----- Original Message -----
From: Sam Morris
To: CF-Community
Sent: Wednesday, August 11, 2004 5:43 PM
Subject: Economist: Forget Polls; Bush Easily Wins
http://www.editorandpublisher.com/eandp/news/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1000610745
Economist: Forget Polls; Bush Easily Wins
By E&P Staff
Published: August 11, 2004
NEW YORK For all you pundits and political reporters
out there who think the Iraq war will have a major
influence on the fall election, or who think the
Bush-Kerry race is a toss-up, Yale University
economist Ray C. Fair has a message for you: forget
both. Iraq won't matter and Bush will win in a
landslide.
In an interview to be published in next Sunday's "New
York Times Magazine," Fair told Deborah Solomon, "My
latest prediction shows that Bush will receive 57.5%
of the two-party votes ... the chances that Bush loses
are very small."
Fair, who claims to be a Kerry supporter, is described
by the Times in the Aug. 15 issue as being known for
creating an econometric equation that "has predicted
presidential elections with relative accuracy." His
most recent book, in fact, is titled, "Predicting
Presidential Elections and Other Things."
How does he explain media expectations of a close
race? Polls are "notoriously flaky this far ahead of
the election," he said, while his model has allegedly
proven accurate to within 2.5%.
Economic growth and inflation are really the only
things that matter in a presidential race, he argues,
with the current war and social issues such as gay
marriage having negligible impact.
Asked if his prediction will boost Bush's prospects,
Fair replied, "If Kerry supporters see that I have
made this big prediction for Bush, more of them could
turn out just to prove an economist wrong."
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