----- Original Message -----
From: "William Irvine" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Sent: 18 September 2000 12:33
> Does anyone have any insight on what's causing perceived turmoil with
> Allaire (ALLR) stock? Their stock closed at 17.5 on Friday amid several
> rumors.
Yes - broadly speaking - it is participating in the_actual_turmoil of tech
stocks in general - which continues here again in the UK today. Not sure about
the rumors though.
>
> Disclaimer: I don't own any ALLR stock, however, I am concerned about taking
> our planned jump into Spectra if Allaire is not healthy.
You should look at Allaire as a company rather than just its stock price. The
stock price has become part of the high-tech speculation boom, which has
resulted (IMO) in a valuation which is way, way beyond that which it's
fundamentals justify. Ironically - Allaire has another problem IMO - as it
becomes profitable (rather than speculative) it will become increasingly
valued on fundamentals, rather than out and out speculation.
In terms of health - you should look at profit, loss, balance sheet and cash
reserves as well as the underlying prospects for the company and its products
in general.
>
> There are take-over rumors (which is normal when any stock looses this
> much),
Takeover rumors usually push the stock price way up.
rumors of corporate turmoil, and concerns over earnings. (let's face
> it, Cold Fusion is an often specified technology of dot-com start-ups... as
> the start-ups fail... well...)
I don't think that has much to do with it - after all - once a startup has
actually purchased Cold Fusion at startup - the only incremental revenue for
Allaire after that is upgrades and additional server licences if the dotcom is
successful.
The extreme danger though for Allaire is that it is much too much of a one
product company in the face of competing technologies like SOAP, XML, PHP....
etc... Remember Lotus, Borland, Wordperfect, Wordstar, dBase.....? Novell is
another example of a company which will go the same way IMO. But Cold Fusion
is an excellent product with an excellent following, and whatever happens or
not to Allaire, it will survive.
Adrian Cooper.
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