GLOBAL VIEW By BRET STEPHENS Condi's Gambit: Hope for the Worst August 8, 2006; Page A11 WALL STREET JOURNAL (abridged by Gruss)
Israel has manifestly failed to destroy Hezbollah as a fighting force or humiliate it as a political one (all the while squandering its credibility by boasting to the contrary). Yet an Israeli military victory remains the best and likeliest way for the U.S. to achieve its basic strategic objectives in the conflict. But what if Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah accepts and abides (at least for a while) by the [UN] resolution? The chance may seem remote, given Hezbollah's apparent rejection of the resolution, but the dangers are potent. Consider the choice now before Mr. Nasrallah: As a matter of propaganda, he might prefer to keep the war going. He has been riding a wave of Muslim support that shows no signs of cresting. He is the symbolic leader of the Muslim world, bridging the gap between Sunnis and Shiites, secular nationalists and Muslim fundamentalists -- a latter-day Yasser Arafat in the garb of an ayatollah. As a matter of strategy, however, Mr. Nasrallah would do well to exercise restraint. Politically, his stock can go no higher; if the war really ends tomorrow, he will emerge not only as the clear victor against Israel but as the de facto master of Lebanon. In the meantime, Israel would lose the military and political initiative, demobilize its reserves and begin to withdraw its forces. As for the U.S. and Israel, they are now in the unenviable position of hoping [Nasrallah] says "No" and that their own resolution fails. They might spare a thought for the worst of all scenarios -- the one where Hassan Nasrallah says "Yes." ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~| Introducing the Fusion Authority Quarterly Update. 80 pages of hard-hitting, up-to-date ColdFusion information by your peers, delivered to your door four times a year. http://www.fusionauthority.com/quarterly Archive: http://www.houseoffusion.com/groups/CF-Community/message.cfm/messageid:212805 Subscription: http://www.houseoffusion.com/groups/CF-Community/subscribe.cfm Unsubscribe: http://www.houseoffusion.com/cf_lists/unsubscribe.cfm?user=11502.10531.5
