Hi Jamie and all,

[full disclosure: the misuse of the the term "ensemble" in climate research is common and irksome to me, so I must apologize if this pet peeve of mine unduly colors my comment.]

"Ensemble" is not the same as realization. "ensemble" is a group of (or a set of or a collection of) "realizations", "members', "samples", "items", etc. It makes sense to speak of "members of an ensemble" (e.g., in phrases like "the members of a musical ensemble", or "all members of a multi-model ensemble"). "realization" is also commonly used as, for example, in ensemble forecasting or in phrases like "each realization is run with identical forcing but with differences in the initial conditions".

On the other hand you would never refer to the members of a quartet as the "four ensembles"; rather they would be the "four members of the ensemble."

cheers,
Karl



On 11/7/14, 1:36 AM, Kettleborough, Jamie wrote:

Hello,

Is it worth introducing the new standard name 'ensemble' which is an alias for 'realization'? (Have we talked about this before?)

Initially we used 'realization' to try to be more general than model studies (i.e. samples from distributions produced by statistical techniques) but

1.I'm not sure there has been much exchange of non-model data using 'realization' (please correct me if I'm wrong)

2.The term 'realization' has caused confusion

Jamie

*From:*CF-metadata [mailto:[email protected]] *On Behalf Of *Karl Taylor
*Sent:* 07 November 2014 00:39
*To:* [email protected]
*Subject:* Re: [CF-metadata] realization | x of n

Dear Mark and all,

I think it be clearer to a broader community and more general to define:

standard_name = ensemble_size

description: The number of members constituting an ensemble.
This would be more generic than mentioning "forecasting", since the size of an ensemble of climate simulations (which are not necessarily "forecasts") might also be of interest and worth recording. best regards,
Karl

On 11/6/14, 3:51 AM, Hedley, Mark wrote:

        I suppose you could attach this information to the data variable using 
a scalar coordinate variable - is that what you think?

    yes, that seems suitable to me

    mark

    ________________________________________

    From: CF-metadata [[email protected]  
<mailto:[email protected]>] on behalf of Jonathan Gregory 
[[email protected]  <mailto:[email protected]>]

    Sent: 31 October 2014 15:25

    To:[email protected]  <mailto:[email protected]>

    Subject: [CF-metadata]  realization | x of n

    Dear Mark

    Thanks for clarifying the use-case. I agree that we don't have an existing 
way

    to provide this information, and it would be fine to give it a new standard

    name. I suppose you could attach this information to the data variable 
using a

    scalar coordinate variable - is that what you think?

    Best wishes

    Jonathan

    ----- Forwarded message from "Hedley, Mark"<[email protected]>  
<mailto:[email protected]>  -----

        Date: Fri, 31 Oct 2014 14:50:53 +0000

        From: "Hedley, Mark"<[email protected]>  
<mailto:[email protected]>

        To: John Graybeal<[email protected]>  
<mailto:[email protected]>

        CC: CF Metadata List<[email protected]>  
<mailto:[email protected]>

        Subject: Re: [CF-metadata] realization | x of n

        I'm happy to be more specific and stick with

        'original ensemble'

        as it meets my use cases just fine.

        So, I think that the proposal stands as:

        standard_name:

        number of realizations

        units:

        ''

        description:

        In a model or operational forecast, the number of member realizations 
within a given ensemble. This provides context for any specific realization, 
for example orienting a member relative to its original group (even if the 
group is no longer intact).

        many thanks

        mark

        ________________________________

        From: John Graybeal [[email protected]  
<mailto:[email protected]>]

        Sent: 30 October 2014 23:14

        To: Hedley, Mark

        Cc: CF Metadata List

        Subject: Re: [CF-metadata] realization | x of n

        Glad you liked the text!

        Regarding 'given ensemble' vs 'original ensemble', how can we resolve 
the ambiguity? That is, if you use this attribute, how will the user know what 
ensemble the attribute is in reference to?

        If the 'common practice among forecasters' (and required capability) is 
exclusively describing the originating ensemble, I propose the name and text 
should reflect that narrower definition, to avoid misuse. (I'm hoping for this 
case.)

        If the common practice includes both use cases, somehow the user needs to derive 
which meaning applies -- either we need to define two standard names, or suggest in the 
definition that the variable name or long_name should resolve it, or something. (We could 
be deliberately vague as well, but a sentence like "This could refer to either the 
original ensemble for this realization, or a more recent collection in which the 
realization occurs." would help make that explicit.)

        John

        On Oct 30, 2014, at 10:44, Hedley, Mark <[email protected]  
<mailto:[email protected]><mailto:[email protected]>  
<mailto:[email protected]>> wrote:

        Thank you for the feeedback

        John:

        I like the text

           In a model or operational forecast, the number of member 
realizations within a given ensemble. This provides context for any specific 
realization, for example orienting a member relative to its original group 
(even if the group is no longer intact).

        I would like to use this as is in the proposal.

            Reviewing this and going back to your original request, there is still a 
likely point of confusion for users -- it isn't obvious that "given ensemble" 
refers not to the currently constituted collection, but to the one originally created 
with this realization.

            If you want that to be the use case for this standard_name (for 
everyone), I think 'within a given ensemble' needs to explicitly say something 
like 'within its originally created ensemble'. And perhaps the standard name 
itself should follow that thought, something like 
'initial_number_of_realizations'.

        I had thought about this, but my consideration was that there are 
ensembles which are created after the fact, not necessarily in the 'originally 
created' set; e.g. multi-model ensembles.  I considered leaving the name so 
that it could be used in this context as well.  This is not a strong use case 
for me, so I would be content to be more specific if that is preferred, but I 
didn't see the need to, so I left it more general.  I'm happy to be guided on 
this aspect.

        Jonathan:

            Maybe you are dealing with an intermediate case, having a subset of 
the ensemble members, and you want to record how many there originally were in 
total. Is this a common use case? It seems rather surprising to me. But I'm not 
sure that's what you mean.

        Yes, this is what I mean.  I have one of the ensemble members, I have 
chosen it from the collection and passed it to a friend, for reasons best known 
to myself; I want to label it as member x from emsemble of size y.  I am 
confidently assured this is common practice amongst forecasters and the 
capability is required.  It has been an explicit part of the GRIB specification 
for years.

                seven of nine

            But this seems different. It's not the number of members there are, 
but the ordinal number (7) of this particular member. Why can't that be 
recorded in a variable with the existing standard_name of realization?

        there are two pieces of information here, in CF terms this is:

        realization = 7

        number_of_realizations = 9

        I just unpacked this into a single label, to illustrate the information 
wanted (but I seem to have reduced clarity again; never mind).

        mark

        ________________________________

        From: John Graybeal [[email protected]  
<mailto:[email protected]><mailto:[email protected]>  
<mailto:[email protected]>]

        Sent: 30 October 2014 17:10

        To: Hedley, Mark

        Cc: CF Metadata List

        Subject: Re: [CF-metadata] FW: realization | x of n

        Hi Mark,

        It is a worry if the definition is a repetition or variant of the words 
in the name. In particular, the word 'realization' will be meaningful to 
modelers/forecasters but not universally.

        My first desire was to generalize the term (e.g., 'how many entities 
are in a collection of that type of entity'), but I suspect that will be 
annoying to the primary users. So can we make it specific and say

           In a model or operational forecast, the number of member 
realizations within a given ensemble. This provides context for any specific 
realization, for example orienting a member relative to its original group 
(even if the group is no longer intact).

        Or else, define what we mean by 'realization' and 'ensemble'.

        Reviewing this and going back to your original request, there is still a likely 
point of confusion for users -- it isn't obvious that "given ensemble" refers 
not to the currently constituted collection, but to the one originally created with this 
realization.

        In my use case, the whole ensemble is not present, I only have a subset 
of the members. I have a metadata element telling me how many members there 
were at the time the ensemble was created, which I would like to encode.

        If you want that to be the use case for this standard_name (for 
everyone), I think 'within a given ensemble' needs to explicitly say something 
like 'within its originally created ensemble'. And perhaps the standard name 
itself should follow that thought, something like 
'initial_number_of_realizations'.

        John

        ______________________________________

        From: CF-metadata [[email protected]  
<mailto:[email protected]><mailto:[email protected]>  
<mailto:[email protected]>] on behalf of Jonathan Gregory [[email protected]  
<mailto:[email protected]><mailto:[email protected]>  
<mailto:[email protected]>]

        Sent: 30 October 2014 16:40

        To:[email protected]  
<mailto:[email protected]><mailto:[email protected]>  
<mailto:[email protected]>

        Subject: [CF-metadata]  FW:   realization | x of n

        Dear Mark

            Please may people raise any further concerns about a new standard 
name:

               number_of_realizations

            with a canonical unit of

               ''

            and a description of

               The number of member realizations within a given ensemble.

        My concern is probably the same one as before. Sorry about that. Does 
this

        mean the number of members the ensemble has got? If it does, why does 
it differ

        from the ensemble dimension? If the ensemble dimension has been 
collapsed to

        size 1, we could record this in cell_methods. Maybe you are dealing 
with an

        intermediate case, having a subset of the ensemble members, and you 
want to

        record how many there originally were in total. Is this a common use 
case?

        It seems rather surprising to me. But I'm not sure that's what you mean.

            This name enables a single member from an ensemble to explicitly be 
labelled, e.g.

               seven_of_nine

            which is often required in operational forecasting.

        But this seems different. It's not the number of members there are, but 
the

        ordinal number (7) of this particular member. Why can't that be 
recorded in a

        variable with the existing standard_name of realization?

        Cheers

        Jonathan

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        On Oct 30, 2014, at 01:40, Hedley, Mark <[email protected]  
<mailto:[email protected]><mailto:[email protected]>  
<mailto:[email protected]>> wrote:

        Thank you for the discussion on the number of realizations in an 
ensemble.

        Please may people raise any further concerns about a new standard name:

           number_of_realizations

        with a canonical unit of

           ''

        and a description of

           The number of member realizations within a given ensemble.

        This name enables a single member from an ensemble to explicitly be 
labelled, e.g.

           seven_of_nine

        which is often required in operational forecasting.

        I would like this to be added to the standard name list.

        thank you

        mark

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