One note of caution with this: it is only the surface winds. Birds, as you
know, migrate from a few thousand feet up to probably over 10,000 feet in
some cases and species.

I find this website most helpful for winds aloft forecasts...

https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/  <https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/>
Pick the model of choice. I usually go with the NAM for the next 3 days and
then the GFS out beyond that (but use with caution).  Pick 925 mb for 1-3
feet above ground level winds, 850 mb for around 5000 feet AGL, 700 mb for
around 10000 feet AGL and 500 mb for 20000 feet AGL (roughly).  After you
choose the level, pick wind speed. It will give you the wind speed and
direction and you can use the slide bar to project out into the future. You
can easily set jet streaks  (areas of enhanced winds). The site also has
the surface winds too.

Good birding

Best,
Dave




On Tue, May 14, 2019 at 11:31 AM Christopher T. Tessaglia-Hymes <
c...@cornell.edu> wrote:

> I was having an offline conversation with Laura Stenzler and Ton Schat
> about what days might be the best in the forecast for their personal
> 24-hour bird-a-thon. Laura thought it would be helpful to share some of the
> information below with the broader Cayugabirds-l group!
>
> =========
>
> Upon initial review of the forecasts yesterday, the weekend was looking
> good. Now, upon review, the forecasts have changed. The warming trend that
> was shaping up looks like instead it will be blocked by a northern flow of
> air coming down from Canada and the Great Lakes starting Saturday morning.
> One forecast model shows the warm air hitting a hard brick wall by Sunday
> as far south as a line stretching from around Indianapolis through Columbus
> and southeast to Washington DC. *That being said, both models show a
> southern airflow from Thursday night through Friday morning; albeit chilly,
> the air will be from the correct direction to assist migrants attempting to
> leap-frog their way north.*
>
> I use a combination of weather sites to make inferences (constantly
> changing…).
>
> Magic Seaweed is one such site. Making sure the time zone is correctly set
> (top left option), I choose my region (bottom left menu) and alternate
> between wind and pressure (bottom right options; toggle on/off multiple
> panes at a time, or just one pane).
>
> Try this link for Great Lakes region, wind, EDT:
>
>
> https://magicseaweed.com/Great-Lakes-Surf-Chart/76/?type=wind&timezone=America%2FNew_York
>
> <https://magicseaweed.com/Great-Lakes-Surf-Chart/76/?type=wind&timezone=America%2FNew_York>
> Great Lakes Charts - Magicseaweed.com
> <https://magicseaweed.com/Great-Lakes-Surf-Chart/76/?type=wind&timezone=America%2FNew_York>
> magicseaweed.com
> Global surf forecasting charts. With various chart types including swell,
> surf, pressure, wind, MSLP, ECM and sea surface temperature -
> Magicseaweed.com <http://magicseaweed.com/>
>
>
> Try this link for Northeastern seaboard region, wind, EDT:
>
>
> https://magicseaweed.com/US-Northeastern-Seaboard-Surf-Chart/20/?type=wind&timezone=America%2FNew_York
>
>
> Move your mouse across the bottom from left to right to move through the
> forecast dates at the bottom. The closer you are to the current date, the
> more accurate the forecast.
>
> Another site is Windy.com <http://windy.com/>.
>
> Lots of custom configuration and tools available, probably the most
> versatile site.
>
> The following link has a pin drop positioned approximately over Ithaca
> with Temperature selected. Slide the bottom bar across to view the
> forecast. Different models can be selected at bottom right (NAM is most
> accurate and short-term, ECMWF and GFS are two longer-term models). Top
> right allows you to select different element views (wind, temperature,
> rain, etc.).
>
> https://www.windy.com/-Temperature-temp?temp,38.013,-79.739,6,m:ePOad1V
>
>
> I found it most interesting to view Temperature element view for the
> particular interest of bird migration. The wind always shows as moving
> white lines. As you slide the forecast bar across the bottom, you can see
> how there is a strong line of demarcation that develops by Saturday
> morning, the one I described above. That may hinder migration coming in
> from the South.
>
> Based upon the current forecast models, it looks like there could be good
> fallout conditions* along the Lake Erie and Lake Ontario shorelines, or
> even here in Ithaca as well. We shall see—forecasts are dynamically
> changing by the minute.*
>
> Hope this helps!
>
> Sincerely,
> Chris
>
> --
> Chris Tessaglia-Hymes
> PO Box 488
> 8 Etna Lane
> Etna, NY 13062
> 607-351-5740
>
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