Politics is demography How much the election results for November 3, 2009, mean for 2010 is unclear, but the balloting did highlight some demographic changes that are worth thinking about. ( 1 ) seniors are abandoning the Democrats by large margins ( 2 ) Independents are abandoning the Democrats by only somewhat smaller margins ( 3 ) the 2008 youth vote fell by not quite half ( 4 ) the 2008 Black vote also fell by similar percentages ( 5 ) the upscale vote switched to the GOP in 2009, on average ( including contests in Pennsylvania ) by anywhere from 10 to 20 points. ------------------------------------------- There would seem to be a message in this. An amazing comment from the WH press secretary, the president did not watch the election returns on TV. O yeah ? As Carl Rove has said, ALL presidents watch election returns on TV, as do all serious politicos or both parties. Either the prez is incredibly stupid, which manifestly is not true. or is in denial. Not a good sign. ---------------------------------------------------- The GOP loss is NY 23 needs to be explained and the best view seems to be that the reason had to do with the high-handedness of the GOP establishment in denying any need for a primary election to determine their candidate, hence selection of a "moderate" Republican who, in actual fact, is a Leftie. The rank and file revolted and turned to a member of the Conservative Party who was a complete unknown only 30 days ago. The official GOP candidate withdrew and then threw her support to the Democrat. Essentially the Republican Party in NY 23 is in serious disarray. Some big name Republicans like Newt campaigned for the official candidate before other "big guns" like Sarah Palin and Fred Thompson arrived on the scene to stump for the Conservative Party candidate. This was almost enough to pull Doug Hoffman over the top, but not quite. ---------------------------------------- MSM "wisdom" has it that "Social Issues" are divisive and ought to be shunned. Translation, give homosexuals what they want and support NOW and abortion. No clear ( or other ) message about abortion or feminism on the 3rd, but when even Left-leaning Maine turns down homosexual marriage by a solid 5 points, obviously the media is off the deep end. What else is new ? ----------------------------------------- Unemployment is crucial in elections and if it is high the party in the WH suffers whether Democratic or Republican. Even the most optimistic forecasts for 2010 have unemployment rates remaining high into next Fall. I am not at all convinced about this, and more-or-less expect the start of a jobs recovery in the Spring, IF this happens the Democrats could still dodge a bullet next November, but if jobs recovery is sluggish, they will take a hit. Flat rate of unemployment compared to today and the hit will be severe. My opinion of the elections just concluded. Billy
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