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From: [email protected]>
Date: Sun, Feb 15, 2009 at 7:40 PM
Subject: Nuclear folly marches on
To: kt @yahoo.com>, [email protected], [email protected]



http://www.manilatimes.net/national/2009/feb/16/yehey/opinion/20090216opi2.html

Nuclear folly marches on
By Dan Mariano

Rep. Juan Miguel Arroyo of Pampanga recently said that a bill seeking
to commission the Bataan Nuclear Power Plant (BNPP) in Morong, Bataan,
is as good as passed. The chairman of the House energy committee
reported that the bill already has the support of 190 out of 238
congressmen.

While the proponents of nuclear energy in Congress have closed ranks
behind the bill authored by Rep. Mark Cojuangco of Pangasinan, their
consensus has also roused widespread opposition—and not just from the
usual green militants.

Interestingly, even an aide of the Pampanga representative's mother
has voiced his misgivings about Cojuangco's proposal. Former Sen.
Heherson Alvarez, now President Arroyo's adviser on climate change,
has warned that commissioning the BNPP would be "fraught with danger."

Work on the light-water reactor began in 1976. It was initially
projected to cost $500 million. However, by the time the
Westinghouse-built BNPP was completed eight years later, the final
bill had zoomed to $2.3 billion—thanks in no small measure to the
kickbacks reportedly extracted by officials and "cronies" of the
Marcos dictatorship.

Even before he was toppled, the dictator himself had held the BNPP's
commissioning in abeyance after a fact-finding panel reported numerous
concerns about the plant's long-term safety. Those concerns remain.

In 1991, Bataan—like many parts of Luzon—was rocked by the eruption of
Mount Pinatubo in nearby Zambales province. Proponents pointed out
that the BNPP withstood the cataclysmic event, and was thus shown to
be safe.

The proponents, however, conveniently failed to mention that the
nuclear plant was already mothballed by then—and nobody knows for sure
if its reactor and other components would have endured the tremors
that accompanied the eruption had the BNPP been in full operation.

Faulty forecast

Cojuangco's bill followed other bids to commission the BNPP. This
time, projections of a severe power shortage by 2010—made by the
Department of Energy (DOE)—have been trotted out to justify the
congressman's proposal.

According to Greenpeace, the Energy department's demand forecasting
has frequently been criticized by experts as faulty, projecting power
shortages even with existing supply gluts.

OK, let us assume the Energy department forecast were accurate. Just
the same, the environmental group points out, if now is the time to
build more power plants then this is also the best opportunity for the
Philippines to fully harness its massive renewable energy potential.

With the passage of the Renewable Energy Law last year, Greenpeace
pointed out, the DOE's scenario offers the perfect occasion for the
entry and development of new and renewable energy technologies, which
can strategically displace polluting power plants—and rule out
nuclear.

In 2008, Korean Electric Power Co. (Kepco) was asked by the
government's National Power Corp. to conduct a two-year study on the
feasibility of commissioning the BNPP. But even without the Kepco
report, the congressmen seem to be already convinced that nuclear
energy is the way to go if the country is to avoid massive outages.

In House Bill 4631, Cojuangco estimates that rehabilitating the Bataan
plant would cost some $1 billion, which is not cheap for a
rehabilitated plant, according to Greenpeace, as the figure is
approximately the cost of a new power plant.

The Pangasinan lawmaker proposes that half f the cost for the Bataan
plant rehab be sourced from an additional charge to consumers by
utility companies while the other half will come from loans.

It would be a double-whammy for Filipinos. They will be subjected to
higher electric bills—in a country that already has the highest power
rates in Asia, next to Japan. They will also have to pay more taxes
just so the government could launch its nuclear folly.

Besides, expert opinion and our own experience show that the final
bill for the Bataan plant rehab is bound to overshoot Cojuangco's
$1-billion estimate.

Worldwide, the cost of building a nuclear reactor is consistently two
to three times higher than the nuclear industry estimates, Greenpeace
reported. In India, the country with the most recent experience of
nuclear reactor construction, completion costs for the last 10
reactors have, on average, been 300 percent over budget. In Finland,
the construction of a new reactor is already 1.5 billion euros over
budget.

In contrast, power generators running on sunlight, wind, water
currents, biomass and geother-mal heat to produce electricity cost so
much less and present few, if any, of the dangers inherent in nuclear
energy.

Renewable energy sources are mostly free for the taking. They have
little or no fuel input and their competitive advantage remain
relatively constant no matter how much the market price of oil, gas,
coal and uranium changes.

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