Al Jazeera
UPDATED ON:
Friday, March 05, 2010
13:34 Mecca time, 10:34 GMT FOCUS: IRAQ ELECTION 2010 Iraq
'determined to regain dignity' By Anas Altikriti
Since the occupation of Baghdad and the fall of the Baath regime in April
2003, the Iraqi people have gone to the polls almost once every year, on
average.
Among the countless running jokes in Iraq today is the one where an
independent candidate pledges to save the country millions by keeping his
current
election posters plastered through the capital's streets – permanently.
Jokes aside, however, the March 7 parliamentary elections promise to be
unlike any the Iraqi people have ever experienced. Despite shortcomings,
misgivings and failures of the political structure established post-2003, it
seems that most Iraqi factions have finally become resigned to the fact that
this is as good as it gets.
(http://interactive.aljazeera.net/iraqelections)
They realise that any socio-economic and democratic progress must come
from within that political structure itself.
Point in case is the fiercely critical Alliance of Muslim Scholars, who
have previously vehemently opposed and discourage any participation in the
political structure, have this time around fallen ominously silent.
Reports abound in Baghdad that they may secretly and indirectly be backing
_Iyad Allawi's Iraqiya_
(http://english.aljazeera.net/focus/iraqelection2010/2010/03/2010329495420860.html)
block to win the elections. Even once
militant groups which refused to disarm until the occupation ended, have now
opted to join various groups and alliances in hope that the political promise
will compliment what they feel had been achieved on the battle ground.
Voting spectacle
This election is also expected to see a significant percentage of Iraqis
voting along non-sectarian lines for the first time since the fall of the
former regime, with a number of credible polls suggesting that secular Allawi’
s Iraqiya might come on top.
However, these same polls indicate that neither Iraqiya nor the three
other major groups -_ Nouri al-Maliki's State of Law coalition_
(http://english.aljazeera.net/focus/iraqelection2010/2010/03/201033121246293407.html)
, the
Iraqi National Alliance led by Ammar Al-Hakim, the Kurdish Alliance – are
likely to win an outright majority.
The spectacle of the Iraq elections then becomes not in the campaigning
and voting stage, but in the political wrangling which will likely arise once
the results are announces.
In a best case scenario, a government will be formed two to three months
after the elections; a worst case estimate says that Iraq could be without a
fully functioning government for up to six months.
The office of the prime minister will be up for grabs, with heated
discussions already taking place and several figures staking their claim to
being
the worthy contenders for the post.
Some have already made the pilgrimage to Washington to improve their
chances of leading the next government, while others have considered Tehran a
more reliable destination if their ambition of becoming Prime Minister is to
be realised. A few have travelled in both directions, just in case.
Shia split?
Allawi seems to be ahead in that race too, not only because his block is
likely to win the most popular votes, but because of the deep cracks
surfacing between former Shia political allies.
With Maliki fighting for a comeback and a second term, there are several
candidates from the Shia political alliances with almost equal hopes vying
for the post.
Adel Abdel Mahdi, one of the two current vice-presidents, has made
semi-public protestations that he has been waiting in the shadows long enough
and
it is now his turn.
Ahmed Chalabi, the head of the Iraqi National Congress, has becoming
increasingly restless at having failed to capitalise on the ‘favours’ he
personally delivered to the Americans and their plans to invade and occupy
Iraq.
Bayan Solagh, a former interior minister, also believes he is the man for
the job, but he is unlikely to overcome public perceptions that during his
tenure, he presided over the worst period of sectarian violence the country
had seen.
There are some who even claim, that he allowed the ethnic cleansing and
mass-murder of tens of thousands of Sunnis in Baghdad.
In the meantime, Ibrahim al-Jaafari, who served as Maliki’s predecessor
until Shia political pressures forced him to begrudgingly step down in 2006,
wants his old job back.
The Shia alliances are in a crisis; they can no longer afford to appear
disunited or allow further splits after Maliki left the UIA and formed his
State of Law coalition.
This again works to Allawi's favour; he is from a revered Shia family and
it could be seen that his tenure as prime minister may re-galvanise Shia
politics.
Who's the president?
There will likely also be another looming battle for the office of the
presidency.
Although largely ceremonial, the position is powerfully symbolic and in
Iraq’s continuing politically unstable condition, could carry far more weight
and influence than designed by the constitution.
_Jalal Talabani_
(http://english.aljazeera.net/focus/iraqelection2010/2010/03/201032115546873162.html)
, the head of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan,
has voiced his desire to step down from the presidency after the
elections, but he nonetheless expects to be urged to hold on to the post.
Tareq al-Hashemi, the Sunni vice-president may not play ball this time.
Given his recent media-savvy press conferences, political gravitas, and no
secret that he seeks the position, Hashemi could pose a serious challenged to
the ailing Kurdish leader.
This will be bad news not only for the _Massoud Barzani_
(http://english.aljazeera.net/focus/iraqelection2010/2010/02/2010228850791212.html)
, the
Kurdish Regional Government president and long-term arch rival, but also for
US
strategists who would rather not see the relatively calm north engulfed
in internal political strife again. In the 1990s, rival Kurdish factions
fought a bitter war for control of the semi-autonomous region until US
mediators stepped in and averted a civil war in the years preceding the 2003
invasion.
Vacuum of authority
Given that there are numerous key government posts, including the
much-vaunted position of speaker of the national assembly, up for grabs,
Iraqis
should not expect a smooth transfer of power.
There is likely to be a vacuum of authority while the political wheeling
and dealing, and behind-the-scene negotiations take place.
This is the phase when the whole political map is likely to be re-drawn
and new alliances formed; smaller blocs, including the Iraqi Islamic Party’s
Al-Tawafuq could emerge as king-makers and deal-brokers. It is during this
time that Iraq will also see an increase in violent attacks designed to
intimidate and influence negotiations.
Of course, there are also the internal struggles for prominent slices of
the political cake within each block. Allawi’s alliance in particular
promises such a spectacle.
With numerous prominent figures - Allawi, Hashemi, Dhafir al-Ani and
Saleh al-Mutlaq - all likely to claim credit for the potential gains, it is
hard to see how the battle for the main posts will easily be settled,
particularly with only a few of those potentially on offer.
Suddenly, some within Iraqiya see the blessing in disguise hidden behind
the _controversial and much protested judicial decision to ban Mutlaq and
Ani_
(http://english.aljazeera.net/focus/iraqelection2010/2010/02/20102149181086396.html)
from running in the election allegedly because of their
Baathist past.
Some of Mutlaq’s supporters have even suggested that the whole episode was
orchestrated with a nod from Allawi himself, a suggestion refuted by the
two men.
End of sectarianism? Voting trends seem to indicate that Iraqis will
move away from sectarian politics [REUTERS]
The March 7 elections could pronounce the end of the sectarian conflict.
The Marjiya – the Shia religious authority – led by Grand Ayatollah
Sayyed Ali Al-Sistani who served as the main deal-broker in previous
elections,
recently declared that it will not voice support for any political party
nor will it get involved in the political process.
Some in Iraq have speculated that this could signal irreparable divisions
within the Shia political community.
Iran, a stalwart provider of financial, logistical, and moral support for
Iraq’s Shia blocs, has enough of its own internal and external problems to
contend; Tehran is no longer as strong as it was in Iraq as recently as
2006.
Some even point to a recent rise in Iraqi nationalism which transcended
sectarian divides, and has taken strong opposition to Iran for meddling in
Iraq.
The US, still believed to wield the ultimate veto power in Iraq, has
seemingly shifted sides.
The Bush administration had made support of the allegedly beleaguered and
oppressed majority Shia population the centrepiece of its strategy to "win
Iraqi hearts and minds".
But that came at too great a cost to US long-term strategic planning.
The Obama administration appears to care very little who emerges
victorious in the March 7 elections as long as the plans for its withdrawal in
2011
go undisturbed.
Iraqis determined
However, it the most likely significant change to emerge from the
elections is the transformation of the overall mood and outlook of the Iraqi
people
themselves.
Walk the streets of Baghdad, Basra and Mosul and you get a strange sense
of determination despite scant public confidence in the political hierarchy
or the system that was gradually but almost forcefully imposed upon them
since 2003.
The determination lies in the realisation that few nations throughout the
world could have survived the trials and tribulations of the past seven
years intact; yet the Iraqis, through providence or an indomitable
stubbornness, have done just that.
In fact they have lived through nearly four decades of such difficulties
even prior to the US-led invasion in 2003. The miserable conditions they
have endured continue to persist, but what has changed is that whatever faith
was placed in the new rulers or their agents in Iraq has now shifted
inward.
There are signs of the re-emergence of that distinguished national spirit
which many suspected had become irreparable when Iraq appeared on the verge
of civil war in 2006.
The overall voter turnout this weekend might even exceed the expected
average of 55-58 per cent.
Most will confess that they vote not in hope that the newly elected will
bring about a transformation of fortunes, but rather in resignation that
this is yet another tired process they have to endure in their struggle to
regain their self-worth, dignity and freedom.
Anas Altikriti is the CEO of the Cordoba Foundation, a London-based
think-tank involved in building bridges and improving understanding between
the
West and the Muslim world, through research, training and conflict
resolution.
The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not
necessarily reflect Al Jazeera's editorial policy
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