-----Original Message-----
From: Adrian Cooper <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Date: Saturday, September 16, 2000 1:00 PM
Subject: Re: WOT: Allaire stock price
>
>----- Original Message -----
>From: "Len Conrad" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
>Sent: Saturday, September 16, 2000 7:39 PM.
>>
>> Investors can't be faulted for expecting MS, medium- and long-term,
>> to own every square inch of the W2K/NT4 Internet services platform.
>> ie, investors could very well think Allaire is already a lame duck,
>> imminent roadkill waiting, lame on highway, for the steamroller. Even
>> if MS gets split in two or three, they are going to own that
>> OS/Internet platform and give away whatever tools it takes to kill
>> off all the Allaire's.
>
>That might be true of less established, more exposed, non-quoted
companies, but
>not the Allaires of this world. CF has been compared to ASP for along
time, and
>CF goes from strength to strength on merit.
Want to bet your kids' college fund on this? :-)
>The scenario you overlook is that if M$ targets a company with critical
mass,
>like Hotmail and many others, it becomes acquisition target - that is a
much
>more likely scenario for Allaire IMO.
That's a thought too scary to even comtemplate. I don't see it
happening though. Usually MS does this as a last ditch to gain market
share. Considering the fact that ASP probably runs on 10 (100?) times
as many servers as CF, I doubt very much they're worried about Allaire.
>Allaire have to diversify though - they are too much of a one product
company
>right now, and it is no longer a two horse race between CF and ASP -
there is
>now XML, PHP and others to contend with - and if one thing has been
proven
>throughout the history of the industry - open standards and
collaborative
>efforts will almost never be overhauled by proprietory commercial
products - I
>think Linux is a classic example as is the Apache webserver.
I think these are excellent points. Revenues from $1500 server products
can't sustain them. I guess things like Spectra, with it's much higher
price tag are attempts to address this issue. Unfortunately, at the
same time, they seem to be foundering a bit with all the problems with
4.5 server and studio.
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