is there a prize or something? I am flexible on the subject.... On Sun, Apr 5, 2009 at 12:19 PM, Scott Stroz <[email protected]> wrote: > > I want to know how many of you are going to use 'shit-tons' as part of your > conversations now :D > > On Sun, Apr 5, 2009 at 2:07 PM, Gruss Gott <[email protected]> wrote: > >> >> > RoMunn wrote: >> > >> > What do you think would happen if the sun provided the earth with 2% more >> or >> > less total radiation than it does today? The planet would be a furnace or >> a >> > ball of ice, and there is absolutely nothing we could do about it. >> > >> >> The thing I find surprising is that someone would be so bold as to try >> to predict something like this. >> >> The correct answer is Scotts: we don't know, we need to know more, if >> we're going to spend money on something it should be that, but it >> needs to be well throught through. >> >> Statistically, the question is are we in "common cause" temperature >> variation or "special cause" variation. The unfortunate part of this >> type of analysis is that you typically don't know you're in >> special-cause until things break. >> >> The financial crisis is a great example of this. Leverage and swaps >> were rising exponentially but the Bush administration amongst most >> others poo-pooed the idea that anything was wrong until the shit hit >> the fan. >> >> In this case we simply cannot afford to wait. >> >> Thus we need to begin extensive research immediately on the order of, >> say, $100 billion. >> >> If what Ian says is true, we have some pretty good evidence we're in >> special-cause which means the entire globe better start spending >> shit-tons of money. >> >> But let's confirm that. >> >> > >
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