(http://www.dcexaminer.com/)
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Opinion
(http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/blogs/beltway-confidential)
Lessons from the 2009 election results
By: _Michael Barone_
(http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/bios/michael-barone.html)
Senior Political Analyst
11/04/09 3:08 AM EST
My _Wednesday Examiner column_
(http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/politics/Va__-N_J_-races-show-voters-changing-course-8479758-68998517.html)
, written
as the 2009 election returns were coming in, stands up pretty well. But
let me add some observations written as the course of the elections became
clearer.
First, in the governor elections in Virginia and New Jersey, the
Democratic candidate ran far behind Barack Obama’s percentages in 2008 and the
Republican candidates ran ahead of George W. Bush’s percentages in 2004. The
numbers are pretty daunting. In _Virginia _
(http://www.sbe.virginia.gov/cms/Election_Information/Election_Results/2009/November_General_Election.html)
Creigh Deeds won 41% of the votes, way behind _Barack Obama’s 53% _
(http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/) in 2008. And in New Jersey Democratic
incumbent
_Jon Corzine_
(http://elections.nj.com/dynamic/files/elections/2009/by_state/NJ_Page_1103.html?SITE=NJNEWELN&SECTION=POLITICS)
won 45% of the votes,
way behind _Obama’s 57% _ (http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/) in 2008.
In contrast, the Republican candidates won higher percentages than _Bush
won _ (http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/) in the recent high-water mark of
the Republican party in 2004. Republican Bob McDonnell won 59% in Virginia,
well ahead of Bush’s 54%. And Republican Chris Christie won 49%, ahead of
Bush’s 46%. On the basis of these numbers you could say—in races where the
issues were reasonably congruent though not identical to national issues—
that Democrats were performing far below their recent optimal levels and
Republicans were performing well above them.
Second, and here I want to credit for this observations longtime
Democratic pollster and political analyst Pat Caddell, affluent suburban
voters
moved sharply toward Republicans in 2009.
Bergen County, New Jersey, a 56%-42% Corzine constituency in 2005, came
within a point or two of voting for Christie, and in Virginia McDonnell
carried 51%-49% Fairfax County—Republican for years but recently in cultural
issues and with an increasing immigrant population Democratic (60%-39% Obama
in 2008). I
n addition, Westchester County, New York, voted 58%-42% for a Republican
county execctive after voting almost exactly the opposite way, in a race
involving the same two candidates, four years before . The Philadelphia
suburban counties, increasingly Democratic in 1996, 2000, 2004 and 2008, voted
_Republican _ (http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/#Top) in a partisan race
for the Supreme Court in 2009.
>From the 1996 election up through and including 2008., affluent counties
in the East, Midwest and West have trended Democratic, largely through
distaste for the religious and cultural conservatives whom voters there have
seen (not without reason) as dominant in the Republican party. Now, with the
specter of higher tax rates and a vastly expanded public sector, they may be—
possibly—headed in the other direction. An interesting trend to watch.
Finally, third, what will be the impact of these elections on forthcoming
votes in Congress on the Democratic leaddership’s controversial and
unpopular health legislation. The Virginia Board of Elections give us some
hints
when it aggregates _the results by congressional district. _
(https://www.voterinfo.sbe.virginia.gov/election/DATA/2009/37C2EDEB-FACB-44C1-AF70-05FB616DCD
62/UnOfficial/2_d_41C57304-C645-42F9-B344-968D3EE33B12_s.shtml) In the 2008
elections three Democrats captured three previously Republican
congressional districts in Virginia, giving Democrats six or the eleven-member
delegation.
The results of the gubernatorial election show that at least some of these
Democrats are imperiled.
In the 2nd congressional district, where Democrat Glenn Nye beat
Republican incumbent Thelma Drake 52%-47%, McDonnell beat Deeds 62%-38%. In
the 5th
congressional district, where Democrat Tom Perriello beat Republican
incumbent Virgil Goode 50.01%-49.85%, or a margin of 727 popular votes, the
lowest in the country, McDonnell beat Deeds 61%-39%. In the 11th congressional
district, where Democrat Gerry Connally won 55%-43% a district vacated by
Republican incumbent Tom Davis, McDonnell beat Deeds 55%-45%. And the
southwest, coal-producing “Fighting Ninth,” represented since 1982 by Democrat
Rick Boucher, voted 67%-33% for McDonnell.
I cannot imagine that Congressmen Nye, Perriello, Connally and Boucher
have not already accessed the websites which have shown the position of their
constituents in a contest which, while like all governorship contests has
its own specific features, was also in its contrast on issue positions
reasonably congruent with those prevailing on national issues. And I can
certainly respond with sympathy if any or all of these incumbents responded to
these numbers with a two-word comment of which I will relay only the first
word which is, “Oh.”
The 2009 election results are certainly not going to make it easy for
Speaker Nancy Pelosi to round up the needed 218 votes for Democrats’ health
care bills.
'
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http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/blogs/beltway-confidential/Lessons
-from-the-2009-election-results-69054827.html
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