Ian,

Thank you.  This is not an April fools..
Rams
[email protected]



On Apr 1, 2023, at 10:46 AM, Ian Tickle <[email protected]> wrote:

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Hi Ramaswamy

I assume this is an April Fool's but it's still a serious question because many 
reviewers who are not crystallographers or electron microscopists may not fully 
appreciate the difference currently between the precision of structures 
obtained by experimental and predictive methods, though the latter are 
certainly catching up.  The answer of course lies in the mean co-ordinate 
precision, related to the map resolution.

Quoting https://people.cryst.bbk.ac.uk/~ubcg05m/precgrant.html :

"The accuracy and precision required of an experimentally determined model of a 
macromolecule depends on the biological questions being asked of the structure. 
 Questions involving the overall fold of a protein, or its topological 
similarity to other proteins, can be answered by structures of fairly low 
precision such as those obtained from very low resolution X-ray crystal 
diffraction data [or AlphaFold].  Questions involving reaction mechanisms 
require much greater accuracy and precision as obtained from well-refined, 
high-resolution X-ray structures, including proper statistical analyses of the 
standard uncertainties (s.u.'s) of atomic positions and bond lengths.".

According to https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03819-2 :

The accuracy of AlphaFold structures at the time of writing (2021) was around 
1.0 Ang. RMSD for main-chain and 1.5 Ang. RMSD for side-chain atoms and 
probably hasn't changed much since.  This is described as "highly accurate"; 
however this only means that AlphaFold's accuracy is much higher in comparison 
with other prediction methods, not in comparison with experimental methods.  
Also note that AlphaFold's accuracy is estimated by comparison with the X-ray 
structure which remains the "gold standard"; there's no way (AFAIK) of 
independently assessing AlphaFold's accuracy or precision.

Quoting https://scripts.iucr.org/cgi-bin/paper?S0907444998012645 :

"Data of 0.94 A resolution for the 237-residue protein concanavalin A are used 
in unrestrained and restrained full-matrix inversions to provide standard 
uncertainties sigma(r) for positions and sigma(l) for bond lengths. sigma(r) is 
as small as 0.01 A for atoms with low Debye B values but increases strongly 
with B."

There's a yawning gap between 1.0 - 1.5 Ang. and 0.01 Ang.!  Perhaps AlphaFold 
structures should be deposited using James Holton's new PDB format (now that is 
an April Fool's !).

One final suggestion for a reference in your grant application: 
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.03.08.483439v2 .

Cheers

-- Ian


On Sat, 1 Apr 2023 at 13:06, Subramanian, Ramaswamy 
<[email protected]<mailto:[email protected]>> wrote:
Dear All,

I am unsure if all other groups will get it - but I am sure this group will 
understand the frustration.

My NIH grant did not get funded.  A few genuine comments - they make excellent 
sense.  We will fix that.

One major comment is, “Structures can be predicted by alpfafold and other 
software accurately, so the effort put on the grant to get structures by X-ray 
crystallography/cryo-EM is not justified.”

The problem is when a company with billions of $$s develops a method and blasts 
it everywhere - the message is so pervasive…

Question: Is there a canned consensus paragraph that one can add with 
references to grants with structural biology (especially if the review group is 
not a structural biology group) to say why the most modern structure prediction 
programs are not a substitute for structural work?

Thanks.


Rams
[email protected]<mailto:[email protected]>




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