On Fri, Feb 18, 2011 at 2:05 PM, Jerry Milo Johnson <[email protected]> wrote:
>
> You really don't think the assassination of the leader of a party 5 years
> ago has an impact on future elections, including this year's?
>
> (And the elder Hariri was by far not the only politician killed in that
> time, and the number who quit after specifically being threatened is well
> documented).

Of course it did. And the government also waged war on Hezbollah many
times and killed plenty of their leaders. I would agree that the
situation 6 years ago was almost certainly a flat out assassination
and that the current Hezbollah-backed government is doing everything
in it's power to prevent the commission from fully investigating it.
However, you have to also put this on the background of the fact that
there has been a long running civil war in Lebanon. Sometimes it has
had flare ups that have turned into active periods of war. Other times
it has gone several years at a time with lower level skirmishes.

There is a whole lot I don't know about Lebanon, but I can say with
relative certainty that the battles between Hezbollah and
anti-Hezbollah groups have been going on for a long time and you
cannot pin the current situation solely on Hezbollah and say that the
bombing 6 years ago is the only issue.

> I think any political party would love the advantage that Hezbollah has
> garnered over the past few years with its lack of hesitation to use
> violence. Not willing to use violence themselves, mind you, but the
> advantages are clear.

This is also a matter of how the various religious groups population
demographics break down. Sunni and Shiites and Christians are almost
equally split up, in thirds, and Suunis and Shiites each have major
governmental posts (like Prime Minister) that can only go to a member
of that sect. It is really, really complicated in Lebanon and I think
you are trying to simplify it way too much.

> I agree that Hezbollah is the current government of Lebanon. And as such,
> and being a terrorist organization, our policy for a change is amazingly
> clear and obvious.
>
> But I cannot say they are a legitimate government, no more than Egypt was,
> or any white politician in the South during the Jim Crow era.

I don't have any affection for Hezbollah but when it comes to foreign
policy, I tend to believe that we ought to work with the government in
power. We may not like it, at all, but a Hezbollah-backed leader has
formed a new government under the rules that in place in the
parliamentary system of government. They didn't violently overthrow
the government. Should the bombing 6 years ago be investigated? Yes
and we should keep pressing for that to happen regardless of the
government. But the government is still the government even if you
don't like them.

Judah

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