ALARMING TREND: The findings, which experts have dubbed the `Mauna Loa
effect,' are stoking fears of a `runaway greenhouse effect'
THE GUARDIAN , LONDON
Tuesday, Oct 12, 2004,Page 7
An unexplained and unprecedented rise in carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere two years running has raised fears that the world may be on
the brink of runaway global warming.
Scientists are baffled why the quantity of the main greenhouse gas has
leapt in a two-year period and are concerned that the Earth's natural
systems are no longer able to absorb as much as in the past.
The findings will be discussed tomorrow by the government's chief
scientist, David King, at the annual Greenpeace business lecture.
Measurements of CO2 in the atmosphere have been continuous for almost
50 years at Mauna Loa Observatory, 3,658m up a mountain in Hawaii,
regarded as far enough away from any carbon dioxide source to be a
reliable measuring point.
In recent decades CO2 increased on average by 1.5 parts per million
(ppm) a year because of the amount of oil, coal and gas burnt, but has
now jumped to more than 2 ppm in 2002 and last year.
Above or below average rises in CO2 levels in the atmosphere have been
explained in the past by natural events.
When the Pacific warms up during El Nino -- a disruptive weather
pattern caused by weakening trade winds -- the amount of carbon
dioxide rises dramatically because warm oceans emit CO2 rather than
absorb it.
But scientists are puzzled because over the past two years, when the
increases have been 2.08 ppm and 2.54 ppm respectively, there has been
no El Nino.
Charles Keeling, the man who began the observations in 1958 as a young
climate scientist, is now 74 and still working in the field.
He said yesterday: "The rise in the annual rate to above two parts per
million for two consecutive years is a real phenomenon."
"It is possible that this is merely a reflection of natural events
like previous peaks in the rate, but it is also possible that it is
the beginning of a natural process unprecedented in the record," he
said.
Analysts stress that it is too early to draw any long-term conclusions.
But the fear held by some scientists is that the greater than normal
rises in C02 emissions mean that instead of decades to bring global
warming under control we may have only a few years. At worst, the
figures could be the first sign of the breakdown in the Earth's
natural systems for absorbing the gas. That would herald the so-called
"runaway greenhouse effect," where the planet's soaring temperature
becomes impossible to contain.
Tom Burke, visiting professor at Imperial College London, and a former
special adviser to the former Tory environment minister John Gummer,
warned: "We're watching the clock and the clock is beginning to tick
faster, like it seems to before a bomb goes off."
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