> Sam wrote:
> Well I guess I missed that post.
> From what I read of Gruss' post he claims there are no jobs because
> they're going overseas and the dollar is collapsing so buy Euros or
> Renminbi. The economy has failed and it's all Bush's fault.
> 

JOBS
Many jobs are going overseas, that's a no-brainer.  Especially things
like coding because in many ways it's a commodity and, as Tom Friedman
says, the world is flat.  That doesn't mean there won't be new jobs,
but you'll have to be clever and adapt to find them.  For example, my
father-in-law is a machinist and raised his family very well with his
wage, but he couldn't today.  So he's taken to traveling about the
country snapping up the few high wage gigs left until he retires.


DOLLAR
The dollar is under enormous pressure to devalue due to our massive
foreign debt.  In a nutshell, China is selling us cheap goods and then
using the profits to buy American dollars which keeps US interest
rates down.  If China depegs or stops buying dollars things are going
to get expensive fast.  Oddly, the Koreans stand to lose a big chuck
of change when that happens since thousands (millions?) of Americans
will default on their mortgages and it's the Koreans that've been
buying them up.  American mortgages are a fashionable investment in
Korea.

Personally I got out of Euros almost a year ago and made a nice
profit.  I'm now all-in on the Yuan which is risky.  But I'm still in
European stocks.

European Markets Continue Their Strong Run
July 1, 2005; Page C11
Three cheers for Europe.
http://online.wsj.com/article/0,,SB112015913696674389,00.html?mod=todays_us_stock_market_quarterly_review


BUSH'S FAULT
Mr. Bush is responsible for fiscal policy and lots of bad things have
happened that wouldn't have if his policy was different.  For example,
THE DEBT!  Then there's Mr. Bush's abysmal foreign policy and before
you wave off the Pew survey, actually come up with examples of bias in
it that you feel altered the results.  It's like saying you don't
believe in gravity because Newton was liberal.

There are 2 throttles to the economy: fiscal policy and monetary
policy, and Mr. Bush has his hand on one of them.  I do not subscribe
to the "the economy just happens" theory.


THE ECONOMY
While the economy is stronger than I'd expect, I still think there's a
great danger of it heading south and I'm not the only one:

Investors Plan for Slower Economy
July 1, 2005 10:19 p.m.
As Wall Street buckles up for the second half of 2005, analysts are
warning investors to get ready for a curve in the road ahead.  The
U.S. economy is slowing down, they say.
http://online.wsj.com/article/0,,SB112021623302275358,00.html?mod=mkts%5Fmain%5Ftodays%5Fmkts%5Ftac

Economists See Modest Growth and Many Worries
July 1, 2005; Page A1
NEW YORK -- The economy is nearing its fifth year of expansion on a
firm footing, yet a long list of worries still nags at economists.
http://online.wsj.com/article/0,,SB112014118051374092,00.html?mod=todays_us_page_one

You can't just look at one quarter and say, "what's the problem?" you
have to look at the balance sheet.  Take my cousin, for example.  He
makes great money, but he spends every penny and then more.  His
neighbors probably think he's doing great, but look at his balance
sheet: if he loses his job, or anything happens, he's in DEEP trouble.
 And that's my complaint with Mr. Bush's fiscal policy.

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