Since there was such a fuss about the report earlier in the mailing list, I
think this would be appropriate to forward along.  I also think we can
appreciate the message of the article being mostly developers here.

Russel
A WX Fanatic

-----Original Message-----
From: WX-TALK General weather discussions and talk
[mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]]On Behalf Of Jan Curtis
Sent: Thursday, June 06, 2002 9:14 AM
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: [WX-TALK] EPA Climate Change Report


Hi all:

The recent news blitz on the US Federal Government's acknowledgement that
recent global warming is indeed caused by humans is a bit premature as noted
in the following news item:



June 4, 2002

Cato Expert Finds Federal Climate Study in Error

WASHINGTON-Today, President Bush downplayed a recent EPA report on global
warming. According to the Associated Press, "'I read the report put out by
the bureaucracy,' Bush said dismissively Tuesday..."

Patrick J. Michaels, senior fellow in environmental studies at Cato
Institute and reviewer of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change, said, "The report, the so-called 2002 Climate Action Plan,
drew heavily from a previous report, the U.S. National Assessment of global
warming, which was rushed to publication 10 days before the 2000
presidential election. That report was commissioned by Vice President Gore
and Clinton science adviser John Gibbons, who hand-picked the senior
scientists constituting the 'Synthesis Team.'"

Michaels, also a professor of environmental sciences at the University of
Virginia, reviewed both reports. He found that the two climate models used
as the bases for each performed worse than a table of random numbers when
applied to the history of United States temperatures as the greenhouse
effect has changed. Michaels concluded, "Continued use of a scientific model
that cannot replicate reality is counter to the most basic principle of
science."

Even so, the National Assessment "Synthesis Team" chose to publicly ignore
Michaels' criticism. In private, however, they repeated his calculation and
found that the models indeed were no better than random numbers applied to
the U.S. temperature history.

Of the 2002 Climate Action Plan, Michaels says, "It is clear that the
integrity of science would have been better served if this report had never
been released. But now that it has, it should focus public discussion on
whether or not it is appropriate to use computer models that demonstrably do
not work when making public policy."

Reference from:


http://www.cato.org/new/06-02/06-04-02r-2.html


regards,


Jan Curtis
Wyoming State Climatologist
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