> Mo wrote:
>
> I stand by my earlier statement then.  I disagree.
>

Taking nothing away from the wager I'll say this:

We're both right.

Wells and all the other big banks are tied together in a few ways:

(1.) Via swaps

(2.) Via mutually owned assets; i.e., "the market"

(3.) Via regulation.

So let's use-case it out:

Let's say you're right and Wells is all nice and solvent but Citi
isn't.  So the gov't takes receivership of Citi only.  What might
Wells shareholders and depositors think when they saw that?

Would it be:

(a.) Wells is fine, we needn't take our money out, nor sell our shares
because they say they're juuuuust fine.  And I believe them.  You
can't take that to the bank!

Or

(b.) HOLY SHIT!  The government is all over these big banks!  If they
grab Wells my investments or deposits could get wiped out!  Run the
bank!

See I think it's (b.)  And, call me stupid, buy I have enough faith in
the government to assume they do too.  And so if they need to grab
Citi, they'll be smart enough to grab all of them to prevent a market
meltdown.

But ... if assets prices magically recover and NO takeovers of the
majors are needed then Wells might be fine.

So we're both right.

But while we wait, check this out:
---------

On February 27, 2009, Chicago-based MB Financial Bank acquired insured
and uninsured deposits and loans from Heritage Community Bank in a
transaction facilitated by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
(FDIC). In these types of transactions, no advanced notice is given to
the public.

Please be assured that all your deposits - checking, savings,
Certificates of Deposit, business checking, Social Security direct
deposit and others -- are safe, remain readily accessible and that MB
is looking forward to serving all your banking needs. In fact, by
March 6, 2009, you will have free access to all ATMs in MB's network!
And that's just the start of our great new relationship.

All Heritage Community Bank branches will reopen as MB branches on
Saturday, February 28, 2009. You can expect the same great service and
attention to detail that you've grown to expect. To learn more about
MB, please go to www.mbfinancial.com.

In addition, the FDIC has useful information regarding your
relationship with Heritage Community Bank.

Please select the link below to read more:
http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/heritagebank.htm

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