> -----Original Message----- > From: Robert Munn [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] > Sent: Saturday, April 05, 2008 1:18 AM > To: CF-Community > Subject: Re: global warming? how about global cooling > > On Fri, Apr 4, 2008 at 9:56 PM, Jim D wrote: > > > And what reasons do you have to trust the Hadley Center more than > NASA? > > Note that you didn't say "there's conflicting evidence" - you stated > the > > Hadley Center's figures (those figures that support your view) as > fact. > > None. Call it 2005 or 1998, it doesn't matter.
But which is it? You made a direct argument that the last decade was cooler and so the entire concept of a warming trend was bunk. Is there a warming trend or not? I'm saying "yes there is" - Global Warming is real. No value judgment, no speculation on causation: I'm just saying we're in a warming trend. Is that fair? > > That article is clear: the trend is upwards. Despite anomalies the > trend > > is > > upward. Warming is a fact. Granted the trend may end tomorrow or > next > > year > > or continue for millennia... but our current evidence that it will > > continue. > > But that's exactly the point. That our current evidence says it will continue? > > The fossil record gives us good information for much of Earth's > history - > > as > > you note there is much evidence that the Earth has had warming > periods... > > although you accept that science unquestioningly. The exact same > > methodologies (often the exact same scientists) resulted in the > evidence > > that you rejected when it doesn't match your opinion. > > > > I'm not cherry picking. I acknowledged that 1998 (or 2005 as you quote > from > NASA) was the warmest year humans have recorded. What I dispute is the > leap > of faith from evidence of a short term warming trend to the conclusion > that > humans caused it. And you accept a MUCH shorter term to claim that the warming trend has ended (look at the subject line)... that's a textbook example of cherry picking to me. It's far from a leap of faith - again the evidence is there. You can definitely debate the extent of man-made change. You might also argue that man has done nothing that mother nature hasn't matched. For example has mankind's impact on the environment matched that of, say, a super-volcano eruption? But the question isn't "have we had an effect" - it's how much of an effect. It's clear that we've had an effect. Perhaps our actions are, at worst, just slightly accelerating an inevitable change. Saying that natural causes have caused warming in the past does not mean that the current trend HAS to be natural causes - it's a false assumption. Natural causes are surely suspect (and many have been and are being examined) but it's also insane to eliminate any data - like our impact as a species. Do our actions instigate or aggravate climate change? If the latter how much? It's ridiculous to say we have no effect at all, so were > > When there's not actual evidence to support the claims you rely on ad > > hominem: the scientists are personally motivated, there's ambiguous > > financial reasons involved, there's a concerted effort to hide the > "truth" > > - > > they're all hacks and liars. > > > > I don't think scientists in general are personally motivated, or hacks > and > liars. Are politicians and film producers like Al Gore and Michael > Moore? > (Or Mel Gibson, for that matter...,not that he's involved in the > climate > debate, but he's such a loon I couldn't resist.) I'd agree with that. Honestly I'm consistently shocked that climate change has become an environmental issue to begin with. I would have logically expected industry to be more concerned about it since any impact will affect it more than just about anything else. But you're right: anybody that says all we have to do is ride our bikes and stop buying SUVs is an idiot. Anybody that says that New York will be under water in 20 years is, at best, an alarmist. I don't agree with Al Gore about a lot of what he says... but for what it's worth I do think he's sincere. I don't remember Michael Moore ever taking on the issue... he really lost me after "Bowling..." > > I'll happily agree that some people (and generally not the scientists > > producing the evidence) are creating (or attempting to create) an > > unwarranted hysteria concerning climate change. But you're using > that > > information to end discussion on the topic, that I can't agree with. > > I'm not trying to end discussion on the topic. I like the discussion. I > will > happily acknowledge real evidence that humans are responsible for > global > warming. Call me very, very skeptical of that conclusion with the > available > facts. I'd just like to move away from the extreme nature of the statements. Are humans "responsible" for global warming? Almost definitely not, at least not alone. Are they contributing to it? Almost definitely yes. It's the amount and means of that contribution that's most in debate. It's pretty clear that one recipe for warming is massive releases of carbon into the atmosphere. A contributing ingredient is the destruction of carbon sequestration mechanisms. We're weakening traditional carbon sequestration mechanisms AND releasing carbon... again, our total contribution could very well be minimal... but we KNOW that's what we're doing isn't a "good thing" (at least if we want the climate to stay as it is). And, as I've said before, there are benefits to dealing with the perceived man-made causes of warming. Reducing fossil-fuel emissions means cleaner air and water, less smog and cleaner cities. It could mean less reliance on foreign resources. It very well might mean healthier children. More esoterically it could mean more diversification in the energy sector - "new blood" in an industry rife with corruption and scandal. I still think that education should be our biggest priority (specifically, in this modern world, critical thinking and science education) but energy independence is right up there as well. Jim Davis ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~| Adobe® ColdFusion® 8 software 8 is the most important and dramatic release to date Get the Free Trial http://ad.doubleclick.net/clk;192386516;25150098;k Archive: http://www.houseoffusion.com/groups/CF-Community/message.cfm/messageid:258061 Subscription: http://www.houseoffusion.com/groups/CF-Community/subscribe.cfm Unsubscribe: http://www.houseoffusion.com/cf_lists/unsubscribe.cfm?user=11502.10531.5
