Ernie : Well, for sure --at least not at this time-- we cannot know if the "Teheran Letter" is legitimate of a forgery itself. But ( 1 ) it seems real and ( 2 ) is sufficiently plausible to be interpreted as authentic by most people, not only in Iran, but elsewhere including the United States.
Even if we are only discussing perception, the perception that Mussavi actually won the election puts pressure on the WH as well as Western European gvts and other gvts, such as Russia, China, Japan, and India. So far the Obama admin has been doing a tightrope act, not saying too much and not too little. With the letter the rules change --even if BHO's advisors are not too swift and cannot understand the obvious. The pressures this puts Iran's supreme ayatollah under are even more monumental, maybe monumental ^ 2, but let's focus on Obama. The letter is ( apparent ) proof that the election was stolen. Even more blatantly than anything LBJ ever did, or Richard J Daley. Now what ? The WH has no choice but to strongly protest the rigged election. If it does, then kiss goodbye to the engagement strategy with Iran that was proposed as recently as a couple of months ago. If it remains in a play-it-safe mode, then it becomes open to very serious criticism from both L and R. As an alternative the admin might take the view that the letter could be forged. Here's the risk in this approach. Say it too loudly and you are disproven and it turns out to be genuine, and you look like an idiot. Hyper cautious, acting in bad faith for "establishment reasons," and cynical. I'd say that the WH has maybe a day or two when it can remain cautious and no damages done. It must climb down off the fence by that time or else suffer serious political consequences. And, O yeah, the Israelis will make the most of this, be assured. But I can't begin to guess HOW they will try to use the letter. Also, suppose the election is a "real fraud." What does this do to the reputation of the mullah's regime in Iraq ? That is not inconsequential, you know. Goodness gracious, this could get interesting. Billy ---------------------------------------- In a message dated 6/18/2009 9:57:02 A.M. Pacific Daylight Time, [email protected] writes: Another interesting factoid. Alas, there's so much confusion I doubt we'll ever learn the whole truth. Still good to see civil society giving the mullahs a hotseat. :-) -enp On Jun 18, 2009, at 9:52 AM, [email protected]_ (mailto:[email protected]) wrote: .independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/fisk/robert-fisk-secret-letter-prove s-mousavi-won-poll-1707896.html Robert Fisk: Secret letter 'proves Mousavi won poll' Thursday, 18 June 2009 They were handing out the photocopies by the thousand under the plane trees in the centre of the boulevard, single sheets of paper grabbed by the opposition supporters who are now wearing black for the 15 Iranians who have been killed in Tehran – who knows how many more in the rest of the country? – since the election results gave Mahmoud Ahmadinejad more than 24 million votes and a return to the presidency. But for the tens of thousands marking their fifth day of protests yesterday – and for their election campaign hero, Mirhossein Mousavi, who officially picked up just 13 million votes – those photocopies were irradiated. For the photocopy appeared to be a genuine but confidential letter from the Iranian minister of interior, Sadeq Mahsuli, to Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, written on Saturday 13 June, the day after the elections, and giving both Mr Mousavi and his ally, Mehdi Karroubi, big majorities in the final results. In a highly sophisticated society like Iran, forgery is as efficient as anywhere in the West and there are reasons for both distrusting and believing this document. But it divides the final vote between Mr Mousavi and Mr Karroubi in such a way that it would have forced a second run-off vote – scarcely something Mousavi's camp would have wanted. Headed "For the Attention of the Supreme Leader" it notes "your concerns for the 10th presidential elections" and "and your orders for Mr Ahmadinejad to be elected president", and continues "for your information only, I am telling you the actual results". Mr Mousavi has 19,075,623, Mr Karroubi 13,387,104, and Mr Ahmadinejad a mere 5,698,417. _______________________________________________ Centroids mailing list: [email protected]_ (mailto:[email protected]) _http://radicalcentrism.com/mailman/listinfo/centroids_radicalcentrism.com_ (http://radicalcentrism.com/mailman/listinfo/centroids_radicalcentrism.com) Archives at http://radicalcentrism.org/pipermail/centroids_radicalcentrism.com/ = _______________________________________________ Centroids mailing list: [email protected] http://radicalcentrism.com/mailman/listinfo/centroids_radicalcentrism.com Archives at http://radicalcentrism.org/pipermail/centroids_radicalcentrism.com/
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