Republicans See Edge From Early Voting Democrats Question Specific Claims and Believe They Are Catching Up With the Trend By JOHN D. MCKINNON and ERIKA LOVLEY October 31, 2006; Page A4
WASHINGTON -- Down in the polls and with their majorities in Congress at risk, Republicans say they have some good news in early-voting statistics that suggest their voter-turnout machine is providing an edge in some tight races. If the trend holds, it could mean that early voting is growing -- and continuing to benefit Republicans, who exploited the practice in the 1990s. Experts say early voters could be a bigger factor this year when overall voter turnout could be lower than in 2004, a presidential-election year. This year, though, Democrats contend that Republicans are exaggerating their successes so far, by highlighting a few races, while ignoring problems they are having in motivating their troops around the country. Democrats also questioned several specific Republican claims, while noting their own early-voting numbers show they are starting to catch up with their rivals in early get-out-the-vote efforts in battleground states such as Iowa. Several of the examples Republicans cite are coming from states and congressional districts where they have some of their strongest local organizations. And despite the strength of the Republican turnout machine in the past few election cycles, it's yet to be seen whether Republicans can replicate isolated success stories across the electoral map in a tight election year. Early voting has grown in the past 15 years, from around 2% of the national electorate participating to about 20% in 2004, said R. Doug Lewis, executive director of the Election Center in Houston, a nonprofit group. Experts predict this year that 19% to 25% of the electorate will vote early at the polls or by mail-in absentee ballots. That compares with about 14% in 2002, the most recent midterm election. Republicans have had an advantage with early-voter turnout over Democrats because of better party funding and organization, according to Paul Gronke, director of the Early Voting Information Center at Reed College in Oregon, a state where traditional Election Day polling has been eliminated altogether in favor of voting by mail. "I suspect it will still be their advantage," he said. In congressional districts from Ohio and Florida to New Mexico and Arizona, Republicans report that their get-out-the-vote organization is gaining traction a week ahead of Election Day. The aim of the effort generally is to maximize turnout among their most loyal and reliable voters. If successful, it could help them to hold down their losses in this election cycle and perhaps even retain their majorities in the House and Senate. In the fiercely contested New Mexico district held by Republican Heather Wilson, the party says that the number of absentee ballots already requested by Republicans has almost reached the number requested in 2004 -- nearly 22,000 so far this year, compared with almost 24,000 in 2004. The party says it is on a pace to exceed 2004. Meanwhile, in the bellwether Ohio district held by Republican Steve Chabot, about 60% of all early votes are coming from the roughly 40% of the electorate that the party has targeted for early voting. That's the highest rate in the country, according to an internal party memo, and good news -- "provided they vote the way we predict," the memo adds. In two Florida districts that are in doubt -- the 13th and 16th, previously held by Reps. Katherine Harris and Mark Foley, respectively -- Republicans are ahead in both absentee balloting and early voting. In previous election cycles, Democrats have enjoyed an advantage in early voting, party operatives say. And in the Georgia congressional district now held by Democrat Jim Marshall, "nearly twice as many of our supporters are voting as they should be, based on population," according to the internal memo. President Bush will visit the district today to stump for the Republican challenger, former congressman Mac Collins. Republicans hope to unseat Democrats in two districts in Georgia as a way of offsetting losses expected in districts across the Midwest and in the Northeast. Democrats questioned the Republicans' claims, particularly regarding New Mexico's 1st District. They said Democrats are almost even with Republicans in the number of absentee ballots cast so far in the area, suggesting that the incumbent party is struggling even in a district where its volunteer organization is regarded as one of the best in the country. They also pointed out that Ms. Wilson's real worries lie not with Republicans but with Democrats and independents, who appear to be backing her opponent more strongly than in the past. "It's a bunch of spin," said Democratic National Committee spokeswoman Stacie Paxton. "I don't think their numbers add up." She said in the battleground state of Iowa, for example, Democrats have returned more absentee ballots than Republicans, and their rate of return is higher too. To encourage early voting, the parties typically mail out applications for absentee ballots to their targeted voters. Fueling the trend toward early voting, 30 states now allow unrestricted absentee voting, with 15 allowing early voting in person at county-clerk offices and polling areas. The process isn't free of glitches, though. Some elections experts criticize the widespread use of absentee ballots because of the potential for fraud. And early voting has had at least a few glitches because of mechanical problems. In Maryland, where voting-machine glitches were reported during primary balloting earlier this year, requests for absentee ballots for Nov. 7 have more than doubled from the number during the state's most recent gubernatorial election in 2002. As of yesterday, 161,094 Maryland voters had requested absentee ballots, according to Donna Duncan, director of election management for the Maryland Board of Elections. Roughly 78,000 were from Democrats and 68,000 from Republicans. Some analysts have predicted that the growth of early voting -- much of it encouraged by Republicans -- would backfire on the party this year. Analysts figured that many of those early voters would be affected by the run of bad news the party suffered in September and early October, including violence in Iraq and the congressional-page scandal involving Rep. Foley. But Republican National Committee political director Mike DuHaime said that concern is likely exaggerated, because the party is focused on turning out a relatively reliable core of supporters. "We try to drive people who we feel with a high degree of confidence are going to vote Republican, and leave it to the candidates" to persuade independents and swing voters, he said. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~| Introducing the Fusion Authority Quarterly Update. 80 pages of hard-hitting, up-to-date ColdFusion information by your peers, delivered to your door four times a year. http://www.fusionauthority.com/quarterly Archive: http://www.houseoffusion.com/groups/CF-Community/message.cfm/messageid:218871 Subscription: http://www.houseoffusion.com/groups/CF-Community/subscribe.cfm Unsubscribe: http://www.houseoffusion.com/cf_lists/unsubscribe.cfm?user=89.70.5
