Thank you all for all the input. The different perspectives helped. 

My degree is actually in International Relations, so I never ventured any 
further than necessary into math. This project is well beyond my ability but it 
is my own idea so I don't have to worry about delievery time etc...  I will 
probably build it to the best of my limited ability then hire someone to 
rebuild it if it looks like it can be profitable.   

For now I think the straight probablity solution is what I really need. 
(thankfully it is also the simplest solution)  I might have been putting to 
much thought into it.  As I make progress I'll keep you up to date and will try 
to get it online for your input.

Happy Holidays!

Ken 

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