It seems immensely powerful, but my impression is it shows just how much 
information can be extrapolated from the PDB if a technique that can make use 
of "deep similarity" can be employed.

Obviously alphafold2 can make use of relationships that arent limited to direct 
homology, but if there is a fundamental "cellular context-free" relationship 
between sequence and structure (I'm sceptical about this) then it must be via 
the sidechains.

If the sidechains predictions are worse than the backbone, and loops are also 
imperfect, then it strongly suggests that the process is still inferring the 
structure (albeit in a very clever way that can determine and weight 
similarities that go far beyond those implied by direct homology) rather than  
"building" it de novo.

Obviously sidechain and loop positions are important when we think about the 
applications of macro molecular structures, but I'm not qualified to say 
whether there is actually enough data in the PDB to beat the law of diminishing 
returns and reliably get trustworthy "experimental quality" predictions, and 
how that will scale with complex proteins which may be very context dependent 
in their ability to fold.

We probably dont need a universal understanding of sequence/structure to get 
there, but the claim that this is just a matter of time only really follows on 
from the assumption of a true de-novo method.  Without it, the learning set may 
need to be bigger than all solved (or even solveable) structures.

This could have been framed as something really exciting and complementary to 
experimental structural biology (trivial MR, much better denovo EM etc..) at a 
time when multi-disciplinary approaches are producing incredible insights, but 
the press that has been generated, seems  misleading, and I fear this is what 
the public and funders will base their decisions upon.

Just my two cents.

Matthew.




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________________________________
From: CCP4 bulletin board <CCP4BB@JISCMAIL.AC.UK> on behalf of Cedric Govaerts 
<cedric.govae...@ulb.ac.be>
Sent: Wednesday, December 9, 2020 9:37:17 AM
To: CCP4BB@JISCMAIL.AC.UK <CCP4BB@JISCMAIL.AC.UK>
Subject: Re: [ccp4bb] External: Re: [ccp4bb] AlphaFold: more thinking and less 
pipetting (?)

Dear All

After about 10 (!) years of (very) hard work we solved the structures of our 
dearest membrane transporter.  Dataset at 2.9 And resolution, fairly 
anisotropic, experimental phasing, and many looooong nights with Coot and 
Buster to achieve model refinement.

The experimental structure had a well defined ligand nicely coordinated but 
also a lipid embedded inside the binding cavity (a complete surprise but 
biologically relevant) and two detergent molecules well defined 
(experimental/crystallisation artefact).

As our paper was accepted basically when CASP organisers were calling for 
targets I offered my baby to the computing Gods. However we only provided the 
sequence to CASP, no info regarding any ligand or lipid.

Less than a month after, the CASP team contacted us and send us the best model. 
 In fact it was 2 half models as the transporter is a pseudo dimer, with the 
N-lobe and C-lobe moving relative to each other during transport cycle, thus 
divided as two domains in CASP.

The results were breathtaking. 0.7 And RSMD on one half, 0.6 on the other. And 
yes, group 427 was the superpower (did not know at the time that it was 
AlphaFold).

We had long discussions with the CASP team, as -for us- this almost exact 
modelling was dream-like (or science fiction) and -at some point- we were even 
suspecting fraud, as our coordinates had travelled over the internet a few 
times around when interacting with colleagues.  The organisers reassured us 
that we were not the only target that had been “nailed” so no reason to suspect 
any wrongdoing.

To this day I am still baffled and I would be happy to hear from the community, 
maybe from some of the CASP participants.

The target is T024, the “perfect" models are domain-split version (T024-D1 and 
T024-D2), as AlphaFold2 did not perform so well on the complete assembly.
Deposited PDB is 6T1Z

Cedric

PS: I should also note that many other groups performed very well, much better 
than I would have dreamed, including on the full protein but just not as 
crazy-good.
—
Prof. Cedric Govaerts, Ph.D.
Universite Libre de Bruxelles
Campus Plaine. Phone :+32 2 650 53 77
Building BC, Room 1C4 203
Boulevard du Triomphe, Acces 2
1050 Brussels
Belgium
http://govaertslab.ulb.ac.be/


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