While I am not saying that Gartner, Forrester recommendations aren't useful to managers they've been way off in the past with their predictions.
I remember in the early nineties where they told corporations that the upcoming Windows 3 was worthless and that OS/2 would be on 90% of desktops in three years. In 1998 they predicted that by 2005 B2b would be a 500 billion dollar industry. I remember that one well because I used it in a business plan at the time. Remember that when the made the prediction about ColdFusion it was about version 5.0. They probably even weren't aware that it would be rebuilt on top of java, CF sales have risen since 2002 so they were plainly wrong. Rick Mason On Sat, 26 Feb 2005 00:02:41 +0800, James Holmes <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > Here is the exact wording of various parts of the September 2002 paper, > "Application Development Skill and Technology Trends": > > "Gartner's analysis indicates that the use of JavaScript and VBScript will > grow by 2 percent to 3 percent a year through 2006. During the same period, > the use of Perl will be declining by the same 2 percent to 3 percent; and > the use of ColdFusion will decline 10 percent a year. > > The growth of client-side scripts (i.e., JavaScript and VBScript) relates to > the fact that de facto standard technologies - Java or Microsoft - cannot > offer a competing technology for graphical user interface (GUI) development. > On the server side, both Java and Microsoft are offering powerful JSP and > ASP technologies. The latter will cause a decline in the current popularity > of Perl and ColdFusion." > > "As a final word, Gartner offers IT executives and managers the following > recommendations: > .... > Align AD technology and tool strategy with Microsoft or Java - or both. The > rest have become niche areas." > > > -----Original Message----- > From: Dave Carabetta [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] > Sent: Friday, 25 February 2005 11:33 > To: CF-Talk > Subject: Re: CFMX Development Speed > > On Fri, 25 Feb 2005 23:19:42 +0800, James Holmes > <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > Tha last thing I read from Gartner told business managers to migrate > > away from CF, Python etc to J2EE or .NET as the others were "niche > products." > > > > Perhaps that's a misinterpreted distillation of what they really said? > If they really said that verbatim or something close, it just goes to show > the analyst's ignorance. Based on the above, they essentially said "Migrate > away from languages and move to platforms." CF is built *on top of* J2EE > standards, and .NET is just a platform upon which several languages can be > used to build applications, so it seems like they're suggesting to move from > apples to oranges. > > Regards, > Dave. > > > ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~| Find out how CFTicket can increase your company's customer support efficiency by 100% http://www.houseoffusion.com/banners/view.cfm?bannerid=49 Message: http://www.houseoffusion.com/lists.cfm/link=i:4:196569 Archives: http://www.houseoffusion.com/cf_lists/threads.cfm/4 Subscription: http://www.houseoffusion.com/lists.cfm/link=s:4 Unsubscribe: http://www.houseoffusion.com/cf_lists/unsubscribe.cfm?user=89.70.4 Donations & Support: http://www.houseoffusion.com/tiny.cfm/54
