Ernie: I did a study of Indies in 2008. Need to revisit the subject when I get the time, but to the extent that data remains true-- Indies are high percentage in maybe dozen states, ie, in the 40 % range. In most other states the % is a fourth or thereabouts, less in another dozen states. Thus, the phenomenon is unevenly distributed and the lessons of Massachusetts, RE: Independent voters, are only partly true in, say, California, with its approx 25 % rate. In some elections the Indy % drops as former Dems get all teary eyed about a "new Democrat" who seems to be sorta independent, and,of course, the same for former Republicans who have become Indies. Some of the old loyalty remains even if it is dormant --or vestigial, as in my case The major parties aren't totally out to lunch and can mobilize to deal with new threats to their power and do so successfully because they have resources and tons of $$$. Oddly, neither party ( although one smart thing about candidate McCain was that he made appeal to Indies a conscious thing, unlike OHB, who won many of them almost without a plan to do so because 08 was the kind of year it was ) has so far made this factor in political life a priority. But when either one does, the other will follow suit and we can expect major changes at that time. What just may be happening --at least until one of the majors figures it all out-- is political re-alignment. Think 1860 when the major parties split 4 ways. , or possibly 1912, another 4 way race That is, incredible when you think about it, a chance may exist on the horizon for the start of an RC party, Unity 08, but next time not a dud, but something with guts and serious backing. Possibly tech supported, or neo-Yuppie supported, or some new coalition of minorities outside the Democratic tent, or activated Evangelicals fed up with the GOP, and so forth. I'm not going to hold my breath, but for the first time the idea seems at least a little realistic. VOTE RADICAL CENTRIST throw both Democratic and Republican rascals out ! How I wish it becomes the real-life future I utterly hate BOTH major parties. And I don't mean sorta, I mean viscerally. Sincerely Billy ========================================================= In a message dated 1/24/2010 8:36:36 P.M. Pacific Standard Time, [email protected] writes:
By a hard-core libertarian colleague of mine -- still a largely (thought not completely) compelling argument... > Here are the two facts that have given me seriously to think about this: > > 1. More than 50% of the Massachusetts electorate is registered independent. > > 2. In the last week of the campaign, Scott Brown was able to raise over a million dollars by going direct to potential supporters via the Internet. > > These data strike at the heart of the two essential functions of the political party: getting out the vote, and raising campaign funds for its candidates. Scott Brown proved that he could succeed, in a traditionally Democratic state and without significant backing from the national Republican party, pretty purely on grassroots enthusiasm and the leverage provided by Internet social media. -- Ernie P. http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=1601 There’s been a lot of punditry emitted in the wake of Scott Brown’s victory in the Massachusetts special election to replace Teddy Kennedy. All of it that I’ve seen is aimed at making some partisan point in the Democratic vs. Republican tug of war. But the facts of the Brown victory seem to me to suggest something different and more radical: that political parties as we have known them for the last 200 years may be obsolete, or at least well on their way to becoming so. Here are the two facts that have given me seriously to think about this: 1. More than 50% of the Massachusetts electorate is registered independent. 2. In the last week of the campaign, Scott Brown was able to raise over a million dollars by going direct to potential supporters via the Internet. These data strike at the heart of the two essential functions of the political party: getting out the vote, and raising campaign funds for its candidates. Scott Brown proved that he could succeed, in a traditionally Democratic state and without significant backing from the national Republican party, pretty purely on grassroots enthusiasm and the leverage provided by Internet social media. Nationally, the percentage of voters refusing to affiliate with a party isn ’t over 50% yet, but it’s been heading steadily upwards. Straight-ticket voting has been in decline for decades. Furthermore, both major parties are showing signs of disintegration as factions near their edges grow increasingly restive and (in part) bolt to form separate movements. This is clearest on the Republican side. The Tea Party movement has an ambiguous relationship with the national Republicans, sometimes behaving like a fiscal-conservative party faction but often proclaiming itself a separate movement and opposing party-backed Republican candidates. On the Democratic side, the “netroots” around sites like Daily Kos and Democratic Underground are putting increasing distance between themselves and the national Democrats. The left-wing revolt against the Pelosi/Reid/Obama health-care reform bill is a leading indicator here. What the netroots and the Tea Partiers have in common, of course, is that they’re both virtual organizations that rely on the Internet for the reductions in internal coordination costs they would normally get from having offices and org charts. Glen Reynolds and a few others have noticed this; there’s been some muttering in the blogosphere about “disintermediation”, but nobody until now seems to have thought seriously about the medium-to-long-term effects on the major parties. The major parties have anyway been looking both battered and sclerotic for a while now. On the Democratic side, the party has had to rely increasingly on the personal charisma of adventurers (the Clintons, Obama) to draw voters who no longer have any loyalty to the party’s platform or history. On the Republican side, that party is so bereft of leadership that it has in effect outsourced that function to conservative talk-radio hosts. Now, the political parties increasingly find that they have to compete with the Internet-mediated political networks — and the parties are losing. _______________________________________________ Centroids mailing list: [email protected] http://radicalcentrism.com/mailman/listinfo/centroids_radicalcentrism.com Archives at http://radicalcentrism.org/pipermail/centroids_radicalcentrism.com/
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