"An Iranian expert in international relations, Mahmood Sariolghalam,
agreed that Iran's conventional military has exaggerated its
capabilities. But he also urged Arab defense leaders and others to
engage Iran diplomatically to influence its insular military and
defuse tensions.

"Maintaining your distance from Iran will only foster the current
inertia in the security apparatus. Iran's policies can be changed
through engagement," said Sariolghalam, of the National University of
Iran.

Both Sariolghalam and Cordesman warned that the bombastic speeches by
Ahmadinejad — who has called for Israel's destruction — amounted to
posturing and were not backed by credible threats.

Cordesman also contended that tensions in the Gulf were being worsened
by U.S. and Israeli leaders overstating the Iranian threat.

Though the U.S. has said it hopes to resolve its issues with Iran
diplomatically, it has not ruled out a military assault on Iran.

But Cordesman noted that no possible set of targets had been
definitively identified as possible nuclear weapons installations. He
also warned that an invasion of Iran would probably trigger a
nationalist defense of the country and "turn into a bloody and
pointless war of attrition."

"You do not need to consider a military response at this point. You're
better off waiting until targets are visible and there's less
political controversy," Cordesman said."

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