> RoMunn wrote: > so to suggest that > they increased revenues in Iraq by $16B over the last four years flies in > the face of publicly available facts. >
But let's assume that those facts ARE right. The problem with statistics is not that they're wrong, it's that they're only right in the right hands. That is, you need to understand what you're looking at and 99% of people don't. In this case it's a classic example of correlation-does-not-equal-causation. Every Stats101 class will teach you this (some call it "nonspuriousness") The classic example is the study done that shows a well correlated relationship between violent crime and ice cream consumption; as ice cream consumption rose, so did violent crime. Does that mean ice cream *causes* violent crime? NO. Just that there's a correlation. What was the true reason for that correlation? Warm weather. ------------------------------------------ Advanced Course ------------------------------------------ For those of you curious about more, there is *usually* (some say always) something interesting in correlated data. Here's another classic example: PROBLEM: The Jefferson Memorial is decaying at way too high a rate. Why? REASON: Cleaning staff uses highly corrosive cleaning agent. ACTION: Fire the vendor, hire a new one, change the agents. RESULT: Jefferson Memorial isn't clean. REASON: Thought to be new vendor. ACTION: Cycle through vendors for 2 years. PROBLEM: Jefferson Memorial STILL isn't clean. BETTER REASON: Pigeon poop which can't be cleaned with low corrosive agents. ACTION: Kill the pigeons. RESULT: Public outcry. PROBLEM: Too many pigeons pooping on Jefferson Memorial. REASON: Pigeons like to eat spiders (who knew?). ACTION: Kill the spiders. RESULT: Jefferson Memorial not avail to public due to toxins. PROBLEM: Too many spiders, attracting pigeons who poop. REASON: Spiders like to eat gnats. ACTION: Kill the gnats. RESULT: Jefferson Memorial not avail to public due to toxins. PROBLEM: Too many gnats, attracting spiders, attracting pigeons who poop. REASON: Gnats like lights at dusk. ACTION: Don't turn on the lights until after dark. RESULT: drastic drop in gnats, spiders, pigeons, and poop. Jefferson Memorial clean. SUMMARY COST: * Changing the lights on the timers: +$ due to electricity savings. * Getting to the point of changing the timers: millions. LESSON: Correlation does not equal causation! Problem: Jefferson Memorial ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~| Upgrade to Adobe ColdFusion MX7 Experience Flex 2 & MX7 integration & create powerful cross-platform RIAs http:http://ad.doubleclick.net/clk;56760587;14748456;a?http://www.adobe.com/products/coldfusion/flex2/?sdid=LVNU Archive: http://www.houseoffusion.com/groups/CF-Community/message.cfm/messageid:225791 Subscription: http://www.houseoffusion.com/groups/CF-Community/subscribe.cfm Unsubscribe: http://www.houseoffusion.com/cf_lists/unsubscribe.cfm?user=89.70.5
