. Laura thought it would be helpful to share some of the information
below with the broader Cayugabirds-l group!
=========
Upon initial review of the forecasts yesterday, the weekend was looking good.
Now, upon review, the forecasts have changed. The warming trend that was
shaping up looks like instead it will be blocked by a northern flow of air
coming down from Canada and the Great Lakes starting Saturday morning. One
forecast model shows the warm air hitting a hard brick wall by Sunday as far
south as a line stretching from around Indianapolis through Columbus and
southeast to Washington DC. That being said, both models show a southern
airflow from Thursday night through Friday morning; albeit chilly, the air will
be from the correct direction to assist migrants attempting to leap-frog their
way north.
I use a combination of weather sites to make inferences (constantly changing…).
Magic Seaweed is one such site. Making sure the time zone is correctly set (top
left option), I choose my region (bottom left menu) and alternate between wind
and pressure (bottom right options; toggle on/off multiple panes at a time, or
just one pane).
Try this link for Great Lakes region, wind, EDT:
https://magicseaweed.com/Great-Lakes-Surf-Chart/76/?type=wind&timezone=America%2FNew_York
| | Great Lakes Charts - Magicseaweed.commagicseaweed.comGlobal surf
forecasting charts. With various chart types including swell, surf, pressure,
wind, MSLP, ECM and sea surface temperature - Magicseaweed.com |
Try this link for Northeastern seaboard region, wind, EDT:
https://magicseaweed.com/US-Northeastern-Seaboard-Surf-Chart/20/?type=wind&timezone=America%2FNew_York
Move your mouse across the bottom from left to right to move through the
forecast dates at the bottom. The closer you are to the current date, the more
accurate the forecast.
Another site is Windy.com.
Lots of custom configuration and tools available, probably the most versatile
site.
The following link has a pin drop positioned approximately over Ithaca with
Temperature selected. Slide the bottom bar across to view the forecast.
Different models can be selected at bottom right (NAM is most accurate and
short-term, ECMWF and GFS are two longer-term models). Top right allows you to
select different element views (wind, temperature, rain, etc.).
https://www.windy.com/-Temperature-temp?temp,38.013,-79.739,6,m:ePOad1V
I found it most interesting to view Temperature element view for the particular
interest of bird migration. The wind always shows as moving white lines. As you
slide the forecast bar across the bottom, you can see how there is a strong
line of demarcation that develops by Saturday morning, the one I described
above. That may hinder migration coming in from the South.
Based upon the current forecast models, it looks like there could be good
fallout conditions along the Lake Erie and Lake Ontario shorelines, or even
here in Ithaca as well. We shall see—forecasts are dynamically changing by the
minute.
Hope this helps!
Sincerely,Chris -- Chris Tessaglia-Hymes PO Box 488 8 Etna Lane Etna, NY 13062
607-351-5740
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