Great tits enjoying the warmer weather – so far
19:00 08 May 2008
NewScientist.com news service
Mason Inman

As climate change forces animals to shift their breeding schedules,
one group of British birds has been able to quickly adapt to the
warmer weather without having to rely on slower evolution.

There are limits to their flexibility however, and when those limits
are reached, global warming could hit the population hard, researchers
say.

Since 1961, ecologists have been tracking the population of great tits
that breed in Wytham Woods, near Oxford, UK. "It's only in the past 30
to 35 years that you see this increase in temperature in early spring
to which the birds have responded," says study leader Ben Sheldon of
the University of Oxford.

The birds now lay their eggs 2 weeks earlier than they did in the
1970s, tracking a 2-week shift in the emergence of their favoured food
– the caterpillars of the winter moth.

Like many insects, the caterpillars' development is triggered by
temperature. "The birds are timing their breeding to match the
abundance of food," Sheldon says.
Plastic limit

The birds have shifted their breeding times through an in-born
flexibility, or plasticity, which means they can maximise the chances
of their chicks' survival.

One sign that plasticity is behind the shift, rather than evolution,
is that the birds seem to respond to a warmer spring by laying their
eggs earlier in the same year.

You would get a lag with evolution, because it takes a generation or
more to have an effect, Sheldon says. "It wouldn't manage to keep
track so closely."

The British birds have done well, with their population growing. But
as temperatures continue to rise, if the birds reach a limit of how
far they can plastically adjust, natural selection could kill off many
of the birds, Sheldon says.

That's what has happened in the Netherlands – with warmer
temperatures, natural selection has taken its toll on a population of
great tits there, says Marcel Visser of the Netherlands Institute of
Ecology in Heteren.
Breeding rule

It's striking that the Oxford birds have enough plasticity to adapt to
climate change, Visser says. The difference might be because, around
Oxford, both the early spring and late spring have warmed up, while in
the Netherlands the early spring has not warmed much.

So it looks like all the birds are following a rule – "breed earlier
in warm years" – that doesn't work well in the Netherlands, Visser
says. "It's kind of a coincidence that the rule the Oxford birds use
happens to work," he adds.

The great tits in the UK may be an exception, Visser says. More
generally, animals seem to be following out-of-date rules. "It's a
very general pattern that many animals use rules that are no longer
optimal because of climate change," he says.

Journal reference: Science (DOI: 10.1126/science.1157174);

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