What the current exodus of incumbents from seeking re-election means for Democrats is that many in the party see the Fall elections as probably unwinnable. While there have been even more GOP incumbents not seeking re-election, most are seeking other office, either higher at the national level, or at the state level, viz., governorships. This still is January. Talking heads on business shows, that is, smart people who make their living as market forecasters, agree that a recovery is in progress and only differ on its scope. My sense of things is that 2010 will be "weak" as recoveries go, with a possible Summer "dip" as stimulus effects run their course and business runs on its merits with no new money from Uncle Sam. Given some serious problems still at large, especially employment, the recovery may be anemic until 2011. This is my latest "take" on the situation. Subject to revision in the Spring. We shall see if an expected turn-around in hiring finally takes place. If it does and month-by-month unemployment drops from the current 10 % to 9.5, then 8.9 , then 8.4. then 7.7 etc, all bets about Democratic Party disaster in November are off. We know how Reagan and the Republicans fared in 1982 in the midst of that recession, which is now looking more-and-more like a template for 2010. But stay tuned. Best forecast for the moment, Democratic losses in Congress probably significant, a new Senate at around 55-45 , with the House still under Democratic control, but with the current majority cut in half. However, I would not bet a dime on these prognostications since everything is riding on how the economy looks in April or May. That and the Islamic wild card. Or some new scandal, yet to be announced. Billy ===================================================== Real Clear Politics Hold Seat ยป January 6th, 2010 _Gallup: Obama Begins 2nd Year w/Highest Disapproval Rating in Modern Era_ (http://realclearpolitics.blogs.time.com/2010/01/06/gallup-obama-begins-2nd-year-whighest-disapproval-rating-in-modern-era/)
According to _Gallup's first full data set for 2010_ (http://www.gallup.com/poll/124949/Approval-Obama-Starts-2010-Shaky-Spot.aspx) , Barack Obama starts his second year in office with the highest disapproval rating of any President since Eisenhower. Obama begins 2010 with 44% of the public disapproving of the job he's doing as president. That's four points higher than the next closest president (Reagan), six points higher than Bill Clinton, and 17 points higher than Jimmy Carter. As you can see from Gallup's graphic below, Obama also begins his second year in office with the second worst job approval rating of any president in the last 56 years: (http://timerealclearpolitics.files.wordpress.com/2010/01/gallup2010.gif)
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