http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&refer=columnist_shlaes&sid=a2FRdPEitRa0
A Tax Increase That Even Republicans Might Love: Amity Shlaes

By Amity Shlaes

Jan. 26 (Bloomberg) -- You know something is up when the Republicans
and Democrats trade positions.

That's what is happening this season when it comes to a certain
proposal to increase taxes on business and the rich. Democrats, the
party of economic redistribution, detest the proposal -- Charles
Rangel, the new Democratic chairman of the House Ways and Means
Committee, labels it ``dangerous.''

As for the Republicans, those old anti-tax warriors, they are going
around moaning about how tragic it is that President Bush lacked the
guts to put through this particular increase two years ago, when he
had the votes to do so.

So what is the mystery tax? It is a levy on employer- provided health
benefits that cost more than $15,000, a proposal included in Bush's
State of the Union address.

Under the plan, employers would lose the ability to deduct the cost of
the health-insurance policies they buy for workers. What's more, that
cost would be counted as income on the worker's return. The anti-tax
team accepts this because of what it brings with it: a standard
deduction of $15,000 for every household. This means an effective tax
cut for many families because their annual premiums add up to less
than $15,000.

But the big change here isn't in the pennies and dimes. It is in the
way the plan lodges responsibility for a family's health budget with
the family, instead of employers. This isn't merely a tax shift but
also a cultural shift, Republicans say. It would make Americans feel
stronger and more economically secure.

Long Overdue

And they are right. In fact, the move is long overdue. The old system
of employers providing health care is as much a result of historical
accident as of coherent policy. Back in the 1930s, Congress and
President Franklin Roosevelt created Social Security over corporate
protests. A national system of payment for health care seemed next.
(In 1945 Harry Truman would go around talking about ``the right to
adequate medical care.'')

Terrified employer raced to preempt FDR and Truman by proving they
could handle health themselves. They contracted with Blue Cross and
Blue Shield to provide benefits for employee pools. The tax treatment
came last -- in fact no one knew for a while whether companies really
could claim the insurance deduction.

But World War II made the new arrangement seem doubly logical.
Congress imposed an ``excess'' profits tax of as much as 90 percent
and froze wages. Paying for health insurance was a way to reduce tax
bills and keep workers, who were suddenly scarce. Unions were pleased.
By 1945, 32 million Americans were in health-insurance programs, many
sponsored by companies, up from 12 million to 13 million just five
years before.

Organization Man

Though such fringe benefits quickly came to feel as American as a Ford
in the driveway, the arrangement affected our culture in ways that
were not all positive. It helped give rise to the Organization Man of
the 1950s, a fellow dependent on his employer to the point of
caricature. Corporate health plans also smothered incentives to
economize. Having three parties responsible for health-cost decisions
meant that no one was. Needless to say, innovations from
magnetic-resonance imaging devices to the heart stent -- you name it
-- only expanded spending.

Fast forward to today and the accidental health insurance exclusion
has morphed into a giant revenue drain. In 2007, the federal
government will forgo about $150 billion in tax revenue by way of this
break. That figure is higher than the cost of either of two other such
deductions, one for home-mortgage interest and the one for state and
local taxes. It is something like paying for the Iraq war each year.

Easing the Fear

But what about now? Rangel argues that society is shifting too much
risk on the individual. Those of us who have known the sickening fear
of losing a job and its health insurance tend to side with the Ways
and Means chairman.

The change proposed might actually lessen that fear. Under this plan,
your health deduction stays with you, even if the boss decides to live
up to your nightmares and fire you. You don't have to persuade a new
insurance company to pay for your daughter's preexisting condition
because you can stay with your old insurance.

This independence allows employees to make an honest assessment of
whether a job is really worth keeping. You will always be free of
Cobra, the government program that allows you to keep your old
company's insurance -- but just for a while, and only under certain
conditions.

The system ought to please middle- and lower-wage earners, since the
deduction will reduce the base wage upon which both their income tax
and social security are levied.

``This is a real first,'' says Michael Tanner, director of health and
welfare studies at the Cato Institute. ``Never before have deductions
applied to Social Security taxes, still the highest tax for 80 percent
of taxpayers.''

Worth Considering

This should be a big change for those at jobs that offer no insurance.
Higher earners likewise may find the break worth having, especially if
legislators could write the law so that the standard deduction is safe
from the alternative minimum tax.

But if the Democratic leadership is already rejecting the Bush idea,
is it still worth thinking about? The answer is yes. Parties come up
with some of their best ideas when they are down -- ideas that tend to
become law five or 10 years later.

Several other Bush proposals have been fakes -- programs that called
themselves free market but actually extend the role of government,
such as the Medicare Part D prescription-drug plan.

The standard-deduction plan, by contrast, truly is free market and
anti-Washington. Though it may have come at the wrong time, this
increase is one all can endorse -- even the tax warriors.

(Amity Shlaes, a visiting senior fellow at the Council on Foreign
Relations, is a Bloomberg News columnist. The views expressed here are
her own.)

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