http://www.dispatchpolitics.com/live/content/editorials/stories/2009/12/01/dyer01.ART_ART_12-01-09_A11_EUFRNC7.html?sid=101

"There are only four minarets in Switzerland: one for every hundred
thousand Muslims in the country. Swiss Muslims keep a low profile, so
as not to excite the numerous people in the country who hate and fear
them. But since those people are numerous, a political party can
prosper by demanding a referendum on whether further minarets should
be banned in Switzerland. With luck, that will provoke protests and
demonstrations by Muslims.

There is only one nuclear-power station under construction in Iran, at
Bushehr, and none that are operational. The fuel for the Bushehr
reactor will be supplied by Russia, under a contract that was signed
long ago. So when the Iranian government orders 10 new uranium
enrichment plants for reactors that have not even been designed yet,
you may safely assume that it is trying to provoke an attack on Iran.

Provocation is no longer a fashionable word, but the tactic it
describes has never been more popular. The 9/11 attacks on the United
States, for example, were meant to provoke the United States into
invading Afghanistan.

So let us consider the Swiss People's Party (SVP), which sponsored the
referendum on Nov. 28 that banned the construction of new minarets in
the country. The SVP has become the largest party in the Swiss
parliament by playing on fears that immigrants are taking over the
country. About 20 percent of the Swiss population are foreign, but
only 5 percent -- 400,000 people -- are Muslims.

Muslims have become the main target for the SVP's anti-immigrant
propaganda, because they inspire more fear than the others. During the
referendum, the SVP plastered on every flat surface in the country a
poster showing a Swiss flag covered with six black minarets (which
looked remarkably like missiles), with a black-clad Muslim woman
gazing on the scene. Religion, weapons, an oppressed woman who was
probably going to produce lots of Muslim babies -- it had it all.

The SVP won 29 percent of the votes in the last election in 2007,
which is embarrassing enough for the Swiss. In this referendum, it got
57 percent of the votes, so it has clearly found the right button to
press. Its ultimate goal, however, is to provoke Switzerland's Muslims
into protesting publicly against its policies. If they can be lured
into doing that, the backlash could give the SVP complete dominance in
the next election.

The next election is probably what is driving policy in Iran, too.
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the conservative clerical faction
with which he is allied lost most of their political credibility
during the rigged elections and the subsequent street protests last
spring. They have stabilized the situation by killing protesters and
torturing hundreds of others, but that is only a temporary solution.

The only thing that could rebuild popular support for the present
government is a foreign attack on Iran. That can only come from the
United States and/or Israel, and what would motivate them to do such a
thing? Well, we could announce that we are going to build 10 new
uranium enrichment plants.

Think about it. Why would Iran announce such a thing? Hitherto, it has
always kept what it is doing in the nuclear domain secret as long as
possible. Besides, it simply lacks the resources to build 10 uranium
enrichment plants at the same time, or even five.

The point of the provocation is to get the Americans and/or the
Israelis to attack Iran. The country is too big to invade, so the
attacks would just be air strikes. Whatever they destroyed could be
repaired after they stop -- and they would stop. Iran can shut the
Persian Gulf to all tanker traffic by using sea-skimming missiles, and
the world cannot do without Gulf oil for more than a few weeks.

If the U.S. or Israel attacks Iran, Ahmadinejad and the clerics will
be in power for another 10 years. That's worth putting up with a few
bombs for. The decision has been made in Tehran. Now Washington has to
decide if it is going to fall for the provocation.

Gwynne Dyer is a London-based independent journalist whose articles
are published in 45 countries."

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