On Sep 16, 2009, at 8:39 AM, [email protected] wrote:
Not exactly RC in character, nonetheless the article makes a number
of Radical Centrist points.
You're right; he seems to hate both parties equally, but at least he's
even-handed. :-)
His analysis is probably not too far from the truth, though I think
he's counting Obama out too soon. It'll be very interesting to see
where we are in January at the next SOU. If we have:
- a recovering job market
- tolerable health care reform
- a viable strategy in Afghanistan
Then Obama will probably be hailed as a great leader, whether he
deserves it or not.
If any one of those goes south, though, the Democrats will have a
rough year...
-- Ernie P.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Realignment dead, dealignment now
By Brent Budowsky - 09/15/09 04:35 PM ET
Realignment is dead. President Barack Obama and Democrats blew it.
Dealignment has arrived. Republicans blew it, and are now so
repellent that Americans increasingly reject both political parties.
In the latest Washington Post/ABC poll, 43 percent of voters labeled
themselves independents.
Democrats should ask why, this summer, the vaunted Obama machine and
e-mail list inspired virtually none of his supporters to attend town
meetings, compared to opponents, who inspired masses to dominate the
summer debate.
Republicans should ask why they still lag behind Democrats in polls,
while they become a party that honors those who promote fanatical
hatred toward the president that is ominous and dangerous to the
nation, and turns off those who decide elections.
Here is how Obama blew it: Many Americans who endured the pain of a
rip-off recession now endure the pain of a rip-off recovery. For
them, life under a
Democratic president and Congress means trading one rip-off for
another, giving them neither hope, nor change, nor an end to their
pain.
2008 was a 1932 moment. But the power of eloquence ends when the
reality of people’s lives does not change. If a president reads a
book about Franklin Roosevelt and then names Timothy Geithner to the
Treasury, America gets Geithner, not Roosevelt, and more status quo,
not change.
Under Obama, as under George W. Bush, we will have banner headlines
about historic Christmas bonuses for bankers and Wall Street that
will enflame the nation, alongside headlines about 10 percent
unemployment, declining home values, mounting foreclosures,
skyrocketing credit card rates and a war that will require more
troops without a plan for success.
Generations of Americans will pay for the bailouts, while those who
took them have historic paydays and those who pay for them endure
the pain under Obama, as they did under Bush.
The difference between realignment, which is dead, and dealignment,
which has arrived, is that many Americans remember life under the
most unpopular Republican president in a generation and compare it
to life under a Democratic president with large majorities in
Congress — and for them, life has not gotten better, and for some,
it has gotten worse.
The last epic realignment battle began in 1968 and was won by
Republicans with a majority that began with Nixon and lasted through
Reagan and Bush 41.
Kevin Phillips forecast this in his book The Emerging Republican
Majority. He argued that white working-class voters would swing from
Democrats to the new Republican majority. They were called the
silent majority and Reagan Democrats.
In 1968, the battle was between Robert Kennedy, who fought to unite
working-class whites and minority voters over shared economic
interests, and Nixon, who sought to divide them over social and
cultural issues. Kennedy tragically died. Nixon tragically won.
Reagan cemented the new alignment.
In 2008, Obama could have been the FDR or Robert Kennedy of our
times. He campaigned for this and was elected for this. He inspired
waves of participation, registration and turnout. He united young
people, blacks, Hispanics, women and working-class whites with
victories in Ohio, Indiana, North Carolina and other states.
Obama, like Reagan, could have cemented this realignment by
governing as a fighting champion of the extraordinary coalition of
the alienated and hopeful who elected him, but has not. He has
governed as a standard-issue Democrat achieving standard-issue
results, leaving intact a litany of abuses that impose pain on our
people, restoring a political status quo with a Democratic advantage
rather than a new realigned and historic majority.
His speech about Wall Street this week only highlights what has not
been achieved since Inauguration Day.
Now the bailout rage has bipartisan targets. The president has
achieved largely status quo results on the whole swath of finance,
Wall Street, banking, bailout, lending, credit card, foreclosure and
mortgage issues, with near 10 percent of the nation jobless, which
leaves realignment dead until real change arrives.
With Republicans looking like the Party of No that tolerates the
politics of hate, the voters reject them as well. The huge tide of
participation for Democrats in 2008 has become a new tide of
political independence in 2009.
We have entered a volatile moment. The president can still seize the
mantle of fighting for great change uniting a broad coalition behind
common interests. But until this fight is finally waged for real,
realignment is dead, dealignment will prevail and neither party will
win the broad confidence of the nation.
Budowsky was an aide to former Sen. Lloyd Bentsen and Bill
Alexander, then chief deputy majority whip of the House. He holds an
LL.M. degree in international financial law from the London School
of Economics. He can be read on The Hill’s Pundits Blog and reached
at [email protected] .
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